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Evacuation models, which seek to calculate evacuation time estimates (ETEs) and evaluate evacuation strategies, are based on assumptions concerning human behavior. One of the most consistent assumptions is that once an evacuation order is given, people will proceed to an evacuation point. ETEs are further assumed to be a function of network congestion along arcs. We test these assumptions through a survey of residents of Key West, Florida who experienced evacuation orders associated with Hurricane Wilma in 2005. Of particular interest are the trips residents made between the time the evacuation order was given and the deadline for evacuation, what we call pre-evacuation trips. Such trips were made by people who evacuated as well as by those who waited out the storm. That is, traffic on the transportation network is not solely limited to people seeking to evacuate. Survey data indicate three important aspects of pre-evacuation trip making behavior that run counter to common evacuation modeling assumptions. First, trip delays at stops are longer than delays on links. Second, trip delays are associated with trip purposes, which often are not to evacuate an area, and there is evidence of trip chaining. Finally, patterns of pre-evacuation trips show a dispersal of origins and destinations resulting in pre-evacuation trips that flow in many directions, not just toward evacuation points.
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- Pre-evacuation Trip Behavior
Bruce A. Ralston
- Springer Netherlands
- Chapter 19
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