Predicting charitable donations using social media

We study the relationship between chatter on social media and observed actions concerning charitable donation. One hypothesis is that a fraction of those who act will also tweet about it, implying a linear relation. However, if the contagion is present, we expect a superlinear scaling. We consider two scenarios: donations in response to a natural disaster, and regular donations. We empirically validate the model using two location-paired sets of social media and donation data, corresponding to the two scenarios. Results show a quadratic relation between chatter and action in emergency response case. In case of regular donations, we observe a near-linear relation. Additionally, regular donations can be explained by demographic factors, while for a disaster response social media is a much better predictor of action. A contagion model is used to predict the near-quadratic scaling for the disaster response case. This suggests that diffusion is present in emergency response case, while regular charity does not spread via social network. Understanding the scaling behavior that relates social media chatter to physical actions is an important step in estimating the extent of a response and for determining social media strategies to affect the response.