Prediction and Analysis of Water Supply-Demand Balance in Binzhou City

Binzhou, Shandong is located in the hinterland of the lower Yellow River Delta with the typical sub-humid warm temperate monsoon climate. The average per capita water resources in Binzhou (265 m³ per person) is considerably lower than the national standards (2100 m³ per person). To study the current situation of water resources utilization and supply pressure in Binzhou city, the grey system prediction model and quota prediction method were used to predict the near and long-term water demand. The results showed that the shortage of water resources in Binzhou would be more serious in the foreseeable future, with an estimated water shortage of 3.91 × 10⁸ m³ in 2025 and 2.90 × 10⁸ m³ in 2035. In the future, agricultural water consumption would still be the largest portion in Binzhou, but its increment would be rather small, and industrial water consumption would increase obviously, compared with 2018, the growth rates in 2025 and 2035 are 109.9% and 192.7%. The demand for domestic water and ecological water would rise due to the development of urbanization. Based on the prediction results of water supply-demand balance, over 3 × 10⁸ m³ shortfall in water supply, Binzhou needs to improve the water supply capacity to meet the water demand of production and living.