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1993 | Buch

Price Stabilization in the 1990s: An Overview Kapitel lesen Erstes Kapitel lesen

Price Stabilization in the 1990s

Domestic and International Policy Requirements

herausgegeben von: Kumiharu Shigehara

Verlag: Palgrave Macmillan UK

Enthalten in: Professional Book Archive

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Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Price Stabilization in the 1990s: An Overview

1. Price Stabilization in the 1990s: An Overview
Abstract
The excellent organization of this conference on price stabilization makes my job of summarizing easier. I should therefore begin by thanking the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies at the Bank of Japan for the superb intellectual co-ordination both before and during the two productive days of the conference.
John B. Taylor

Some Lessons from the Great Inflations

2. Some Lessons from the Great Inflations
Abstract
From the mid-1960s to the 1980s, the world experienced the most prolonged and widespread peacetime inflation in recorded history. For the years 1965–88, not a single country had a zero or negative average rate of inflation (World Bank, 1990). The lowest reported average rate is 2 per cent (Rwanda). Two countries, Bolivia and Argentina, have average rates of more than 150 per cent for the 23 year period, and 44 countries have average rates in double digits or above. In the seven major developed countries compound annual rates of inflation ranged from 5 per cent to more than 15 per cent in the years of peak inflation, 1970–82 (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 1990).
Allan H. Meltzer

Lessons from Moderate Inflations

3. Lessons from Moderate Inflations
Abstract
Few topics have sustained the interest of policymakers and economists as long and as intensively as inflation. There is no mystery about why: it is the ‘almost unbroken chronicle in every country which has a history, back to the earliest dawn of economic record, of a progressive deterioration in the real value of the successive legal tenders which have represented money’ (Keynes, 1923, p. 63).
Stanley Fischer

Price Performance and Sources of Inflation

Frontmatter
4. Inflation in North America
Abstract
The past quarter century has seen inflation in North America accelerate and recede, and has seen our stock of knowledge about inflation steadily accumulate.1 The combination of these two events has transformed our attitudes toward inflation and led us to the point at which we now dare to plan for and talk of achieving zero inflation. A central purpose of this chapter is to evaluate the possibility of achieving and maintaining zero inflation in the United States and Canada in the decade ahead. It begins by reviewing the inflation record of the two countries, looking both at their separate performances and their inflation differential. This review highlights the questions that must be answered if zero inflation is to be a possibility.
Michael Parkin, Ralph C. Bryant, Paul Jenkins
5. Inflation in Western Europe
Abstract
This chapter will critically discuss the statistical modelling of inflation, defined as the rate of change in a deflator for gross domestic product or gross national product. Statistical work on inflation is not only important for forecasting future inflation, but also for the design, implementation and evaluation of monetary policy. In a closed economy, or an open economy on floating exchange rates, the rate of growth of the money supply is correlated with the rate of inflation, but usually with a long and variable lag. Hence, in a forecasting context, it is likely that regressions of inflation on current or immediate past rates of change in prices, wages and other cost factors together with measures of demand in the goods or labour markets will produce more explanatory power. This explains why professional forecasters tend to emphasize cost factors and the state of ‘excess demand’ rather than monetary developments. At the same time, academic researchers criticize such work for being ad hoc and not based on optimizing behaviour, for data-mining, especially as far as lags are concerned, and for causing confusion between changes in relative prices and changes in the absolute price level.
Eduard J. Bomhoff, Anthony Coleby, André Icard
6. Inflation and Monetary Policy in Pacific Basin Developing Economies
Abstract
Inflation was one of the major macroeconomic topics of the 1970s. A decade of accelerating inflation culminated in the double-digit inflation associated with the first oil price shock of 1973–4. A second worldwide inflationary spurt occurred contemporaneously with the second oil price shock of 1980. Refuting a popularly held view that inflation is now under control, Figure 6.1 shows that worldwide inflation accelerated after 1986 and reached a record level in 1990.
Maxwell J. Fry, Glenn R. Stevens, Han Eung Kim, Zainal Aznam Yusof, Peter Nicholl
7. Japanese Monetary Policy from 1970 to 1990: Rules or Discretion?
Abstract
Both the Japanese economy and the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy have exhibited large swings over the last two decades. This chapter summarizes some of the key features of the experience and attempts to draw lessons from it for the conduct of monetary policy, especially regarding the rules versus discretion debate.
Kazuo Ueda, Koichi Hamada, Jack H. Beebe

Measurement and Indicators of Inflation

Frontmatter
8. Measuring the Aggregate Price Level: Implications for Economic Performance and Policy
Abstract
A comparison of economic performance of nations usually involves a minimum of three measures, the unemployment rate, inflation rate, and growth rate of real output per person (or per employee-hour).1 Of these three, the measurement of two (inflation and real output per person) requires an accurate estimate of the aggregate price level. The inflation rate, of course, is simply the rate of change of the aggregate price level, while real output is equal to nominal expenditure or income divided by the aggregate price level. In this sense accurate measurement of the aggregate price level is one of the most important tasks of national accounting.
Robert J. Gordon, Richard G. Davis, Georg Rich
9. Indicators of Inflation
Abstract
The purpose of this analysis is to review and analyse several indicators or information variables for inflation that have been proposed recently. The traditional and widely accepted perspective was that a monetary aggregate is an accurate indicator of the price level in the economy and that the growth rate of such an aggregate is an indicator of the sustainable rate of inflation. Careful statements of this position acknowledged that the indicator role of monetary aggregates and/or their rates of growth is appropriate for the analysis of long-run, equilibrium, or steady-states of an economy. From month to month, quarter to quarter, and even from year to year the size of a nominal monetary aggregate or its rate of growth should not be expected to precisely or even accurately track the price level or inflation, because the economic analysis that is the foundation of the monetary indicator proposition assumes away transitory fluctuations in real output and the velocity of the monetary aggregate.
Robert H. Rasche, Peter Nicholl, Takatoshi Ito

Price Objectives and Policy Requirements

Frontmatter
10. Price Stability and the Monetary Order
Abstract
William Stanley Jevons remarked that the study of money sometimes seemed to stand in the same position to economics as that of perpetual motion to physics, or squaring the circle to mathematics.1 That was in 1875, but the capacity of monetary economists, not always from the fringes of the discipline, to generate extraordinary ideas did not diminish in the twentieth century. Whatever Keynes may have meant to tell his colleagues in the 1930s, by the 1960s his name had become associated with the idea that government stimulus to aggregate demand, accommodated by monetary expansion, could create a permanent increase in the economy’s level of output (and perhaps its rate of growth too), at a negligible cost in inflation, which was in any event largely a non-monetary phenomenon, and economically benign into the bargain. The world economy is still recovering from the great inflation which these ideas helped to create.
David Laidler
11. Achieving Exchange Rate Stability in a Tripolar World: A Target-Zone System with a Rotating Anchor
Abstract
This chapter considers approaches to choosing an anchor in a target zone exchange rate system among the three major currencies: the yen, the DM and the dollar. Though there is as yet no impetus for a world target zone regime, this situation may well change over the next decade. The present G-7 coordination is generally considered to have been successful in reducing exchange market volatility, but the evidence presented in this chapter calls this view into question. The results here also cast doubt on the view that exchange rate volatility would substantially abate if monetary authorities could only succeed in bringing inflation all the way down to zero. For cross-rates between the dollar, yen and DM, the link between inflation rate levels (or differences) and exchange rate volatility appears tenuous at best.
Kenneth Rogoff, Donald L. Kohn, Reiner König
Backmatter
Metadaten
Titel
Price Stabilization in the 1990s
herausgegeben von
Kumiharu Shigehara
Copyright-Jahr
1993
Verlag
Palgrave Macmillan UK
Electronic ISBN
978-1-349-12893-8
Print ISBN
978-1-349-12895-2
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-12893-8