Probabilistic Characterization of the Axial Load Bearing Capacity of a Concrete Column Exposed to the Standard Fire

To demonstrate adequate structural fire safety for exceptional designs, the uncertainties of the design input parameters must be explicitly considered. In this contribution, the case study included in ISO/CD TR 24679-8:2020 of a concrete column subject to a standardized heating regime is revisited considering improved uncertainty modelling for the input parameters. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to obtain the distribution of the axial load bearing capacity of the column, \({P}_{\max}\), at 240 min of ISO 834 standard fire exposure. The obtained distribution however does not fit any distribution type commonly assumed for the resistance effect. To get more detailed information on the parameters governing the distribution of \({P}_{\max}\), and to allow for the application of more efficient calculation procedures and the development of design guidance, a detailed analysis of the obtained distribution for the load bearing capacity is conducted. The effect of each of the input parameters’ uncertainty on the column capacity is quantified using three different methods of sensitivity analysis. Furthermore the distribution type describing the concrete load bearing capacity for the considered standard fire exposure is evaluated in detail. It is concluded that the parameter defining the quantile of the concrete strength retention is the main contributor to the variability of the column capacity at 240 min standard fire exposure. Furthermore, it is found that the column capacity can be described by a mixed lognormal distribution, considering constituent lognormal distributions for fixed concrete strength retention parameter values. Based on these findings, improvements for probability of failure calculations of fire-exposed concrete columns are developed. The analysis provides insight for the reliability-based design of concrete columns exposed to fire, achieving a specified target safety level.