1. Probabilistic Group Decision-Making Using BWT

In this study, we propose a probabilistic group decision-making method based on the Best-Worst Tradeoff method (BWT) and the Bayesian approach. BWT is a pairwise comparison method that is used to elicit the tradeoffs among a set of attributes (criteria) in a multi-criteria decision-making problem. While BWT is suitable for a single decision-maker situation, Bayesian BWT is suitable for aggregating the tradeoffs among a number of criteria coming from a number of decision-makers or experts. The proposed method aggregates the scaling constants (weights), and assigns a confidence number (between zero and one), to inform about the confidence we have about the ranking order of the criteria. We demonstrate how the method is used in a real-world setting. Data is collected from three experts on ranking a number of European seaports that are performing differently with respect to a number of relevant criteria. We think that the method has great potential in real-world group decision-making problems.