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Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment

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01.09.2024 | Original Paper

Probabilistic landslide hazard and indicator-based risk assessment in a data-scarce Indian Himalayan terrain

verfasst von: Suvam Das, Shantanu Sarkar, Debi Prasanna Kanungo

Erschienen in: Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment | Ausgabe 9/2024

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Abstract

The study aims to present probabilistic landslide hazard and indicator-based risk analysis for the Kalimpong region of Darjeeling Himalaya. In doing this, a multi-temporal inventory was prepared for a 51-year period (1971 to 2021). For hazard modelling, the study area was divided into 4,042 slope unit (SU) based terrain segments, and subsequently, landslide spatial (P_S), temporal (P_T), and magnitude (P_M) probability estimates were obtained for each SU. The P_S was estimated using the binary logistic regression (BLR) model, achieving a success-rate accuracy of 76.5%. The P_T was estimated using Poisson modelling, with mean exceedance probabilities of 0.07, 0.12, and 0.15 for the next 5, 10, and 15 years, respectively. For P_M estimation, the inverse-gamma function was used, resulting probabilities of 0.81 and 0.17 for landslide sizes of 1,300 and 15,000 m², respectively, with a rollover position at 1,378 m². Upon obtaining reliable predictions from the selected modelling approaches, the SU-based spatial integration of P_S, P_T, and P_M estimates resulted in six landslide hazard scenarios for the next 5, 10, and 15 years. Subsequently, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method was used to define indicator-based resource damage potentiality (RDP), and then integrated with the 5 and 10 year hazard scenarios for risk assessment. The resulting risk maps indicate that the areas of Kalijhora, Rambi, Teesta Bazar, Labha, Nimbong, Suruk, Zero, and Tanyang are in moderate to high-risk zones. It is envisaged that the findings of this study may support data-informed decision-making within the investigated area.

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Titel: Probabilistic landslide hazard and indicator-based risk assessment in a data-scarce Indian Himalayan terrain
verfasst von: Suvam Das
Shantanu Sarkar
Debi Prasanna Kanungo
Publikationsdatum: 01.09.2024
Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Erschienen in: Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment / Ausgabe 9/2024
Print ISSN: 1435-9529
Elektronische ISSN: 1435-9537
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-024-03861-0

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