Probabilistic Risk Analysis in Wind-Integrated Electric Power System Operation

Wind power is regarded as an environment-friendly energy source and the main alternative to the conventional energy resources. Wind power is being rapidly installed in many parts of the world and is considered to be the fastest growing energy source. The uncertain and intermittent nature of wind power, however, creates significant challenges in maintaining the reliability of wind-integrated power systems. The risk in system operation increases as the uncertainty and the amount of wind power connected to the system are increased. While operating a wind-integrated power system, the system operator requires sufficient knowledge of wind power that will be available in the near future to make decisions in committing adequate generation and allocating the reserves in appropriate generating units in order to operate the system economically and within acceptable operating risks. The wind power at a short time in future depends upon the initial condition, and it follows a diurnal pattern. This chapter presents a statistical method using the conditional probability approach to quantify the risks associated with wind power commitment. The impact of rising and falling wind trends in different seasons are considered while evaluating the operating risks.