Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1. Frontmatter

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2. Ingredients

   1. Frontmatter

   2. Chapter 1. Introduction

      • Open Access

      Mathilde B. Sørensen, Jörn Behrens, Stefano Lorito, Finn Løvholt, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Fatemeh Jalayer, Jacopo Selva, Irina Rafliana

      Abstract

      Probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment methods have evolved quickly over the past 10 to 15 years. While earthquake risk, which has been treated by probabilistic methods since the 1960s, can be represented by a single workflow, tsunami risk is characterized by several different and cascading workflows, and it is much more dependent on numerical simulations. Given the rapidly evolving research landscape, there is a need to establish best practices for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment (abbreviated PTHA and PTRA, respectively) to improve reliability, comparability and reproducibility of studies applying such methods. More than 50 tsunami scientists have joined forces to develop this so-called cookbook providing recommendations and workflows for both PTHA and PTRA.

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   3. Chapter 2. Frameworks for Assessing Tsunami Hazard and Risk

      • Open Access

      Natalia Zamora, Anita Grezio, Maria Papathoma-Köhle, Fatemeh Jalayer, Dimitra Salmanidou, Tom Parsons, Eric L. Geist, Jacopo Selva, Mathilde B. Sørensen, Irina Rafliana

      Abstract

      Tsunamis are multiscale phenomena resulting from a water column displacement that may be induced by multiple sources, and range from local scale inundation processes to ocean-wide scale wave propagation. Different strategies may be required to model tsunami evolution at different scales and to characterize various intensity measures. Research in tsunami hazard and risk has focused mostly on the tsunami effects such as the wave heights or flow depths. This chapter reviews the evolution of tsunami hazard and risk assessment methodologies, with particular emphasis on the development of probabilistic approaches. Building on advances in numerical modeling and uncertainty analysis, two main frameworks for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis (PTHA/PTRA) are described. Framework 1 (FW1) focuses on quantitative methods, including fully simulation-based assessments (FW1A), integration of hazard with vulnerability and loss models (FW1B), consideration of dynamic processes such as tidal and sea-level variations (FW1C), and approaches using limited scenario sets (FW1D). Framework 2 (FW2) complements this by incorporating indicator-based vulnerability assessments, both physical (FW2A) and social, multi-dimensional (FW2B).

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   4. Chapter 3. Source Selection and Their Activity Rate

      • Open Access

      Finn Løvholt, Roberto Basili, Andrea Rovida, Stefano Lorito, Fabrizio Romano, Mathilde B. Sørensen, Carl B. Harbitz, Jacopo Selva, Raphaël Paris, Anita Grezio, Cléa Denamiel

      Abstract

      This chapter presents source selection methods for tsunami hazard analysis. Four types of sources are considered, earthquakes, landslides, volcanoes, and atmospheric sources, each outlined in different sections. The descriptions and methods are mainly based on published literature. The presented procedures describe the selection of locations, sizes, parameters and probabilities of the sources, and are divided into three different steps. Step 1 consists of the selection of the potential source areas and the selection of the types of sources that may impact the selected target areas, Step 2 the source parameterisation, and Step 3 the representation of the source ensemble and its probabilities.

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   5. Chapter 4. Source Modelling

      • Open Access

      Finn Løvholt, Shane Murphy, Stefano Lorito, Fabrizio Romano, Carl B. Harbitz, Jacopo Selva, Raphaël Paris, Anita Grezio, Cléa Denamiel

      Abstract

      This chapter presents modeling procedures for simulating all possible source processes for earthquakes, landslides, volcanoes, and atmopheric sources in scenario based Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis. It is based on the input described in Chap. 3. The individual source models are presented in four different subsections, and include models that inherit different degree of complexity. 

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   6. Chapter 5. Hydrodynamic Modelling

      • Open Access

      Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga, Maria Ana Baptista, Jörn Behrens, Miquel Canals, Cléa Denamiel, Utku Kânoğlu, Galderic Lastras, Finn Løvholt, Jorge Macías, Shane Murphy, Raphaël Paris

      Abstract

      This chapter presents several methods to simulate tsunami propagation, inundation, and impact on land. The chapter is subdivided into five sections: Preparation of Data, Interfaces, Propagation, Inundation, and Testing. The order of the sections represents a typical sequence of tsunami modelling in a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) workflow.

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   7. Chapter 6. Exposure Modelling

      • Open Access

      Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Naveen Ragu Ramalingam, Fatemeh Jalayer, Danijel Schorlemmer, Helen Crowley, Rade Rajkovchevski

      Abstract

      Exposure is defined as “the situation of people, infrastructure, housing, production capacities and other tangible human assets located in hazard-prone areas” (UNDRR 2017). Exposure models in this chapter are mostly focused on the identification of population, buildings, and critical infrastructure at risk. Conceptually, exposure is a necessary, but not sufficient, determinant of risk, since it is possible to be exposed but not vulnerable to a hazard (as for instance, by living in a floodplain but having sufficient means to modify the asset’s characteristics to avoid or mitigate future potential losses, or by occupying a building in an earthquake prone region that was designed and built according to earthquake-resistant provisions). Within a risk assessment, this means that an exposure model is always required for estimating the losses on population and/or exposed assets.

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   8. Chapter 7. Vulnerability Modelling

      • Open Access

      Marco Baiguera, Ignacio Aguirre Ayerbe, Raffaele De Risi, Marta Del Zoppo, Ufuk Hancilar, Rozana Himaz, Maria Papathoma-Köhle, Tiziana Rossetto, Mislav Stepinac

      Abstract

      Vulnerability, understood as the conditions determined by physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes that increase the potential for an individual, a community, assets or systems to be negatively affected by hazards, is a key component when assessing tsunami risk. Vulnerability can be affected by human interventions. Hence, the study of vulnerability is essential to support decision-making (e.g., land use planning and emergency planning) for more effective risk management. Vulnerability is most commonly represented through a vulnerability function that expresses the likelihood of achieving a value of a loss parameter for increasing values of a hazard intensity measure.

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   9. Chapter 8. Communicating Tsunami Risk and Uncertainties

      • Open Access

      Nikos Kalligeris, Irina Rafliana, Lorenzo Cugliari, Harald Spahn, Andrea Cerase, Jörn Lauterjung, Dimitra Salmanidou, Musavver Didem Cambaz, František Babič, Ignacio Aguirre Ayerbe, Alessandro Amato

      Abstract

      As communicating science and risks becomes a global concern, there is an increased demand for scientists’ engagement with the public. This chapter aims to provide scientists with guidance and background information on how to appropriately engage in, co-design, prepare, and deliver tsunami risk communication, with and to different audiences. Risk communication is not only about classical, typically unidirectional science communication (from science to public or end users), but also about a range of different, multidirectional, interactive, and iterative communication approaches with all relevant actors related to tsunami risks. The chapter covers the three main pillars of tsunami risk communication and the process of building an effective communication strategy for the respective problem. First, we have to deal with understanding the context of what has to be communicated, by and to whom. Then it comes to the choices of the appropriate methods and tools for risk communication. Last but not least, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the communication process will give indications for possible improvements.

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   10. Chapter 9. Final Remarks

       • Open Access

       Jörn Behrens, Fatemeh Jalayer, Shane Murphy, Jacopo Selva, Mathilde B. Sørensen, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Stefano Lorito, Finn Løvholt, Irina Rafliana

       Abstract

       The management and choices made for individual components of PTHA and PTRA are complex tasks and require experience and skill. In this chapter further more general considerations on the current state, still existing research gaps, and practical advice are given. We try to also look into the future by drafting a vision for the development of PTHA and PTRA.

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