Skip to main content

2015 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

4. Problems with Constructing Tests to Accept the Null Hypothesis

verfasst von : André Rogatko, Steven Piantadosi

Erschienen in: Interdisciplinary Bayesian Statistics

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

Futility designs have been proposed and used by constructing classical (non-Bayesian) hypothesis tests such that the decision of therapeutic interest is to accept the null hypothesis. A consequence is that the probability of accepting (failing to reject) the null when the null is false is unknown. Reversal of the conventional null and alternative hypotheses is not required either to demonstrate futility/nonsuperiority, or to align type I and II errors with their consequences. Conventional methods to test whether the response to the investigational agent is superior to a comparative control (superiority trial) are preferable and in the case that the null hypothesis is rejected, the associated type I error is known.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literatur
1.
Zurück zum Zitat Palesch, Y.Y., Tilley B.C.: An efficient multi-stage, single-arm Phase II futility design for ALS. Amyotroph. Later. Scler. Other Mot. Neuron Disord. 5, 55–56 (2004).CrossRef Palesch, Y.Y., Tilley B.C.: An efficient multi-stage, single-arm Phase II futility design for ALS. Amyotroph. Later. Scler. Other Mot. Neuron Disord. 5, 55–56 (2004).CrossRef
2.
Zurück zum Zitat Elm, J.J., Goetz, C.G., Ravina, B., Shannon, K., Wooten, G.F., Tanner, C.M., et al.: A responsive outcome for Parkinson’s disease neuroprotection futility studies. Ann. Neurol. 57, 197–203 (2005).CrossRef Elm, J.J., Goetz, C.G., Ravina, B., Shannon, K., Wooten, G.F., Tanner, C.M., et al.: A responsive outcome for Parkinson’s disease neuroprotection futility studies. Ann. Neurol. 57, 197–203 (2005).CrossRef
4.
Zurück zum Zitat Palesch, Y.Y., Tilley, B.C., Sackett, D.L., Johnston, K.C., Woolson, R.: Applying a phase II futility study design to therapeutic stroke trials. Stroke 36, 2410 (2005).CrossRef Palesch, Y.Y., Tilley, B.C., Sackett, D.L., Johnston, K.C., Woolson, R.: Applying a phase II futility study design to therapeutic stroke trials. Stroke 36, 2410 (2005).CrossRef
5.
Zurück zum Zitat Levin, B.: Selection and futility designs. In: Ravina, B., Cummings, J., McDermott, M., Poole, R.M. (eds.) Clinical Trials in Neurology: Design, Conduct, Analysis, pp. 78–90. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2012). Levin, B.: Selection and futility designs. In: Ravina, B., Cummings, J., McDermott, M., Poole, R.M. (eds.) Clinical Trials in Neurology: Design, Conduct, Analysis, pp. 78–90. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2012).
6.
Zurück zum Zitat Wellek, S.: Testing Statistical Hypotheses of Equivalence and Noninferiority, 2nd edn. Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca Raton. (2010).CrossRefMATH Wellek, S.: Testing Statistical Hypotheses of Equivalence and Noninferiority, 2nd edn. Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca Raton. (2010).CrossRefMATH
7.
Zurück zum Zitat Neyman, J.: On the problem of the most efficient tests of statistical hypotheses. Philos. Trans. Royal Soc. Lond. Ser. A Contain. Pap. Math. Phys. Charact. 231, 289–337 (1933).CrossRef Neyman, J.: On the problem of the most efficient tests of statistical hypotheses. Philos. Trans. Royal Soc. Lond. Ser. A Contain. Pap. Math. Phys. Charact. 231, 289–337 (1933).CrossRef
8.
Zurück zum Zitat Gehan, E.A.: Determination of number of patients required in a preliminary and a follow-up trial of a new chemotherapeutic agent. J. Chron. Dis. 13, 346 (1961).CrossRef Gehan, E.A.: Determination of number of patients required in a preliminary and a follow-up trial of a new chemotherapeutic agent. J. Chron. Dis. 13, 346 (1961).CrossRef
9.
Zurück zum Zitat Simon, R.: Optimal 2-stage designs for phase-II clinical-trials. Controll. Clin. Tr. 10, 1–10 (1989).CrossRef Simon, R.: Optimal 2-stage designs for phase-II clinical-trials. Controll. Clin. Tr. 10, 1–10 (1989).CrossRef
10.
Zurück zum Zitat Aberson, C.: Interpreting null results: improving presentation and conclusions with confidence intervals. J. Artic. Support Null Hypothesis 1, 36 (2002). Aberson, C.: Interpreting null results: improving presentation and conclusions with confidence intervals. J. Artic. Support Null Hypothesis 1, 36 (2002).
11.
Zurück zum Zitat Altman, D.G., Bland, J.M.: Statistics notes: absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. BMJ 311, 485 (1995).CrossRef Altman, D.G., Bland, J.M.: Statistics notes: absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. BMJ 311, 485 (1995).CrossRef
12.
Zurück zum Zitat Kieburtz, K., Tilley, B., Ravina, B., Galpern, W., Shannon, K., Tanner, C., et al.: A pilot clinical trial of creatine and minocycline in early Parkinson disease: 18-month results. Clin. Neuropharmacol. 31, 141 (2008). Kieburtz, K., Tilley, B., Ravina, B., Galpern, W., Shannon, K., Tanner, C., et al.: A pilot clinical trial of creatine and minocycline in early Parkinson disease: 18-month results. Clin. Neuropharmacol. 31, 141 (2008).
13.
Zurück zum Zitat Dunnett, C.W., Gent, M.: Significance testing to establish equivalence between treatments, with special reference to data in form of 2 x 2 tables. Biometrics 33, 593–602 (1977).CrossRef Dunnett, C.W., Gent, M.: Significance testing to establish equivalence between treatments, with special reference to data in form of 2 x 2 tables. Biometrics 33, 593–602 (1977).CrossRef
14.
Zurück zum Zitat Blackwelder, W.C.: Proving the null hypothesis in clinical-trials. Controll. Clin. Tr. 3, 345 (1982). Blackwelder, W.C.: Proving the null hypothesis in clinical-trials. Controll. Clin. Tr. 3, 345 (1982).
15.
Zurück zum Zitat Royall, R.M.: Statistical Evidence : A Likelihood Paradigm. Chapman & Hall, Boca Raton (1997).MATH Royall, R.M.: Statistical Evidence : A Likelihood Paradigm. Chapman & Hall, Boca Raton (1997).MATH
16.
Zurück zum Zitat Rogatko, A., Litwin, S.: Phase II studies: which is worse, false positive or false negative? J. Natl. Cancer Inst. 88, 461 (1996).CrossRef Rogatko, A., Litwin, S.: Phase II studies: which is worse, false positive or false negative? J. Natl. Cancer Inst. 88, 461 (1996).CrossRef
Metadaten
Titel
Problems with Constructing Tests to Accept the Null Hypothesis
verfasst von
André Rogatko
Steven Piantadosi
Copyright-Jahr
2015
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-12454-4_4