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The proceedings volume consists of academic papers on decision-making under uncertainty, smart decision, stochastic optimization, management simulation and its applications. It presents some compelling and valuable results on the cutting-edge modeling methods and the practical case studies in the operations management process for power, transportation, and logistics companies.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Summary of Research on PPP Model Smart City Construction Under the Big Data Background

With the joint development of city informatization and big data technology, PPT model smart city construction should make full use of big data and fully exert the value of big data for smart city construction. This paper firstly describes the situation of overseas PPP model smart city and enlightenment of PPP model for construction of China’s smart city; Generalizes and summarizes the current status of the development of China’s PPP model smart city; Specifically illustrates the construction and development of PPP model smart city under the big data background, researches the boosting function of big data for the construction of PPP model smart city, core technology realization during the development process of big data and PPP smart city integration and innovation and challenges and problems encountered during the construction of PPP model smart city in the era of big data, and raises constructive suggestions.
Jie Fu

Optimization of Multi-compartment Vehicle Routing Problem in Delivery Mode

With the rapid development of social life, the demand for refined oil is increasing rapidly. Therefore, the problem of vehicle routing problem is more and more concerned by domestic and foreign scholars. On the basis of the classical vehicle routing problem, the vehicle routing problem of multi tank is extended by combining the background of the finished product and the vehicle transportation. In this paper, the mathematical model of the distribution path of the multi tank truck is established firstly, the different oil is transported in the same position with the vehicle, the objective function is the lowest cost. Then, the hybrid algorithm of simulated annealing and tabu search is improved. The model and algorithm are applied to the actual delivery task of a company and compared with the actual business data. The cost of distribution is obviously reduced, and the improved hybrid algorithm can be effectively solved. It proved that the improved hybrid algorithm can effectively solve the problem of multi distribution storage tanker vehicles.
Xuefei Deng, Jing Liang, Lu Che, Lei Zhang, Rong Sun

Research on Option Pricing of Convertible Bonds

The world’s convertible bonds are mainly concentrated in the United States, Europe, Japan and other developed financial markets. Convertible bonds can effectively promote the prosperity of a region’s financial market and enhance the competitiveness of enterprises. However, at present, convertible bonds in China’s financial market are not mature yet, many investors lack the knowledge about convertible bonds pricing theory and risk scale. In order to explain the structure of convertible bonds more simply, this paper analysis dismantled convertible bonds through the change of parameters on the basis of Qiyuan Zhou’s paper.
Yi-rong Ying, Hao-yang Jia, Meng-meng Bai

A Trade Credit Contract for Two Capital-Constrained Retailers in Competitive Sales Market

We study trade credit contract for a capital-constrained supply chain with one manufacturer and two competing retailers who have capital constraints. We present the optimal operation decisions for retailer’s equilibrium ordering and manufacturer’s pricing. Based on Cournot game model that retailers follow, we examine a pareto zone of wholesale price in which manufacturer and retailers obtain their maximum payoffs under trade credit contract. Furthermore, we present some numerical experiments to show the impact of retailer’s competition intensity and initial fund on the pareto zone of wholesale price in trade credit contract. The findings reveal that manufacturer could make an effective trade credit contract through setting a reasonable wholesale price, and the trade credit contract become trivial with increasing the horizontal competition intensify and intrinsic fund of retailers.
Jizhou Zhan

Risk Tranfer Model of Dual Channel Supply Chain in Electronic Commerce Environment

To study the transfer of risk of dual channel supply chain in the electronic commerce environment, with the price of the risk transmission media, based on the cooperative game theory, The transmission of risk of supply chain in decentralized decision and centralized decision is analyzed in both supplier and retailer. The risk transmission mechanism of dual channel supply chain is researched in the emergence of sudden event, and the model of sudden risk transmission is established. Studies shows that the decision will affect the profit and the risk of the producer and seller, and the influence of producers and sellers is different; In general, the profit has a strong risk transfer to the market capacity and price sensitivity coefficient, has a fairly risky delivery to the consumer preference.
Jing Cao, Xin Zhang, Jiaguo Liu, Liangchen Xu

Customer Participation in the Internet of Things: A Bayesian Game Model

Customer participation in the Internet of things is the most important in the supply chain. Customers to participate n the Internet of things are the dynamic game of incomplete information. This paper integrate dimension of customers to participate in the Internet of things to build the balance of the types of participation by the Bayesian game. The conclusion shows that: separating equilibrium enterprise involved in the type of client signals to identify customers. Customer participation in the Internet of things can reach low degree of freedom, but eventually tend to high degree of freedom. Finally, this paper has proposed suggestions to participate in the Internet of things.
Xuxiang Zhang, Junhui He

An Evaluation Method for Traffic Data Quality Based on Markov Model

Using appropriate models to evaluate the data quality can immediately find abnormal equipments and reduce the cost of labor maintenance. So we can fix them instantly in order to avoid negative effects caused by abnormal data and maintain the function of the intelligent traffic system. In this paper, we introduce a evaluation method of traffic data based on markov model and validate it using the real traffic flow data of Fuzhou. The result of the experiment proves the validity of the method.
Zehai Liang, Dewang Chen

A Novel Regression Method for Hesitant Fuzzy Preference Relation Based on Additive Consistency

In this paper, we define the additive consistency of hesitant fuzzy preference relation (HFPR). The highest consistent FPR is obtained from a given HFPR using fuzzy linear programming method. More specifically, the proposed method is more simple and reasonable than previous method.
Yongming Song

Research on Supply Chain Risk Assessment Based on FMEA

In the information, under the background of globalization, great changes have taken place in the internal and external environment, in order to make the supply chain more lean, the enterprises in the pursuit of efficiency and reduce the cost at the same time, it also increased its supply chain vulnerability and risk, when any one of the links in the supply chain are uncertain the resulting problems are extremely easy to cause the collapse of supply chain operations or obstacles. In order to control and reduce the impact of supply chain uncertainties, reduce supply chain risk and loss caused by out of control, based on the risk assessment concepts and ideas as a guide, try to be a potential failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is introduced into the supply chain risk analysis, in order to evaluate the quality of the supply chain, reduce the supply of analysis method a quantitative risk brought by uncertainty.
Shi-Ming Liu, Hui-hong Chen

Study on the Influencing Factors of the Collaborative Development of the Coastal Countries in the Economic Corridor of Central Asia

Six economic corridors is the main skeleton of the Silk Road economic zone and Central Asia is the bridgehead of the China-Central Asia-West Asia economic corridor, collaborative development become the top priority in the Silk Road economic zone construction. However, due to the existence of differences in coastal countries, influenced by historical heritage, geographical and cultural factors, basic supporting factors, financial risk factors and industrial technological factors, it leads to the non-collaborative development, resulting in a lot of negative economic effects. Based on win-win cooperation core concept, studies suggest that should to achieve the collaborative development in economic corridor coastal countries, through the path such as play the role of think tanks and promote cultural identity; promote mechanism construction and create a collaborative environment; pay attention to the investment in infrastructure and reinforce connectivity; strengthen trade cooperation and eliminate investment barriers; form the project reserves and set up the pilot demonstration enterprises etc.
Wei Sun

An Optimal Allocation Scheme for City Fire Resources Based on Integer Programming

Optimization of allocation of fire safety resources when a fire breaks out in a city, to protect life and property and minimize the cost, has become an important issue. The problem of optimizing the allocation of resources in the event of a fire is solved by adoption of mathematical modeling integer programming methods. The mathematical model is then solved by LINGO software. In the next step, we perform a sensitivity analysis to validate the flexibility of the model structure. Finally, feasibility of the model is verified by further adding the budget constraints.
Rong Zheng

Risk Assessment of Government Purchased Pension Services Based on AHP-FCE

There exist many risks in government purchase pension services, the risk spread to three subjects involved in the government purchase pension services, government, social organizations and the public, including corruption risk, supply imbalance risk, regulatory failure, monopoly, morality, non equalization of service quality and risk reduction. In order to ensure the sustainable and stable development of the government’s purchase of pension services, it is necessary to evaluate the existing risks so as to prevent and avoid the risks effectively. This paper studies the AHP-FCE method based on the government purchase pension service risk, a risk index system, weights determined by expert scoring, fuzzy risk will involve uncertainty is quantified by the Shanghai municipal policy, the actual situation of case analysis, evaluation and risk, puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to effectively circumvent the government purchase pension services.
Yuya Liu, Hongyan Li

A Mean-Fuzzy Random VaR Portfolio Selection Model in Hybrid Uncertain Environment

This paper aims to study portfolio optimization in hybrid uncertain environment. Different from the existing researches, this paper first presents the definition of fuzzy random Value-at-risk to measure investment risk and uses the λ-average value of the expected value of the fuzzy random return rate of a portfolio to measure investment return. Then a new mean-fuzzy random VaR portfolio selection model in which return rates of securities are assumed to be fuzzy random variables is proposed. Random simulation technologies are combined together with fuzzy simulation technologies to calculate fuzzy random Value-at-Risk, and a hybrid particle swarm optimization-based hybrid intelligent algorithm is designed to solve the proposed model. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the application of this proposed model. The comparison results between HPSO-HIA and PSO-HIA show that the proposed algorithm- HPSO-HIA is effective for solving the proposed model.
Jun Li

The Improved Saving Algorithm of VSP with Hybrid Time Windows Constraints

Delivery is the link that is directly related to consumers in the logistics activity. The delivery cost accounts for a fairly high percentage among the various costs of logistics. Whether the vehicles’ routes are selected rationally or not takes great effect on the speed, cost and benefits in distribution, especially on the complicated distribution lines with multiple users. This paper proposes the improved saving algorithm of vehicle scheduling problem with hybrid time windows and designs the calculation process. The improved saving algorithm designed in this paper show great performance in terms of the solving effect especially for the VSP of small-scale, it has certain practical value.
Yang Liu

Countermeasures to Improve the Efficiency of University Administration

With the development of social economy, the deepening reform of higher education system, and university administration to adapt to economic and social development, solving various contradictions in the development of the school plays an important role. To improve administrative efficiency and ensure the college education comprehensive coordinated, sustainable development is of great significance. Firstly, to improve the administrative efficiency of the significance of University, analyzes the influence of means of university administrative efficiency concept, organization, management system, methods, main factors of five aspects of management personnel, on this basis, puts forward several points to improve the administrative efficiency of the specific measures.
Shanshan Yu

Determination of Knowledge Sharing Threshold Between Enterprises—Based on Game Theory

Knowledge sharing between enterprises can play a positive role in maximizing the value of knowledge, and can create a good development environment of enterprise, and the enterprise knowledge sharing threshold is the basis for sharing. By establishing the income matrix of knowledge sharing, the infinitely repeated game method is used to compare the optimal strategy choice of the enterprise in the trigger strategy and the tit-for-tat strategy. The minimum threshold of knowledge sharing is obtained. The results show that the knowledge sharing cost, the knowledge learning ability, the knowledge quantity and sharing intention all have the influence on knowledge sharing threshold.
Jin-Lou Zhao, Bo-Wen Lv

The Dynamic Relationship Analysis and Forecast of P2P Interest Rate—Based on Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model

Since 2007, China’s first P2P (Internet financial point-to-point lending platform) was established, the Internet loan model officially entered the public vision. P2P grows explosively in the next few years and has it’s own place in the lending market. It is notable that the development of P2P industry is still imperfect and the number of P2P problem platforms is increasing every year, we pay attention to P2P interest rate in order to promote the continuous development of P2P industry. Since P2P industry has a little data as a new industry, so the Bayesian vector autoregressive model (BVAR) based on independent Minnesota-Wishart conjugate prior has been chosen to overcome the over-parameterized problem and the low estimation accuracy problem under the small sample condition. We found that the P2P interest rate has the dynamic link with itself in the last term. At last, we predict the P2P interest rate by MCMC of Gibbs sampling.
Wenjun Lyu, Tiantong Lyu

Strategy of Optimizing Energy Consumption Structure Based on Energy Security

Energy is the basic material of human activities and economic development. With the further development of the world economy, the energy security problem will become more and more prominent. Energy security has become a major problem in the sustainable development of China’s social economy. Based on the analysis of energy safety indicators, this paper analyzes the impact of different energy consumption structure on energy security from the perspective of energy consumption structure, and then puts forward the optimization strategy of energy consumption structure to enhance energy security in China.
Jing Cao, Xinxin Ren

Vulnerability Analysis of Energy Supply in China

Over the past thirty years of reform and opening up, economic development is entering a new normal, the vulnerability of the energy supply system will also be highlighted, which seriously affect the sustainable development of the ecological and social economy. At present, China has promoted the structural reform of the supply side, it is a major adjustment from “demand management” to “supply management”. In this paper, we introduce the concept of vulnerability, on energy supply system vulnerability research background, purpose and meaning at the same time, the energy supply system vulnerability concept is defined, a vulnerability assessment model and by the dependence on foreign energy consumption elasticity index, energy reserves ratio, energy production elasticity index, such as per capita GDP constitutes the evaluation index system. The study on the assessment of feedback sensitivity damage level of the effect of different factors on the supply system and the corresponding system. Finally, based on the empirical analysis the sample data of 15 years in our country, from the government, enterprises, and individuals proposed China’s energy supply side perspective of the reform of the proposal.
Jing Cao, Shan Dong

A Study on Financing Efficiency Measurement of Information Technology Enterprises Listed in NEEQ Board Based on Three-Stage DEA Model and Malmquist Index

The panel data of 147 information technology enterprises were selected to measure the financing efficiency and the change of sample firms from 2013 to 2015. The results show that: most of the sample enterprises were at the scale increasing stage; enterprise scale and regional economic level expand input slack, while research and development expenses reduce input slack; the number of employees has a significant positive correlation with the employee compensation. This article suggests that: strengthen management level, promote the efficiency of employees, and pay more attention to their scientific researches and government subvention policies.
Jiawei Gui

Strategy for Income Distribution in Supermarket-Cooperative-Farmer Cooperative Game Under Uncertain Demand

Collaboration among supermarket, cooperative and farmer is a market choice in cooperative game where income distribution is a determinant in the decision of long term trilateral cooperation. The uncertain downstream demand impacts on both the total income of the supply chain and the profit each member can get. This paper describes the uncertain demand in fuzzy demand function, sensitivity of the demand amount and price to market in triangle fuzzy variable. It finds that when the three parties collaborate, the total income in the supply chain reaches maximum. Then, a sharply value approach is applied to distribute the total income to the three parties. Lastly, a case study is followed with a maximum total income and fair distribution for the three members. This research can be used to guide profit distribution of three-level supply chain in supermarket, cooperative distributor and farmer.
Chong-chong Qu, Ming-ke He, Jing Wang

Research on the Logistics Embeddedness in Rural Town E-commerce

This paper examines the tough issues surrounding rural e-commerce logistics to understand the situation of China’s rural logistics. Literature review and questionnaire with interview were conducted to propose a theory of Logistics Embeddedness in Rural Town E-commerce. Based on this theory we analysis the logistics embeddedness of rural aspects and companies, the result indicates that logistics embeddedness of rural region in middle China better than other. This research can provide an academic research framework to understand for the rural logistics and can make for decision-making reference with logistics service providers that want to seizing the rural e-commerce logistics market.
Chao Tu, Mingke He, Ye Ren, Yao Qin

Supplier Selection Evaluation of Shipbuilding Enterprises Based on Entropy Weight and Multi-attribute Decision Making

The healthy and stable development of the shipbuilding industry has played a significant role in promoting the national economy. China is now in a critical period of transition from a big shipbuilding industry into a powerful shipbuilding industry in which the competition in shipbuilding industry is becoming increasingly fierce. Ship enterprises should not rely solely on subjective factors to make decisions. And they should set up a perfect scientific evaluation system to conduct a comprehensive and specific evaluation of suppliers which is also the key to promote the development of ship supply chain management. In this paper, we take ship enterprise supplier selection evaluation as the research object, and propose an evaluation model based on entropy weight. Firstly, considering the external environment of an enterprise, we adopt the method of combining literature research and field investigation to establish the evaluation index system of supplier selection of shipbuilding enterprises. Then we use a comprehensive and synthetic evaluation method of improved AHP, the improved entropy weight coefficient method and the TOPSIS method to evaluate the weights of each evaluation index. So we conclude that supplier selection membership size relationship to determine which supply is the best supplier. Finally, we take a ship enterprise supplier selection evaluation as an analysis case, and conclude that S3 is the best supplier. The research shows that the evaluation method is scientific and easy to operate, and it has certain popularization and application value in solving the problem of supplier selection of ship enterprises.
Chang Liu

Does Exist the Efficient Return on the Investment on Sea Port? Empirical Study on China’s Sea Port Investment

Based on the panel data of 14 major ports in China from 2003 to 2014, this paper evaluates the investment efficiency of Chinese ports and its influencing factors. Considering that the ports’ input and output indicators are difficult to measure with a definite function, the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is applied to evaluate the investment efficiency of 14 major ports in China. Then the panel data model is applied to analyze the influencing factors of port investment efficiency. The study find that from 2003 to 2014 with the competition among ports, the investment efficiency of the ports in China is decreasing. Due to the different influence of each factor, the investment efficiency of the port is unbalanced in temporal and spatial distribution, there is large differences between regions. The main factors of ports investment efficiency is the level of economic development of the hinterland, but the emergence of a new mode of economic growth will lead to lowering investment efficiency of the port.
Jian Li, Bao Jiang

Information Risk Evaluation and Application: Based on the Set Pair Analysis

The control of the information risk is an important task in the business administration, the information risk seriously affect the efficiency of the supply chain. This paper puts forward a model based on set pair analysis about information risk evaluation, this model can not only divide the extent of the information risk, but describe the trend of the information risk. It has realized from two aspects of static and dynamic to describe information risk.
Hongyu Gao

New Energy Vehicles Sales Prediction Method and Empirical Research Under the Environment of Big Data

[Purpose/significance] The sales of new energy vehicles reflect the trend of public concern for environmental protection, with remarkable economic interpretation and environmental significance. [Method/process] By using AR (1) model to predict the sales of new energy vehicles, this paper introduces the internet search index to study the effect of search engine big data on the sales prediction of new energy vehicles. [Result/conclusion] The results show that: when we forecast the sales of new energy vehicles, the sales prediction results that consider the internet search index is better than that without considering the network search index; If we forecast the sales in a single search index, the Baidu index’s prediction result is better than 360 index’s; If we predict the sales in integrated search index, the prediction results when the proportion of the Baidu index and the 360 index is close to the proportion of their users are more accurate.
Shuang Zheng, Jin-hu Huang

Cost Sharing Contract Design in A Two-Stage Agri-Product Supply Chain Considering Quality Control Cost and External Failure Cost

This paper studies a two-stage agri-product supply chain with one farmer and one supermarket. The farmer decides on the quality control level of the production, and the supermarket determines the inspection degree when the agri-product is delivered from the farmer to the supermarket. Firstly, the supply chain in the centralized condition is considered and the optimal level of quality control and degree of inspection are identified. Secondly, chain profit in the decentralized condition is optimized and two kinds of cost sharing contract are developed in two cases. External failure cost is shared in the first case, while both quality control cost and external failure cost are shared in the second case. Finally, the threshold of the cost sharing proportion, quality control level and inspection degree are proposed in different cost sharing situations to coordinate the supply chain. Our key contribution is modeling cost sharing contract and analyzing its impact on agri-product supply chain. The purpose is to improve the quality of agri-products and promote the development of agri-product supply chain.
Li Cui, Tao Zhang
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