nach oben

Erschienen in:

2020 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

10. Productivity Under the New Normal: Latest Estimates and Interpretations of China’s Total Factor Productivity

verfasst von : Harry X. Wu

Erschienen in: China’s Economic New Normal

Verlag: Springer Singapore

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config

KI-gestützte Suche

Aus

Abstract

I shall begin this discussion on the productivity of the Chinese economy with what is called the “new normal.” Almost overnight, everyone is talking about the new normal, and some economists have even jokingly suggested that it be taken as an economics course in universities.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 102.000 Bücher
über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 67.000 Bücher
über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Vorheriges Kapitel Positive Changes in China’s Economic Structure

Nächstes Kapitel New Trends and Determinants of China’s Income Gap

On the motivations of local government officials for growth, see Li and Zhou 2005.

A negative externality is a production cost suffered by a third party, which can be an individual, the public, or even society as a whole (see Fig. 1).

Under this analytical framework of growth measurement, we are unable to further decompose efficiency and technical changes, and therefore our estimates of TFP changes are the net effect of efficiency and technical changes.

This classification is based on China National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) industrial classification. The two classifications are mutually convertible, but do not completely overlap with each other.

For a better understanding of the “cross-subsidization hypothesis,” I also estimated the unit labor cost (ULC) and the marginal product of capital (MPK) of Chinese industries and sectors under varying degrees of government intervention in my paper in Volume 69 of Comparative Studies, which focused on the total factor productivity of Chinese industry. Although the MPK estimation was largely based on hypotheses, it is still a useful reference.

Note that “gross output value” differs from “gross output” in that the former includes intermediate inputs, while the latter equals “value added.”

Many scholars have cast doubts on China’s economic statistics in their research literature, including myself (Maddison and Wu 2008). See Wu (2014b) for a summary of this issue. Nonetheless, the basic principle of the CIP Database is to accept the official output estimates, primarily because there is simply no substitute for them at the sector level.

Basically, the CIP Database was established in accordance with the principles of the KLEMS approach. KLEMS stands for K(C)apital, Labor, Energy, Materials, and Service, the basic factors and intermediate outputs and inputs in the production function for gross output (O’Mahony and Timmer 2009). For the CIP output statistics, including input-output tables, national accounting, and producers’ prices, please refer to Ito and Wu; for details of the establishment of the CIP employment and payoff matrices and the CIP labor hour estimates, please refer to Wu and Yue (2012; Wu, et al. 2015); for the establishment of the CIP capital stock and the CIP capital input estimates, please refer to Wu (2015).

It must be pointed out that our grouping utilizing the currently-available industry classification may not be very accurate. In some cases, it is very hard to define the nature of a sector, inevitably resulting in an obscure boundary between neighboring groups. For instance, both “wood and furniture” and “paper and printing” include “materials (pulp and board)” and “products and semi-products (furniture and paper products).”

Reference to a series of important literatures is omitted here. See the author’s paper in English (Wu 2014a) and the early works by Griliches (1960), Denison (1962), and Jorgenson and Griliches (1967).

See (Jorgenson 1990) for a summary of this method and a comparison with other methods.

For discussions on the demographic dividend and the Lewis turning point, see (Cai 2010).

Cai, F. (2010). Demographic transition, demographic Dividend, and Lewis turning point in China. China Economic Journal, 3(2), 107–119.CrossRef

Denison, E. F. (1962). The sources of economic growth in the United States and the alternative before US. New York: Committee on Economic Development.

Domar, E. D. (1961). On the measurement of technological change. The Economic Journal, 71(284), 709–729.CrossRef

Griliches, Z. (1960). Measuring inputs in agriculture: A critical survey. Journal of Farm Economics, 40(5), 1398–1427.

Huang, Y., & Tao, K. (2010). Factor market distortion and the current account surplus in China. Asian Economic Papers, 9(3), 1–36.CrossRef

Hulten, C. R. (1978). Growth accounting with intermediate inputs. Review of Economic Studies, 45(3), 511–518.CrossRef

Jorgenson, D. W. (1966). The embodiment hypothesis. Journal of Political Economy, 74(1), 1–17.CrossRef

Jorgenson, D. W. (1990). Productivity and economic growth. In E. R. Berndt & J. E. Triplett (Eds.), Fifty Years of Economic Measurement: The Jubilee of the Conference on Research in Income and Wealth (Vol. 54). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Jorgenson, D. W. (2001). Information technology and the US economy. American Economic Review, 91(1), 1–32.CrossRef

Jorgenson, D. W., & Griliches, Z. (1967). The explanation of productivity change. Review of Economic Studies, 34(3), 249–283.CrossRef

Jorgenson, D. W., Ho, M. S., & Stiroh, K. J. (2005). Information technology and the American growth resurgence. In Productivity (Vol. 3). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Li, H., & Zhou, L. (2005). Political turnover and economic performance: The incentive role of personnel control in China. Journal of Public Economics, 89(9–10), 1743–1762.CrossRef

Maddison, A., & Wu, H. X. (2008). Measuring China’s economic performance. World Economics, 9(2), 13–44.

Milana, C., & Wu, H. X. (2013). China’s Productivity performance in the government-engineered growth: A ‘true’ index number approach. Presented at the IARIW-UNSW Conference on Productivity: Measurement, Drivers, and Trends. Sydney, Australia, November 26–27.

O’Mahony, M., & Marcel, P. T. (2009). Output, input, and productivity measures at the industry level: The EU KLEMS database. The Economic Journal, 119(June), 374–403.CrossRef

Solow, R. M. (1957). Technical change and the aggregate production function. Review of Economics and Statistics, 39(3), 312–320.CrossRef

van Ark, B., O’Mahony, M., & Timmer, M. P. (2008). The productivity gap between Europe and the US: Trends and causes. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 22(1), 25–44.CrossRef

Wu, H. X. (2014a). On China’s strategic move for the new stage of development: A productivity perspective. Presented at the Third World KLEMS Conference. Tokyo, Japan, May 19–20.

Wu, H. X. (2014b). China’s Growth and Productivity Performance Debate Revisited: Accounting for China’s Sources of Growth in 1949–2012. In The Conference Board Economics Working Papers, EPWP1401.

Wu, H. X. (2015). Constructing China’s Net Capital Stock and Measuring Capital Service in China, 1980–2010. RIETI Discussion Papers, 15-E-006. (http://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/15010007.html).

Wu, H. X., & Yue, X. (2012). Accounting for Labor Input in Chinese Industry, 1949–2009. RIETI Discussion Papers, 12-E-065. (http://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/nts/12e065.html).

Wu, H. X., Yue, X., & Zhang, G. (2015). Constructing Annual Employment and Compensation Matrices and Measuring Labor Input in China. RIETI Discussion Papers, 15-E-005. (http://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/15010006.html).

Wu, J. L. (2008). The choice of China’s growth model. Shanghai: Shanghai Far East Publishers.

Titel: Productivity Under the New Normal: Latest Estimates and Interpretations of China’s Total Factor Productivity
verfasst von: Harry X. Wu
Verlag: Springer Singapore
Buch: China’s Economic New Normal
Print ISBN: 978-981-15-3226-9

Electronic ISBN: 978-981-15-3227-6

Copyright-Jahr: 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-3227-6_10