1 Introduction
2 Background and literature review
2.1 Crowdfunding models and platforms
2.2 Antecedents of funding success
2.3 Project description and persuasion theory
3 Methodology
3.1 Identifying exemplary antecedents of funding success
3.2 Predictive model and measures
Type | Source | Variable | Definition |
---|---|---|---|
Newly Identified Antecedents | Content of project description | length | The number of word contained in project description. |
readability | The ease of understanding of project description, measured by using readability index. | ||
tone | The ratio of positive and negative words in project description. | ||
Trustworthy cues (project owner traits) | pastExperience | The number of projects previously created and backed by the owner | |
pastExpertise | The rate of projects successfully funded. | ||
Previously Identified Antecedents | Control Variables | goal | Project goal, the amount owner seeks to raise using crowdfunding. |
duration | The number of days for which a project accepts funds. | ||
FBConnected | Whether the project owner has linked or created a Facebook page for the project. | ||
FBFriends | The number of Facebook friends a project owner has. | ||
numImages | The number of images embedded in the project page. | ||
numVideos | The number of videos embedded in the project page. | ||
rewards | The number of pledge levels | ||
year | The year a project launched ,not the year the project completed. | ||
category | The category of the projects. |
4 Empirical results
4.1 Data sample
Sample projects | |
---|---|
All projects scraped | 183648 |
Less live projects | 6559 |
Less canceled, purged and suspended projects | 15736 |
Less projects with goal less than 100 or above 1,000,000 | 2276 |
Less projects with invalid project description (missing, less than 50 words, etc.) | 7325 |
Total sample projects | 151752 |
Variables | Min | 1st Q | Median | Mean | 3rd Q | Max |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
length | 100 | 296 | 482 | 646.00 | 812 | 30280 |
readability | -19.68 | -14.69 | -12.92 | -13.08 | -11.33 | -5.10 |
tone | -0.22 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.48 |
pastExperience | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6.00 | 6 | 1267 |
pastExpertise | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 9.97 |
goal | 100 | 2000 | 5000 | 15126 | 12000 | 100000000 |
duration | 2 | 30 | 30 | 34.00 | 39 | 90 |
rewards | 1 | 6 | 9 | 9.00 | 12 | 250 |
FBFriends | 0 | 24 | 383 | 503.00 | 755 | 7797 |
hasImage | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
hasVideo | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
numImages | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4.67 | 6 | 248 |
numVideos | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.18 | 1 | 25 |
4.2 Descriptive results
4.2.1 Overall funding status by category
Category | Project | Success | Goal | Success rate | Funding ratio | Backers | Duration |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Art | 12,255 | 6130 | 9160 | 50 % | 0.84 | 45.82 | 33.10 |
Comics | 4274 | 2307 | 8466 | 54 % | 1.24 | 147.32 | 35.79 |
Crafts | 1873 | 633 | 5794 | 34 % | 0.96 | 33.85 | 30.93 |
Dance | 2064 | 1452 | 7302 | 70 % | 0.89 | 48.19 | 32.71 |
Design | 8500 | 3585 | 23,385 | 42 % | 1.76 | 280.39 | 34.21 |
Fashion | 6781 | 2135 | 11,986 | 31 % | 0.73 | 76.97 | 32.68 |
Film & video | 34,194 | 15,334 | 20,417 | 45 % | 0.62 | 71.28 | 35.77 |
Food | 7781 | 2832 | 19,493 | 36 % | 0.67 | 77.85 | 33.76 |
Games | 10,023 | 4235 | 27,520 | 42 % | 1.85 | 417.15 | 33.39 |
Journalism | 1101 | 395 | 11,833 | 36 % | 0.53 | 58.91 | 35.14 |
Music | 28,662 | 16,989 | 7289 | 59 % | 0.81 | 61.90 | 35.71 |
Photography | 4846 | 1767 | 8179 | 36 % | 0.59 | 46.55 | 34.72 |
Publishing | 17,117 | 5942 | 9037 | 35 % | 0.61 | 55.14 | 34.28 |
Technology | 6235 | 1997 | 39,073 | 32 % | 1.28 | 262.84 | 34.83 |
Theater | 6046 | 4051 | 9178 | 67 % | 0.85 | 53.19 | 33.83 |
Overall | 151752 | 69784 | 14,541 | 46 % | 0.95 | 115.82 | 34.06 |
Category | Length | Readability | Tone | Past experience | Past expertise |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Art | 551 | -13.53 | 8.41 | 6.08 | 0.19 |
Comics | 719 | -12.32 | 6.81 | 15.16 | 0.37 |
Crafts | 527 | -12.41 | 8.35 | 6.62 | 0.28 |
Dance | 500 | -14.94 | 10.68 | 5.44 | 0.18 |
Design | 844 | -12.67 | 7.33 | 9.68 | 0.34 |
Fashion | 595 | -12.53 | 8.20 | 5.23 | 0.25 |
Film & video | 637 | -13.43 | 5.89 | 5.52 | 0.10 |
Food | 651 | -13.03 | 8.44 | 5.47 | 0.09 |
Games | 1124 | -12.46 | 8.43 | 18.46 | 0.99 |
Journalism | 563 | -14.00 | 7.31 | 5.07 | 0.05 |
Music | 453 | -12.59 | 7.81 | 4.65 | 0.18 |
Photography | 533 | -13.81 | 7.13 | 5.41 | 0.09 |
Publishing | 679 | -12.96 | 7.01 | 6.47 | 0.11 |
Technology | 985 | -13.42 | 7.04 | 6.97 | 0.20 |
Theater | 503 | -14.22 | 6.68 | 4.81 | 0.14 |
Overall | 657.67 | -13.22 | 7.70 | 7.40 | 0.24 |
4.2.2 Overall funding status by year
Category | Project | Success | Goal | Success rate | Funding ratio | Backers | Duration |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2009 | 1145 | 551 | 5846 | 48 % | 0.70 | 36.55 | 58.66 |
2010 | 9314 | 4486 | 6857 | 48 % | 0.69 | 42.53 | 46.75 |
2011 | 22686 | 11607 | 9242 | 51 % | 0.84 | 59.49 | 40.19 |
2012 | 36485 | 17133 | 15,066 | 47 % | 0.86 | 112.89 | 33.41 |
2013 | 40975 | 19777 | 17,206 | 48 % | 1.02 | 145.51 | 32.02 |
2014 | 41147 | 16230 | 18,483 | 39 % | 0.85 | 111.40 | 31.85 |
Overall | 151752 | 69784 | 12,117 | 46 % | 0.82 | 84.73 | 40.48 |
Category | Lengh | Readability | Tone | Past Experience | Past Expertise |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2009 | 405 | -13.03 | 7.14 | 3.65 | 0.03 |
2010 | 399 | -13.19 | 6.69 | 4.37 | 0.04 |
2011 | 432 | -13.01 | 7.00 | 6.44 | 0.11 |
2012 | 593 | -12.90 | 7.38 | 6.62 | 0.14 |
2013 | 806 | -13.17 | 7.30 | 8.47 | 0.29 |
2014 | 718 | -13.18 | 7.60 | 8.15 | 0.32 |
Overall | 558.72 | -13.08 | 7.18 | 6.28 | 0.15 |
4.3 Impact of project descriptions on predicting funding success
4.3.1 Logistic regression results
Model A (Mainstream) | Model B (Proposed) | |
---|---|---|
Antecedents(IVs) | Coefficient (t-statistics) | Coefficient (t-statistics) |
Intercept | 2.75*** (32.51) | -0.27*** (−2.64) |
log(length) | 0.38*** (31.84) | |
readability | -0.05*** (−19.75) | |
tone | 2.72*** (8.99) | |
tone2
| -17.85*** (−9.93) | |
log(pastExperience) | 0.68*** (74.3) | |
log(pastExpertise) | 0.58*** (20.75) | |
log(goal) | -0.6*** (−113.18) | -0.64*** (−110.02) |
duration | -0.01*** (−30.69) | -0.01*** (−26.25) |
log(rewards) | 1.24*** (83.12) | 0.97*** (61.64) |
log(FBFriends) | 0.04*** (21.79) | 0.01*** (5.85) |
log(numImages) | 0.28*** (41.18) | 0.11*** (14.21) |
log(numVideos) | 0.83*** (42.18) | 0.7*** (34.23) |
year | controlled | controlled |
category | controlled | controlled |
Pseudo R-square (%) | 17.16 | 22.98 |
4.3.2 Evaluation of predicting performance
Panel A | Model A (Mainstream Model) | |||
Accuracy: | 69.34 % | F-Measure: | 66.20 % | |
Predicted | ||||
Failed | Success | Total | ||
Actual | Failed | TN = 59666 (72.79 %) | FP = 22302 (27.21 %) | 81968 |
Success | FN = 24226 (34.72 %) | TP = 45558 (65.28 %) | 69784 | |
Total | 83892 | 67860 | 151752 | |
Panel B | Model B (Proposed Model) | |||
Accuracy: | 73.09 % | F-Measure: | 70.31 % | |
Predicted | ||||
Failed | Success | Total | ||
Actual | Failed | TN = 62,556 (76.32 %) | FP = 19412 (23.68 %) | 81968 |
Success | FN = 21426 (30.7 %) | TP = 48358 (69.3 %) | 69784 | |
Total | 83982 | 67770 | 151752 |
N | Baseline (%) | Mainstream (%) | Proposed (%) |
---|---|---|---|
3 | 59.34 (57.26) | 69.21 (66.58) | 73.36 (70.59) |
5 | 59.67 (57.19) | 69.36 (66.15) | 73.28 (71.32) |
10 | 59.83 (57.68) | 69.67 (66.49) | 73.19 (70.43) |