Skip to main content
main-content

Tipp

Weitere Kapitel dieses Buchs durch Wischen aufrufen

2021 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Projections of Electricity Demand in European Cities Using Downscaled Population Scenarios

verfasst von: Gianni Guastella, Enrico Lippo, Stefano Pareglio, Massimiliano Carlo Pietro Rizzati

Erschienen in: Smart and Sustainable Planning for Cities and Regions

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

share
TEILEN

Abstract

This work projects future residential electricity demand derived from cities and municipalities’ population and residential land-use projections. Starting from national-level energy intensity data, we derived statistically downscaled residential electricity consumption with the aim to disaggregate residential electricity at the local administrative unit level for all EU member states in the year 2050. The intensity in 2050 is obtained from population density that, in turn, depends on the evolution of population and residential land-use. Residential land-use is projected to 2050 according to a model linked to population trajectories at the LAU level via the share-of-growth method. Finally, country-level intensity multiplied by the projected value of LAU residential area returns the electricity demand for every LAU. The results suggest that the amount of electricity required by cities depends on their land-use patterns, but with an evident between-and-within-country heterogeneity. The national average temperature does not provide significant effects over the evolution of electricity demand, highlighting the need for more detailed climate-related variables. This evidence poses significant challenges for the planning of future cities because it points out how the current patterns of land-use will need to be properly categorized with respect to the development of future electricity requirements.

Sie möchten Zugang zu diesem Inhalt erhalten? Dann informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 69.000 Bücher
  • über 500 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Testen Sie jetzt 15 Tage kostenlos.

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 50.000 Bücher
  • über 380 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




Testen Sie jetzt 15 Tage kostenlos.

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 58.000 Bücher
  • über 300 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Testen Sie jetzt 15 Tage kostenlos.

Fußnoten
1
2050 is the target year of the European Union objective for reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, as set also in the Paris Agreements.
 
Literatur
Zurück zum Zitat Aydin NY, Kentel E, Duzgun S (2010) GIS-based environmental assessment of wind energy systems for spatial planning: A case study from western turkey. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 14(1):364–373 CrossRef Aydin NY, Kentel E, Duzgun S (2010) GIS-based environmental assessment of wind energy systems for spatial planning: A case study from western turkey. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 14(1):364–373 CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Barrington-Leigh C, Ouliaris M (2017) The renewable energy landscape in Canada: a spatial analysis. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 75:809–819 CrossRef Barrington-Leigh C, Ouliaris M (2017) The renewable energy landscape in Canada: a spatial analysis. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 75:809–819 CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Damm A, Köberl J, Prettenthaler F, Rogler N, Töglhofer C (2017) Impacts of +2 °C global warming on electricity demand in Europe. Climate Services 7:12–30 CrossRef Damm A, Köberl J, Prettenthaler F, Rogler N, Töglhofer C (2017) Impacts of +2 °C global warming on electricity demand in Europe. Climate Services 7:12–30 CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat De Cian E, Wing IS (2017) Global energy consumption in a warming climate. Environ Resource Econ, pp 1–46 De Cian E, Wing IS (2017) Global energy consumption in a warming climate. Environ Resource Econ, pp 1–46
Zurück zum Zitat De Felice M, Kavvadias K (2019) ERA-NUTS: time-series based on C3S ERA5 for European regions (Version 1980–2018). Zenodo De Felice M, Kavvadias K (2019) ERA-NUTS: time-series based on C3S ERA5 for European regions (Version 1980–2018). Zenodo
Zurück zum Zitat Dilaver Z, Hunt LC (2011) Modelling and forecasting Turkish residential electricity demand. Energy Policy 39(6):3117–3127 CrossRef Dilaver Z, Hunt LC (2011) Modelling and forecasting Turkish residential electricity demand. Energy Policy 39(6):3117–3127 CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Gao J (2017) Downscaling global spatial population projections from 1/8-degree to 1-km grid cells. Technical Notes NCAR, National Center for Atmospheric Researcher, Boulder, CO., USA Gao J (2017) Downscaling global spatial population projections from 1/8-degree to 1-km grid cells. Technical Notes NCAR, National Center for Atmospheric Researcher, Boulder, CO., USA
Zurück zum Zitat Guastella G, Oueslati W, Pareglio S (2019) Patterns of urban spatial expansion in European cities. Sustainability 11(8):2247 CrossRef Guastella G, Oueslati W, Pareglio S (2019) Patterns of urban spatial expansion in European cities. Sustainability 11(8):2247 CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Murakami D, Yamagata Y, Seya H (2015) Estimation of spatially detailed electricity demands using spatial statistical downscaling techniques. Energy Procedia 75:2751–2756 CrossRef Murakami D, Yamagata Y, Seya H (2015) Estimation of spatially detailed electricity demands using spatial statistical downscaling techniques. Energy Procedia 75:2751–2756 CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Pesaresi M, Florczyk A, Schiavina M, Melchiorri M, Maffenini L (2019) GHS-SMOD R2019A - GHS settlement layers, updated and refined REGIO model 2014 in application to GHS-BUILT R2018A and GHS-POP R2019A, multitemporal (1975-1990-2000-2015). European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) [Dataset] Pesaresi M, Florczyk A, Schiavina M, Melchiorri M, Maffenini L (2019) GHS-SMOD R2019A - GHS settlement layers, updated and refined REGIO model 2014 in application to GHS-BUILT R2018A and GHS-POP R2019A, multitemporal (1975-1990-2000-2015). European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) [Dataset]
Zurück zum Zitat Poggio L, Gimona A (2015) Downscaling and correction of regional climate models outputs with a hybrid geostatistical approach. Spatial Stat 14:4–21 CrossRef Poggio L, Gimona A (2015) Downscaling and correction of regional climate models outputs with a hybrid geostatistical approach. Spatial Stat 14:4–21 CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Ramachandra T, Shruthi B (2007) Spatial mapping of renewable energy potential. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 11(7):1460–1480 CrossRef Ramachandra T, Shruthi B (2007) Spatial mapping of renewable energy potential. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 11(7):1460–1480 CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Seya H, Yamagata Y, Nakamichi K (2016) Creation of municipality level intensity data of electricity in japan. Appl Energy 162:1336–1344 CrossRef Seya H, Yamagata Y, Nakamichi K (2016) Creation of municipality level intensity data of electricity in japan. Appl Energy 162:1336–1344 CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Swan LG, Ugursal VI (2009) Modeling of end-use energy consumption in the residential sector: a review of modeling techniques. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 13(8):1819–1835 CrossRef Swan LG, Ugursal VI (2009) Modeling of end-use energy consumption in the residential sector: a review of modeling techniques. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 13(8):1819–1835 CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Van Ruijven BJ, De Cian E, Wing IS (2019) Amplification of future energy demand growth due to climate change. Nature Commun 10(1):2762 CrossRef Van Ruijven BJ, De Cian E, Wing IS (2019) Amplification of future energy demand growth due to climate change. Nature Commun 10(1):2762 CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Yamagata Y, Murakami D, Seya H (2015) A comparison of grid-level residential electricity demand scenarios in japan for 2050. Appl Energy 158:255–262 CrossRef Yamagata Y, Murakami D, Seya H (2015) A comparison of grid-level residential electricity demand scenarios in japan for 2050. Appl Energy 158:255–262 CrossRef
Metadaten
Titel
Projections of Electricity Demand in European Cities Using Downscaled Population Scenarios
verfasst von
Gianni Guastella
Enrico Lippo
Stefano Pareglio
Massimiliano Carlo Pietro Rizzati
Copyright-Jahr
2021
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-57332-4_6