4.1 Variability and uncertainty
An understanding of variability and uncertainty is critical for decision-making but often poorly addressed in many LCA studies which tend to be deterministic (Ascough et al.
2008; Polizzi di Sorrentino et al.
2016). In this study, we simulated the variability in the GHG footprint of a typical household activity (i.e. laundry washing) by integrating consumer habits and survey data, using the Monte Carlo method. Various approaches and statistical treatments have been applied to estimate variability and uncertainty in LCA, such as the use of regression models in assessing life cycle inventories (Steinmann et al.
2014a) and the application of Monte Carlo methods (Steinmann et al.
2014b). Empirical studies of variability and probabilistic approaches are more commonly applied in related areas such as human and environmental risk assessment (Huizer et al.
2012). Taking consumer behaviour into account is challenging as its characterisation and measurement on significant samples of the population is complex and costly. In this study, we benefited from having access to large datasets collected by the detergent industry.
Different data collection methods such as using questionnaires, interviews, diaries, cameras and data loggers exist and each method has its own pros and cons. With regard to the choice of detergent format and temperature, we based our analysis on relatively large samples collected with questionnaires. However, behavioural data based on self-report has some limitations. Consumers often do not have sufficient insight into the drivers of habitual behaviours and will struggle to precisely remember and report on their habits (Verplanken et al.
2005). Also, social desirability may influence reporting as socially desirable behaviours tend to be over-reported in self-reports (e.g. Chung and Leung
2007). For the energy consumption, we used sensor-based data loggers that measure the actual behaviour. Such studies are more costly to implement than questionnaires and diaries but provide more reliable behavioural data. This is the reason why we were only able to include information on energy use per temperature setting for a relatively small group of 100 households in the UK only. This may limit representativeness for countries that have significantly different washing behaviours and energy consumptions beyond differences in machine temperature settings, i.e. in wash duration, load size and machine efficiency. The data also does not cover the variance in the ambient water temperature in the different countries and at different times in the year. This may lead to underestimation of variability of the GHG footprint per wash cycle within the temperature categories. Having said that, to the best of our knowledge, it is the only available measured data on consumers’ real laundry washing behaviour. We compared the reported average energy consumption per temperature setting in our study with the average energy consumption in washing machines used in European countries reported by Stamminger and Schmitz (
2016). In their study, the energy consumption of 50 specific models of washing machines bought from the European market between the years 2012 and 2014 was measured at 40 and 60 °C. The average consumption reported in that study is consistent with the average of the figures reported in Unilever’s dataset for the same programmes (both equal to 0.78 kWh per wash cycle).
Another uncertainty is the fact that the data we used for the GHG emissions per unit of detergent was representative of the Unilever product portfolio only. However, we compared the average used in this study with the one reported by Lasic et al. (
2015) and found them consistent (both 1.7 g CO
2−eq/g detergent). Other sources of uncertainty and variability related to the detergent dataset were not considered in this study, such as the manufacturing processes, sourcing of raw materials, and sources of energy used for manufacturing.
With regard to the dosing behaviour, we assumed consumers use only one capsule per wash and we used the capsule mass data as provided by Unilever. If more than one capsule were used, the associated GHG emissions from capsule detergents would increase accordingly. For detergent formats other than capsules, distributions of dosing amounts per wash cycle and per detergent format were available from a large consumer study in Germany. It is unknown whether this data is representative for the rest of Europe. We also did not differentiate between the use of concentrated and regular forms of liquid detergents. Based on the recommended dosages for these formats one could argue that liquid detergents should be split into different use categories. Chapotot et al. (
2011) found, however, that there is no statistically significant difference between the real dosage of concentrated and regular liquid detergents. Furthermore, AISE (
2014) reported that up to 40% of the consumers do not adjust their dosage behaviour according to the form of liquid detergent. Therefore, modelling the liquid detergents as one group, with a range of impacts (in g CO
2−eq/g detergent) that covers both non-concentrated as well as concentrated forms of liquid detergents is considered justified. We did not include the possible impacts of additional products such as bleaches, fabric softeners and water softeners in this study.
We did not consider possible correlations between the input variables. According to the ‘Sinner Circle’ (Sinner
1960; Stamminger
2010), laundering performance is the result of chemistry, temperature, mechanical action from the washing machine, time and water. This means that in theory, higher average wash temperatures may have lower the dosage to reach the same performance.
Finally, to obtain the GHG emission factor of the electricity consumed in different countries (EF
c)
, we considered electricity on the low voltage level of the different markets. However, different approaches of GHG calculation for electricity mixes will lead to different GHG emission factors. As an example, correcting the Norwegian electricity consumption for the European trade of guarantees of origin will results in a GHG emission factor of 500 g CO
2−eq per kWh for Norway (RE-DISS
2015).
Using the estimation of 34.3 billion wash loads per year in Europe by AISE (
2014), we estimated a potential GHG saving of 5.9 million tonnes CO
2−eq per year from switching all washes to 30 °C or lower. Considering 6.7 t of CO
2 emissions per capita in Europe (World Bank
2013), the saving potential equates to the total GHG emissions produced by more than 880,000 European inhabitants.
The results of the PV scenario analysis suggest that consumers can largely influence the life cycle GHG emissions of laundry detergents not only by lowering the temperature settings of the washing machine, but also by using low-carbon technologies for electricity production. Considering the number of annual wash loads in Europe, the corresponding GHG saving potential of switching to low-carbon intensive resources (in this study, we only considered PV panels) is 11.8 million tonnes CO2−eq per year. This equals to the total GHG emissions produced by 1,760,000 European inhabitants.