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Über dieses Buch

Foresight is an area within Futures Studies that focuses on critical thinking concerning long term developments, whether within the public sector or in industry and management, and is something of a sub-section of complexity and network science. This book examines developments in foresight methodologies and relates in its greater part to the work done in the context of the COSTA22 network of the EU on Foresight Methodologies. Foresight is a professional practice that supports significant decisions, and as such it needs to be more assured of its claims to knowledge (methodology). Foresight is practiced across many domains and is not the preserve of specialized ‘futurists’, or indeed of foresight specialists. However, the disciplines of foresight are not well articulated or disseminated across domains, leading to re-inventions and practice that does not make best use of experience in other domains.

The methodological development of foresight is an important task that aims at strengthening the pool of the tools available for application, thereby empowering the actors involved in foresight practice. Elaborating further on methodological issues, such as those presented in the present book, enables the actors involved in foresight to begin to critique current practice from this perspective and, thirdly, to begin to design foresight practice. The present trends towards methodological concerns indicates a move from ‘given’ expert-predicted futures to one in which futures are nurtured through a dialogue among “stakeholders.” The book has four parts, each elaborating on a set of aspects of foresight methodologies. After an introductory section, Part II considers theorizing about foresight methodologies. Part III covers system content issues, and Part IV presents foresight tools and approaches.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

INTRODUCTION

2013 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Chapter 1. In Search of Foresight Methodologies: Riddle or Necessity

Maria Giaoutzi, Bartolomeo Sapio

THEORIZING ABOUT FORESIGHT METHODOLOGIES

2013 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Chapter 2. Defining the Future: Concepts and Definitions as Linguistic Fundamentals of Foresight

Ruud van der Helm

2013 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Chapter 3. Classification of Tools and Approaches Applicable in Foresight Studies

Jan Erik Karlsen, Hanne Karlsen

2013 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Chapter 4. Bridging Qualitative and Quantitative Methods in Foresight

Matthias K. B. Lüdeke

2013 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Chapter 5. New Emerging Issues and Wild Cards as Future Shakers and Shapers

Victor van Rij

SYSTEM CONTENT ISSUES

2013 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Chapter 6. Forms of Reasoning in Pattern Management and in Strategic Intelligence

Tuomo Kuosa

2013 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Chapter 7. Micro-Meso-Macro: From the Heritage of the Oracle to Foresight

Péter Alács

2013 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Chapter 8. Going from Narrative to Number: Indicator-Driven Scenario Quantification

Eric Kemp-Benedict

2013 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Chapter 9. On Foresight Design and Management: A Classification Framework for Foresight Exercises

Totti Könnölä, Toni Ahlqvist, Annele Eerola, Sirkku Kivisaari, Raija Koivisto

2013 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Chapter 10. Will Entrepreneurship, Knowledge Management and Foresight Emerge in a System?

Arturs Puga

2013 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Chapter 11. Scenario Transfer Methodology and Technology

Bartolomeo Sapio, Enrico Nicolò

FORESIGHT TOOLS AND APPROACHES

2013 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Chapter 12. Willingness of Stakeholders to Use Models for Climate Policy: The Delft Process

Serge Stalpers, Carolien Kroeze

2013 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Chapter 13. Linking Narrative Storylines and Quantitative Models to Combat Desertification in the Guadalentín Watershed (Spain)

Kasper Kok, Hedwig van Delden

2013 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Chapter 14. Scenario Planning as a Tool in Foresight Exercises: The LIPSOR Approach

Anastasia Stratigea, Maria Giaoutzi

2013 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Chapter 15. Foresights, Scenarios, and Sustainable Development: A Pluriformity Perspective

Eveline van Leeuwen, Peter Nijkamp, Aliye Ahu Akgün, Masood Gheasi

2013 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Chapter 16. Methodological Challenges in Combining Quantitative and Qualitative Foresight Methods for Sustainable Energy Futures: The SEPIA Project

Erik Laes, Da Ruan, Fre Maes, Aviel Verbruggen

2013 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Chapter 17. Building Strategic Policy Scenarios for EU Agriculture: AG2020

Maria Giaoutzi, Anastasia Stratigea

2013 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Chapter 18. Opportunities for Combining Quantitative and Qualitative Approaches in Scenario Building: The Experience of the ‘Estonia 2010’ Project

Erik Terk
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