Erschienen in:

10.10.2024 | Original Paper

Reexamining a classical question: Does development push migration?

verfasst von: Karina Acosta, Hengyu Gu

Erschienen in: The Annals of Regional Science | Ausgabe 4/2024

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Abstract

Der Artikel geht der klassischen Frage nach, ob Entwicklung Migration antreibt, und konzentriert sich dabei auf Kolumbien als Fallstudie. Sie stellt traditionelle Migrationstheorien in Frage, wie etwa die Mobilitätsübergangshypothese, und verwendet fortschrittliche Schwerkraftmodelle, um interne Migrationsmuster zu analysieren. Die Studie stellt im Gegensatz zu internationalen Belegen eine U-förmige Beziehung zwischen Entwicklung und Migration fest und unterstreicht die Bedeutung der Berücksichtigung räumlicher und nichträumlicher Endogenität in der Migrationsforschung. Die Ergebnisse haben erhebliche Auswirkungen auf die öffentliche Ordnung und die Entwicklungsstrategien in Kolumbien und anderen ähnlichen Kontexten.

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Vorheriger Artikel Political trust and economic development in European regions

Nächster Artikel Kin networks and quality of government: a regional analysis

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Although Colombia exhibits comparatively high levels of forced displacement, data from the 2005 Census—which includes a question on the reasons for migration—indicates that merely 4.19% of migrants attribute their relocation to “threats to their lives.”

We also test the cross-sectional model proposed by LeSage and Pace (2008); the results lead to the same conclusion. The results are available upon request.

Estimates derived from small area estimation techniques, utilizing both IHS and census data.

The departments excluded from the survey collection are those belonging to the Amazon-Orinoquía region (created under the constitution of 1991) and San Andrés: Guainía, Guaviare, Vaupés, Amazonas, Putumayo, Caquetá, Arauca, Casanare and San Andrés y Providencia. According to the population information of Colombia, these departments accounted for approximately 2.9% of the total population throughout the period of analysis. Therefore, we are confident about the representativeness of the results for Colombia.

More information about the details of the information collection can be found in DANE (2009).

Analogous to the income-based Gini coefficient, the Gini land coefficient is calculated by examining the distribution of registered rural land by considering land area and the number of landowners. A value approaching 1 indicates a higher concentration of land ownership among a limited number of individuals (IGAC, 2012).

This sample’s yearly/monthly distribution is roughly stable. The sample size by year is 2012: 684,064, 2013: 587,792, 2014: 788,101, 2015: 787,044, 2016: 778,238, 2017: 7678,67, 2018: 762,753, 2019: 756,063.

More details about its estimation can be found in DANE (2009).

This HIS survey is not representative of the rural state level. Thus, these estimations are considered only for exploratory analysis and are not part of our models.

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Titel: Reexamining a classical question: Does development push migration?
verfasst von: Karina Acosta
Hengyu Gu
Publikationsdatum: 10.10.2024
Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Erschienen in: The Annals of Regional Science / Ausgabe 4/2024
Print ISSN: 0570-1864
Elektronische ISSN: 1432-0592
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-024-01320-y

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