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Über dieses Buch

This book presents a multiregional input-output model for the metropolitan area of Southern California, which helps to estimate the economic impact of simulated terrorist attacks on seaports, malls etc. as well as of natural disasters such as earthquakes and tsunamis. The authors also analyze the economic and social effects of metropolitan policies such as growth controls, neighborhood gentrification or road-congestion charges. The model presented in the book has evolved over a period of 25 years and requires a very substantial computer capacity.





Chapter 1. Introduction

This book deals with perhaps the most long-established regional science model, the multiregional input-output model (MRIO), and applies to several public policy issues in a metropolitan context. The version of the model eventually developed is one of the most spatially disaggregated ever. We do not explore the full range of regional science models, but we do compare input-output with its most competitive rival, the computable general (CGE) model (especially in Chap. 2). MRIO focuses on geographical disaggregation, while CGE is stronger on intersectoral differences. There has been some progress in blending the models, for example relaxing the strict assumption of fixed production coefficients and introducing supply side approaches and both factor and price substitution in input-output analysis and expanding the number of spatial units in CGE, but there is still much progress to be made. The best guess is that each of the models will continue the trend of leaning towards the other, and it is even possible that eventually both approaches will be fully integrated.
Harry W. Richardson, Qisheng Pan



Chapter 2. Theory and Methodologies: Input–Output, SCPM and CGE

Input–output modeling of inter-industry analysis was introduced in English in the original work of Leontief (1928); it was first developed by Bogdanov in Russian in 1921. Leontief illustrated the circular flow of goods in an economy by examining the production, distribution and consumption of two sectors of commodities, e.g., consumption goods and production goods in an input–output system. This two-sector system was extended to incorporate multiple sectors in a real-world economic system (Leontief 1936, 1941, 1951) when he released a series of input–output tables of the American economy based on national accounting data. These models were elaborated in the standard Leontief input-out model. An economic system consists of a number of industries that are classified as industrial sectors. Each sector uses inputs from itself and from other industrial sectors. Distinguished from other interindusty models, the Leontief input–output model assumes that a given product is only served by one sector, no joint products are allowed, and the quantity of each input served in production by any industrial sector depends on the level of output of that sector only (Clark 1959, Chap. 2).
Qisheng Pan, Harry W. Richardson

Terrorist Attacks


Chapter 3. Alternative Terrorist Attacks on the Twin Ports of Los Angeles-Long Beach

This chapter sums up some of the recent research on the potential economic impacts of terrorist attacks on the twin ports of Los Angeles-Long Beach. The research considers two types of attack—radiological bombs in the ports and conventional bombs to blow up access bridges, either together or in isolation. The analysis uses the Southern California Planning Model (SCPM), a 3,226 zone input–output model of the five-county Southern Californian region with an endogenous transportation network (this is the SCPM2 model). The research measures the business interruption losses associated with alternative scenarios that vary with port closure periods, bridge reconstruction and the duration of radiation plume evacuations. These losses could range up to $35 billion, approximately two-thirds of which are interregional.
Harry W. Richardson, Qisheng Pan, Peter Gordon, James E. Moore, JiYoung Park

Chapter 4. A Radiological Bomb Attack on the Downtown Los Angeles Financial District

This chapter summarizes a study on the economic impacts of a radiological bomb attack on a major office building in Downtown Los Angeles financial district. A radiological bomb will generate effects within an extensive radiation plume that is divided into two zones with varying evacuation times, an inner zone with 1 year evacuation and an outer zone with only 1 month evacuation time. The SCPM (Southern California Planning Model) is employed to simulate household and firm relocation in three scenarios: (1) an exit scenario where households and firms in both the inner and the outer zones disappear, (2) a relocation scenario where households and firms in the inner and the outer zones relocate to somewhere else within the five-county metropolitan region, and (3) a hybrid scenario where the households and firms in the inner zone disappear while those in the outer zone relocate. The impact analysis focuses on business interruption effects only. It finds that the effects on the inner zone play a dominant role because of its long evacuation period. The exit scenario has an aggregate impact of $5.9 billion of output losses and 40,391 job losses. The relocation scenario has neutral effects from a regional perspective but direct losses in the impacted zones are 7,257 jobs and $2.617 billion of output. The hybrid scenario may be the most realistic one but its impacts are only marginally lower than the exit scenario because of the dominance of the inner zone impact.
Harry W. Richardson, Qisheng Pan, Peter Gordon, JiYoung Park, James E. Moore

Chapter 5. A Bomb Attack on a Shopping Mall

Many of the international mall attacks occurred on the peripheries of the malls/shopping centers rather than deeply inside. This suggests that preventive measures, no matter how expensive and/or thorough, can never be foolproof (Rand 2006; Button 2008, among others, have reinforced this argument).
Harry W. Richardson, Qisheng Pan, Peter Gordon, James E. Moore, JiYoung Park, Christine Ngyuen

Natural Disasters


Chapter 6. Protection of the Los Angeles Floodplain

This chapter examines the local and regional economic impacts of the imposition of FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) new construction regulations and flood insurance requirements proposed in 1990 on ten cities in the Los Angeles County floodplain (Bellflower, Bell Gardens, Carson, Compton, Downey, Lakewood, Long Beach, Paramount, Pico Rivera and South Gate). The goal of FEMA requirements was to protect against the effects of a “100 year flood”, i.e. a catastrophic flood that has a 1 % probability of occurring in any year.
Harry W. Richardson, Peter Gordon, Myung-Jin Jun, James E. Moore

Chapter 7. Estimating the Costs of a Large Urban Earthquake

Some of the most dramatic changes in regional economic and infrastructure capacity follow from natural disasters. These events imply substantial economic losses associated with the disruption of the urban economy. Despite this, the existing literature on the cost of earthquakes is largely restricted to the measurement of structure and contents losses.
Stephanie Chang, Sungbin Cho, Peter Gordon, James E. Moore, Harry W. Richardson, Masanobu Shinozuka

Chapter 8. The Regional Economic Impacts of a Tsunami Wave

The hazard to metropolitan Southern California posed by locally generated tsunamis has received considerably less study than the hazards posed by onshore earthquakes. This is likely to change. The mechanisms that generate tsunamis have received considerable study as have major tsunamis in the past two decades such as in Papua New Guinea in July 1998, the Indian Ocean in December 2004 (with about 250,000 deaths in 14 countries), and Tohoku, Japan, in May 2011 (followed by the Fukushima nuclear disaster). As a result of this increasing scientific scrutiny, Southern California’s susceptibility to tsunami damage has only recently become understood.
Jose Borrero, Sunbin Cho, James E. Moore, Costas Synoloakis, Harry W. Richardson

Metropolitan Policies


Chapter 9. The Costs of Stormwater Protection

This study is the most comprehensive analysis to date of the potential costs required to meet new and emerging stormwater regulations in the Los Angeles area. It confirms that advanced treatment of storm flows will likely be required to meet current and anticipated federal and state water quality standards. Such treatment will be extremely costly and will generate significantly negative economic consequences for our region. The principal case study, which contemplates 65 treatment plants to accommodate regional stormwater requirements, shows that:
Peter Gordon, John Kuprenas, J.-J. Lee, James E. Moore, Harry W. Richardson, Christopher Williamson

Chapter 10. PRIDE and Prejudice: The Economic Impacts of Growth Controls in Pasadena

In recent decades there has been a major revival, especially in the United States and Canada, in the adoption by municipalities of growth management controls and development ordinances, particularly in California (Glickfield and Levine 1991) and other fast-growing states with state growth management mandates (e.g. Oregon, Washington, Florida). Typically, these controls are justified as bringing a variety of community benefits such as reduced traffic congestion, lower taxes for infrastructure expenses, improved environmental quality, and preservation of traditional community atmosphere and spirit (Pincetl 1990). On the other hand, as Alonso (1973) argued, the hidden goal was often not to avoid the negative impacts of growth but to discriminate against newcomers, particularly poorer and/or minority newcomers. Another rationale for growth controls is based on the view that the cost of municipal services can rise very rapidly as populations grow larger and become more heterogeneous, and that this situation was made worse by the retrenchment in the 1980s of federal assistance for local infrastructure investments (Schneider 1990).
Harry W. Richardson, Peter Gordon, Myung-Jin Jun, Mun H. Kim

Chapter 11. The Economic Impacts of SR-91 and I-5 Corridor Improvements

This chapter analyses two similar cases relating to freeway widening in Southern California: the first deals with the issue of how to expand a combined free-toll road corridor (SR91) and the second looks at the question of whether a section of the I-5 freeway should be expanded to 10 or 12 lanes.
Peter Gordon, James E. Moore, Qisheng Pan, Harry W. Richardson, Sunbin Cho, Christopher Williamson

Chapter 12. Peak Load Road Pricing: Potential Impacts on Los Angeles

Peak-load pricing has long been seen as a way to internalize externalities and as a set of incentives to shift some peak-hour trips to off-peak periods. The policy has also been viewed as a mechanism to generate revenue. However, it is an open question how travelers trade off time for money and respond to peak and off-peak pricing differentials. This generates some timely and related questions, including: (1) How can we model the activity location and traffic implications for multiple time-of-day periods in a major metropolitan area?; and (2) What are the network level-of-service and urban development effects of implementing peak-load pricing on selected routes?
Qisheng Pan, Harry W. Richardson, JiYoung Park, Peter Gordon, James E. Moore

Chapter 13. The Local Economic and Social Impacts of a University

There have been many studies of the economic impacts of universities over the years. Many of them focused on college towns where the university was the prime economic activity. This chapter focuses on a different case where the university (USC) had a major influence on one neighborhood, not the whole city or region. In fact, the USC economic impact accounts for 0.57 % of the City of Los Angeles gross regional product (GRP), 0.38 % of the County’s GRP and 0.11 % of the State of California’s 0.11 % of GSP (ERA 2009). The chapter focuses on two issues: the economic impact of the university (in terms of output and employment); and the effects of the university’s growth on neighborhood regeneration.
Harry W. Richardson, Peter Gordon, Qisheng Pan



Chapter 14. Conclusions

The primary purpose of this book of this book has been to develop a version of the multiregional input–output (MRIO) model for a large metropolitan region with many sub-areas (the five-county Southern California, namely the Los Angeles Consolidated Metropolitan Area). This SCPM model has a moderate degree of sectoral aggregation (47 sectors aggregated from 509). The key focus is on spatial disaggregation with 3,226 zones in the model (Traffic Analysis Zones or TAZs). The first version of the SCPM model was developed in a highly primitive form more than 20 years ago. However, in its current form, it is not a standard input–output model.
Harry W. Richardson
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