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The application of quantitative reliability evaluation in electric power sys­ tems has now evolved to the point at which most utilities use these techniques in one or more areas of their planning, design, and operation. Most of the techniques in use are based on analytical models and resulting analytical evaluation procedures. Improvements in and availability of high-speed digi­ tal computers have created the opportunity to analyze many of these prob­ lems using stochastic simulation methods and over the last decade there has been increased interest in and use made of Monte Carlo simulation in quantitative power system reliability assessment. Monte Carlo simulation is not a new concept and recorded applications have existed for at least 50 yr. However, localized high-speed computers with large-capacity storage have made Monte Carlo simulation an available and sometimes preferable option for many power system reliability applications. Monte Carlo simulation is also an integral part of a modern undergrad­ uate or graduate course on reliability evaluation of general engineering systems or specialized areas such as electric power systems. It is hoped that this textbook will help formalize the many existing applications of Monte Carlo simulation and assist in their integration in teaching programs. This book presents the basic concepts associated with Monte Carlo simulation.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Chapter 1. Introduction

Abstract
The primary function of an electric power system is to provide electrical energy to its customers as economically as possible and with an acceptable degree of continuity and quality. Modern society has come to expect that the supply of electrical energy will be continuously available on demand. This is not possible due to random failures of equipment and the system, which are generally outside the control of power system personnel. Electricity supply generally involves a very complex and highly integrated system. Failures in any part of it can cause interruptions which range from inconveniencing a small number of local residents, to major and widespread catastrophic disruptions of supply. The economic impact of these outages is not restricted to loss of revenue by the utility or loss of energy utilization by the customer but include indirect costs imposed on society and the environment due to the outage. In the case of the 1977 New York blackout, the total costs of the blackouts were suggested to be as high as $350 million, which 84% was attributed to indirect costs.(1)
Roy Billinton, Wenyuan Li

Chapter 2. Basic Concepts of Power System Reliability Evaluation

Abstract
The term reliability has a very wide range of meaning and cannot be associated with a single specific definition such as that often used in the missionoriented sense.(1) It is therefore necessary to recognize this fact and to use the term to indicate, in a general rather than a specific sense, the overall ability of the system to perform its function. Power system reliability assessment can therefore be divided into the two basic aspects of system adequacy and system security as shown in Figure 2.1.
Roy Billinton, Wenyuan Li

Chapter 3. Elements of Monte Carlo Methods

Abstract
The Monte Carlo method is the general designation for stochastic simulation using random numbers. Monte Carlo is the name of the suburb in Monaco made famous by its gambling casino. The name was also used as the secret code for atomic bomb work performed during World War II involving random simulation of the neutron diffusion process. Monte Carlo methods have been used in many areas since that time.
Roy Billinton, Wenyuan Li

Chapter 4. Generating System Adequacy Assessment

Abstract
Generating system adequacy assessment (HL1) is used to evaluate the ability of the system generating capacity to satisfy the total system load. This assessment can be conducted using either an analytical technique or the Monte Carlo method. A considerable number of papers involving analytical techniques are listed in References.(1–7) This chapter does not attempt to reiterate these analytical techniques but focuses an application of the Monte Carlo method in generating system adequacy assessment. Monte Carlo simulation can be considered to be more preferable than an analytical approach in situations which involve, for example, the following considerations:
1.
Time-dependent or chronological issues are considered.
 
2.
The duty cycle of peaking units are modeled.
 
3.
Nonexponential component state duration distributions are considered.
 
4.
Distributions of reliability indices are required.
 
5.
A large unacceptable set of states (unfeasible range) in multi-area generation system studies is involved.
 
Roy Billinton, Wenyuan Li

Chapter 5. Composite System Adequacy Assessment

Abstract
The basic objective of composite generation and transmission system adequacy assessment (HL2) is to evaluate the ability of the system to satisfy the load and energy requirements at the major load points. This evaluation domain involves the joint reliability problem of generating sources and transmission facilities and is sometimes called bulk system analysis. Although this activity came much later than comparably significant developments in HL1 evaluation, considerable effort has been devoted to this area over the last 25 years.(1–7)
Roy Billinton, Wenyuan Li

Chapter 6. Distribution System and Station Adequacy Assessment

Abstract
This chapter discusses the application of Monte Carlo methods to distribution system and station adequacy assessment. The basic system analysis logic associated with distribution system and station configuration adequacy assessment is very similar. The main approach is to examine the existence of continuity between the supply point(s) and the load points. Existence of continuity is associated not only with failures of line components, but also with the switching logic of breakers and section switches, protection device actions, and operating guidelines for backup supply sources. This is obviously quite different from the system analysis principles associated with generation adequacy or composite system adequacy assessment.
Roy Billinton, Wenyuan Li

Chapter 7. Reliability Cost/Worth Assessment

Abstract
The basic function of a modern electric power system is to provide electric power and energy to its customers at the lowest possible cost and at acceptable levels of reliability. Reliability worth assessment provides the opportunity to incorporate cost analysis and quantitative reliability assessment into a common structured framework.(1) Direct evaluation of reliability worth or benefit is very difficult and perhaps impossible and a variety of methods have evolved to provide monetary estimates.(2,3) Interruption costs are most often used to provide an indirect measure of reliability worth. It is important to realize that, while power system reliability assessment has become a well established practice over the last few decades, reliability worth assessment or unreliability cost evaluation is still relatively immature. The major reason for this is that the quantification of interruption costs is a complex and often subjective task.
Roy Billinton, Wenyuan Li

Backmatter

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