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## Über dieses Buch

This book introduces readers to essential technology assessment and forecasting tools, demonstrating their use on the basis of multiple cases. As organizations in the high-tech industry need to be able to assess emerging technologies, the book presents cases in which formal decision-making models are developed, providing a framework for decision-making in the context of technology acquisition and development. Applications of different technology forecasting tools are also discussed for a range of technologies and sectors, providing a guide to keep R&D organizations abreast of technological trends that affect their business. As such, the book offers a valuable the theoretical and practical reference guide for R&D managers responsible for emerging and future technologies.

## Inhaltsverzeichnis

### 1. Technology Assessment in the Automotive Sector

Abstract
Innovation is not a new concept, but the extent to which it is used is. Economies are shifting from industrial based to knowledge based innovation. Innovation has been effectively applied to product and manufacturing process innovation, but with the growth of innovation, more focus is being applied to improve management of innovation and information to effectively introduce the volume of innovation. This includes processes and tools used to manage innovation. Finally innovation is being applied to all areas and operations of businesses. Application of innovation to all parts of a business has been recognized as a crucial element to remain competitive.
This chapter examines some of the important components of innovation, works through an innovation case study at Daimler Trucks North America, and examines the potential application of Hierarchical Decision Method for innovation decision making.
The literature reviewed has revealed that innovation management techniques are growing and the characteristics of innovation management are becoming clearer. For companies to survive, core innovation is a must, adjacent innovation is strongly recommended for company growth, and transformational innovation, the riskiest of the three, brings the largest financial rewards. It is important to establish initiative priorities, especially in the core and adjacent innovations were there are typically more initiatives than available resources. To that end, the Hierarchical Decision Method is an effective method to establish innovation initiative priorities.
Henry Janzen, Yongjun Lee, Sridharkumar Paneerselvam, Purva Chhatre, Kenny Phan, Tugrul Daim

### 2. Technology Assessment in the Financial Sector

Abstract
The advancement of the internet and information technology has been a great vehicle for the development of solutions for all human endeavors. The banking and the financial services sector is a beneficiary of the advancement in information and communication technology, as banking has evolved from traditional services to internet-based. Examples of these are, online ATM Locator, electronic check deposit, quick bank-to-bank transfers and many more. However, the general adoption of mobile banking solutions worldwide is still not that encouraging. There are several drivers which affect the adoption of these internet-based banking solutions, such as socio-economic factors, mobile device adoption, and user behavior. This research focuses on enumerating the key factors for user adoption of mobile banking solutions. The factors are grouped into multiple perspectives and prioritized by using the Hierarchical Decision Model (HDM). Even though all the factors are shown to be important, solution reliability and consumer privacy emerged as the two to be prioritized when developing a consumer-based banking solution. The research recommends that banks should concentrate on identifying features that makes life convenient to the consumer with little to no cost involved.
Felix Sie, Rafaa Khalifa, Raghunath Viswanatha, Yasaswi Deepak Kancherla, Kenny Phan, Tugrul Daim

### 3. Technology Assessment in the Software Sector

Abstract
This chapter took a holistic approach of looking at the problem as an organizational decision making, which involve technical, personal and organizational factors which in reality does affect the decision making process, whether that is recognized or not. The hierarchical decision model (HDM) was used to structure the perspectives of decision making in an organization and the factors which are important for the selection of an ETL tool were laid under the appropriate perspectives. An Expert panel consisting of five experienced Database and Data integration professionals was constituted to evaluate the factors. The approach to selecting an ETL tool was demonstrated without necessarily selecting any candidate ETL tools. However, key insights to selecting an ETL tool were derived.
Felix Sie, Tugrul Daim

### 4. Technology Assessment in the Transportation and Retail Sectors

Abstract
Being a relatively new industry and technology, there are many Electric Vehicle (EV) charging stations that have hit the market. Each of these station have variety of business models, Cost, revenue potential, appearance, etc. that need to be evaluated when selecting a charger. This paper breaks down the decision for a Portland area retailer to help identify the key decision factors and evaluate the alternative charging station.
Roli Eyetsemitan, Lakshmi Rajogopal, Daniel Schmidlkofer, Bilgehan Yildiz, Furkan Yildirim, Tugrul Daim

### 5. Technology Assessment in the Energy Sector

Abstract
As time passes and our current rate of population increase is maintained, the demand for heated water for home uses grows as well. Such demands become taxing on the energy industry to maintain the supply of energy to heat the water. Although there are other methods in which we are able to heat water they are still at its infancy stage. This initial parts of the study are developed to understand the taxing demands that heated water has on our energy sector and the implications it has economically as well as environmentally. This project conducts a literature review to study the current water heating industry, which then is utilized to establish a GAP analysis that would help us correctly conduct a more accurate Hierarchal Decision Model (HDM). The objective of this study was to understand the different factors that influence the industry from the consumer perspective, as well as show the primary factors that need to be changed to implement more environmentally friendly solutions in heating water. Thus, allowing Government Regulators to develop regulations that help influence the industry in the right direction as well as allowing the Water Heating Industry to focus on features that are key to the consumer based of a developed platform.
Momtaj Khanam, Husam Barham, Alaa Nour, Sallam Thabet, Tugrul Daim

### 6. Technology Forecasting: Case of 3D Printing

Abstract
This purpose of this paper is to try and forecast the adoption rate of “consumer grade” 3D printers for use in a typical United States household. Several assumptions are made. The first assumption is made that the consumer will treat the 3D printer as a “durable good”. The second assumption is that the consumer’s purchasing limit will be $1000. The third assumption is that the cost of consumables will be less than the equivalent cost of the product when purchased. Aparna Balasubramanian, Curt Edmondson, Kruti Narvekar, Jisun Kim, Tugrul Daim ### 7. Technology Forecasting: Case of Robot Technology Abstract Though vacuum cleaning robots have been regarded as the most promising product which can penetrate the consumer market as a robotic product, the technology of vacuum cleaning robots seems not to be developed enough to snuggle into customers’ choice yet. And, the Technology development of vacuum cleaning robots depends on several factors driven by technological improvements in order to be adopted in the market. Therefore, this study questions why the technological factors cannot meet consumers’ expectation and how much improvements are required for these factors. For these questions, this study explored the problems which customers recognized on vacuum cleaning robots by customers’ voice analysis, and investigated current status and trends of vacuum cleaning robot technology developments. The results showed that some of technologies are not enough matured and developing actively for customers’ expectations. Apisit Charoensupyanant, Byung Sung Yoon, Edwin Garces, ShengTe Tsai, Jisun Kim, Tugrul Daim ### 8. Technology Forecasting: Case of Electric Vehicle Technology Abstract Electric vehicles are seen by the public as a solution to the growing societal concern of green house effect created by the transport sector. Moreover there is a strong consensus that in the future it will be cheaper to own and drive electric vehicles. Since the advent of electric vehicles in 1899 not much progress has been made to make electric vehicles available at reasonable cost to the public. In the last few years vehicle manufacturers started to manufacture electric vehicles but still the adaption rate is less than 1%. The available data on electric vehicles is therefore limited to shed light on the future adaption rate. Our literature review has shown that the most important factors for EV diffusion are oil price and technological advancement of EV. Therefore, these two factors have been used as the two axes in the scenario planning. The literature review also helped us identify the current policies, and what policies will remain in effect in the future, and until what year EV will be needing policy support before it becomes technologically and economically a viable option. This paper suggests policy implications depending on different scenarios until 2025. Characteristics and implication of these scenarios will also be discussed. Bilgehan Yildiz, Meles Hagos, Sukanya De, Jisun Kim, Tugrul Daim ### 9. Technology Forecasting: Case of RFID Technology Abstract Technology in Healthcare sector is undergoing a fast growth compared other sectors due to the opportunity for improvement. Among the few emerging technologies implemented in hospitals Radio frequency identification (RFID) is considered to be a prominent technology. Even though RFID has been applied successfully in various sectors like retail, manufacturing etc., the adoption pattern in hospitals differs because of factors like hospital application, risk, privacy and security. This chapter’s objective is to determine the adoption pattern of RFID in Healthcare considering such factors. The objective has achieved by using technology forecasting methods. The first part of the chapter helps understanding the application of RFID in hospitals and provides insight into technology forecasting methods. Second part of the chapter explains the execution of the methods with analysis and results derived considering RFID application in hospitals. In general this chapter provides an insight towards application of RFID technology in hospitals and opens up potential options which require further research to improve application of similar technologies in healthcare. Aarthi Neethirajan, Priti Maheshwari, Rajasree Talla, Shreya Goyal, Jisun Kim, Tugrul Daim ### 10. Technology Forecasting: Case of Solar Technology Abstract Electricity generation in the United States is primarily based on fossil fuels with very little of it coming from renewable energy sources. In the last few years the proportion of electricity generated by non hydropower based renewable sources has remained constant while generation from fossil fuels has increased. In this chapter, we provide a background of the sources of renewable electricity in the United States. We discuss thin film solar photovoltaics in detail with analyses of the strengths and weakness of this material. Collected data regarding historical manufacturing costs and current prices of electricity are used to put together a scenario analyses which could predict the viability of thin film solar panels. These factors include: • Human/Government factors • Manufacturing trends • Consideration of cost of ownership. • Conversion factors to compare solar power to standard electrical power. • Environmental impact factors Manar Al Mallak, Niharika Jeena, Isaac Pendergrass, Sumir Varma, Jisun Kim, Tugrul Daim ### Cases in Technology Management #### Frontmatter ### 11. Technology Management: Case of 3D Printing in Healthcare Abstract 3D Printing is a radical innovation that is enabling us to create personalized objects at low cost and quickly. Similar to Amazon’s success in the revolutionizing the retailing industry with Ecommerce, 3D printing technology is showing the promise of turning healthcare on its heel with its capacity of rapid prototyping and personalizing the solution to the patient. This gives us an opportunity to study this innovation using technology management principles and tools. We explored the technology using engineering, technology forecast and motivating factors [Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT)] models. We also conducted a market analysis to assess the expected economic return. The study highlighted the engineering challenge in developing the right biological materials and the appropriate 3D printing manufacturing processes. A time-based trend analysis of Bibliometrics in this technology segment drew us to the conclusion that this technology is straddling the innovator and the early adopter phases of the Technology Adoption Life Cycle (TALC). On the policy side, the motivating factors study highlighted the legal, ethical and regulatory challenges. But, the motivating factors review also highlighted the expansive benefits, both profit-based and humanitarian, of this technology. The research put together, showed that this disruptive technology will be a game-changer in the future of healthcare. Minh Lu, Sowmini Sengupta, Yen Tran, David Wigen, Tugrul Daim ### 12. Technology Management: Case of Facebook Abstract Social networking has increasingly become a part of everyone’s daily lives. In 2007, 1 in 12 online minutes were spent on social networking. By 2011 this time had increased to 1 in 5 min. Facebook, the dominant social network, was developed in 2004 as a communication tool, but now over 90% of its revenue is generated from advertising. In 2013, Facebook had approximately$7.8 billion in total revenue, accounting for 68% of the online social networking market share.
Haneen Abu-Khater, Nick Metzar, Mohammed Alotaibi, Zeina Boulos, Wendy Lally, Tugrul Daim

### 13. Technology Management: Case of Cost, Frugal and Reverse Innovations

Abstract
The forces of globalization have created an interconnected world where consumer demand for high tech products and services is rapidly growing in emerging markets. Established multinational firms are facing increasing competitive pressures from new firms in developing countries. In order to maintain a strategic competitive advantage, firms must be adept at developing high value and low cost products and services that are tailored to specific market segment’s needs. The purpose of this study is to aid firms in identifying the appropriate new product development strategy to pursue.
Michael Clark, Yongjun Lee, Yi Tseng Lin, Sharanya Madishetty, Tugrul Daim

### 14. Technology Management: Case of an Organization in Transition

Abstract
Quality Control Initiatives (QCI) are a very important part of staying competitive in today’s business environment. QCI’s based on principles and methodologies such as LEAN and Six Sigma in the field of manufacturing as can result in large improvements to the bottom line by reducing cycle time, costs, variability and improving other metrics such as yields.
QCI implementations within organizations depend on many factors—the most important of which is the employees within the organization charged with, and being asked to undertake the implementation.
In 2013, a high technology semiconductor manufacturing company “X” located near Portland, Oregon underwent a LEAN based QCI implementation QCI over a period of a few months. This is a case study dealing with the implementation approach, analysis, how the implementation was perceived by employees at different portions of the organization, and what would an ideal implementation in such an environment look like.
Sumir Varma, Tugrul Daim

### 15. Technology Management: Case of the Internet of Technologies and Smart City

Abstract
The omnipresence of engineering and technology in today’s world is undeniable. Technology creates continuous change and opportunity, but also presents challenges and threats in many aspects of daily life. Because of the need to mitigate risks while optimizing opportunities, managing engineering and technology has become a priority for companies, organizations, governments and individuals. The Internet of Things (IoT) is one result of this constant evolution of technology. It describes a system where items in the physical world, and sensors within or attached to these items, are connected to a global network of items via the Internet. Progressive cities that have embraced technology in their development have also helped develop the concept of a Smart City, an integrated urban system based on smarter infrastructure driven by technology. Our aim is to analyze, using a technology management approach, different ways that IoT will help improve urban transportation efficiency in smart cities, traffic management and parking. We conduct a literature review and a multi-criteria analysis based on the STEEP perspectives. Additionally, we will provide suggestions on promising practices to help cities improve transportation efficiency. Through our research and analysis of literature, we conclude that effectively leveraging the promise of IoT in smart cities, with respect to traffic management and parking, urban planners and policy makers must include the following activities: identify current technology and trends in parking and traffic management; identify problems or challenges that need to be solved through the integration of IoT and urban mobility planning; identify primary considerations from each of the STEEP perspectives; and communicate how effective management, (of the STEEP perspectives), plays a crucial role in successful implementation of smart city growth.
Ellie Bradley, Oussama Laraichi, Mark Ryan, Sudipta Tripathy, Hans VanDerSchaaf, Tugrul U. Daim
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