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2013 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

1. Review of Macroeconomic Performance in the First Half of 2012

verfasst von : Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University

Erschienen in: China's Macroeconomic Outlook

Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg

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Abstract

In the first half of 2012, the quarterly growth rate of China’s GDP continued to decline compared to the same period of last year. The cumulative growth rate of GDP for the first half was 7.8 %, which is the lowest level since the first quarter of 2010. From the long term perspective, the slowdown of economic growth is the outcome of global economy rebalancing. It also is associated with the declining of China’s potential economic growth rate, after China ended a development stage with two-digit growth rate over the past 30 years and stepped into a new development stage at a slight low growth rate as a middle income country. From the short term perspective, it was partly due to economic recession in the euro area. It also resulted from excess production capacity, structural imbalance in manufacturing industry caused by rapid domestic investment expansion in the past few years, and the new real estate market regulations. The declining economic growth in China, together with uncertainty of the EU and the US economy, has triggered concerns about the future economic outlook. Thus, it is highly important that China adopts proper measure to stabilize economic growth and create conditions for further social and economic reforms and transformation of economic development pattern (Fig. 1.1).

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Fußnoten
1
In July, CPI further dropped to 1.8 %. If not specially noted, all growth rate below is Year-On-Year growth rate.
 
2
From May 2012, the global price of food in the next half year or even in 2013 might be pulled up due to the draught in western and central of U.S., which indicates the pressure of imported inflation is still high.
 
3
PMI dropped to 50.1 in July based on data published on Aug 2nd.
 
4
After seasonally adjusted, the growth rate for export, import and the total value of exports and imports were 1.6 %, 1.2 %, 1.4 % respectively. And on the month-on-month basis, the growth rate for export, import and the total value of exports and imports were −4.2 %, −5.8 %, −4.9 % respectively.
 
5
Deposit reserve rate was sliced down twice in February and May, respectively, from 20.5 % at the end of 2011 to current 19.5 %. The 1-year interest rate of loan was reduced twice in June and July, by about 0.25 percentage point and 0.31 percentage point for each adjustment, respectively.
 
Metadaten
Titel
Review of Macroeconomic Performance in the First Half of 2012
verfasst von
Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University
Copyright-Jahr
2013
Verlag
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-36923-0_1