Skip to main content

2013 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

11. Review of Operations Research Tools and Techniques Used for Influenza Pandemic Planning

verfasst von : David W. Hutton

Erschienen in: Operations Research and Health Care Policy

Verlag: Springer New York

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

Many public health officials are concerned about a possible influenza pandemic. The three pandemics in the twentieth century killed between 50 and 100 million people and the 2009 H1N1 “Swine Flu” exposed vulnerabilities that we still have to influenza epidemics. Operations research tools and techniques can analyze public health interventions to mitigate the impact of pandemic influenza. In this chapter we review an array of examples of how operations research tools can be used to improve pandemic influenza prevention and response. From this, we derive insights into the appropriateness of certain techniques for answering specific questions and we propose preliminary policy recommendations. We then discuss opportunities for future research.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literatur
1.
Zurück zum Zitat Potter CW (2001) A history of influenza. J Appl Microbiol 91:572–579CrossRef Potter CW (2001) A history of influenza. J Appl Microbiol 91:572–579CrossRef
3.
Zurück zum Zitat Cunha BA (2004) Influenza: historical aspects of epidemics and pandemics. Infect Dis Clin North Am 18:141–155CrossRef Cunha BA (2004) Influenza: historical aspects of epidemics and pandemics. Infect Dis Clin North Am 18:141–155CrossRef
4.
Zurück zum Zitat Crosby AW. Influenza. In: Kiple KF, editor. The Cambridge world history of human disease. Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press; 1993. pp. 807–811. Crosby AW. Influenza. In: Kiple KF, editor. The Cambridge world history of human disease. Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press; 1993. pp. 807–811.
5.
Zurück zum Zitat Taubenberger JK, Morens DM (2009) Pandemic influenza—including a risk assessment of H5N1. Rev Sci Tech 28:187–202 Taubenberger JK, Morens DM (2009) Pandemic influenza—including a risk assessment of H5N1. Rev Sci Tech 28:187–202
6.
Zurück zum Zitat Johnson NP, Mueller J (2002) Updating the accounts: global mortality of the 1918–1920 “Spanish” influenza pandemic. Bull Hist Med 76:105–115CrossRef Johnson NP, Mueller J (2002) Updating the accounts: global mortality of the 1918–1920 “Spanish” influenza pandemic. Bull Hist Med 76:105–115CrossRef
8.
Zurück zum Zitat Dowdle WR (1999) Influenza A virus recycling revisited. Bull World Health Org 77:820–828 Dowdle WR (1999) Influenza A virus recycling revisited. Bull World Health Org 77:820–828
9.
Zurück zum Zitat Viboud C, Miller M, Olson D, Osterholm M, Simonsen L (2010) Preliminary estimates of mortality and years of life lost associated with the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic in the US and comparison with past influenza seasons. PLoS Curr 2:RRN1153 Viboud C, Miller M, Olson D, Osterholm M, Simonsen L (2010) Preliminary estimates of mortality and years of life lost associated with the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic in the US and comparison with past influenza seasons. PLoS Curr 2:RRN1153
10.
Zurück zum Zitat Taubenberger JK, Reid AH, Lourens RM, Wang R, Jin G, Fanning TG (2005) Characterization of the 1918 influenza virus polymerase genes. Nature 437:889–893CrossRef Taubenberger JK, Reid AH, Lourens RM, Wang R, Jin G, Fanning TG (2005) Characterization of the 1918 influenza virus polymerase genes. Nature 437:889–893CrossRef
14.
Zurück zum Zitat Goji NA, Nolan C, Hill H, Wolff M, Noah DL, Williams TB, Rowe T, Treanor JJ (2008) Immune responses of healthy subjects to a single dose of intramuscular inactivated influenza A/Vietnam/1203/2004 (H5N1) vaccine after priming with an antigenic variant. J Infect Dis 198:635–641CrossRef Goji NA, Nolan C, Hill H, Wolff M, Noah DL, Williams TB, Rowe T, Treanor JJ (2008) Immune responses of healthy subjects to a single dose of intramuscular inactivated influenza A/Vietnam/1203/2004 (H5N1) vaccine after priming with an antigenic variant. J Infect Dis 198:635–641CrossRef
15.
Zurück zum Zitat Khazeni N, Bravata DM, Holty JE, Uyeki TM, Stave CD, Gould MK (2009) Systematic review: safety and efficacy of extended-duration antiviral chemoprophylaxis against pandemic and seasonal influenza. Ann Intern Med 151:464–473 Khazeni N, Bravata DM, Holty JE, Uyeki TM, Stave CD, Gould MK (2009) Systematic review: safety and efficacy of extended-duration antiviral chemoprophylaxis against pandemic and seasonal influenza. Ann Intern Med 151:464–473
16.
Zurück zum Zitat Monto AS (2005) The threat of an avian influenza pandemic. N Engl J Med 352:323–325CrossRef Monto AS (2005) The threat of an avian influenza pandemic. N Engl J Med 352:323–325CrossRef
17.
Zurück zum Zitat Poland GA (2006) Vaccines against avian influenza—a race against time. N Engl J Med 354:1411–1413CrossRef Poland GA (2006) Vaccines against avian influenza—a race against time. N Engl J Med 354:1411–1413CrossRef
18.
Zurück zum Zitat Tracht SM, Del Valle SY, Hyman JM (2010) Mathematical Modeling of the effectiveness of facemasks in reducing the spread of novel influenza A (H1N1). PLoS ONE 5(2):e9018CrossRef Tracht SM, Del Valle SY, Hyman JM (2010) Mathematical Modeling of the effectiveness of facemasks in reducing the spread of novel influenza A (H1N1). PLoS ONE 5(2):e9018CrossRef
19.
Zurück zum Zitat Cowling BJ, Chan KH, Fang VJ, Cheng CK, Fung RO, Wai W, Sin J, Seto WH, Yung R, Chu DW, Chiu BC, Lee PW, Chiu MC, Lee HC, Uyeki TM, Houck PM, Peiris JS, Leung GM (2009) Facemasks and hand hygiene to prevent influenza transmission in households: a cluster randomized trial. Ann Intern Med 151:437–446 Cowling BJ, Chan KH, Fang VJ, Cheng CK, Fung RO, Wai W, Sin J, Seto WH, Yung R, Chu DW, Chiu BC, Lee PW, Chiu MC, Lee HC, Uyeki TM, Houck PM, Peiris JS, Leung GM (2009) Facemasks and hand hygiene to prevent influenza transmission in households: a cluster randomized trial. Ann Intern Med 151:437–446
20.
Zurück zum Zitat Schull MJ, Stukel TA, Vermeulen MJ, Guttmann A, Zwarenstein M (2006) Surge capacity associated with restrictions on nonurgent hospital utilization and expected admissions during an influenza pandemic: lessons from the Toronto severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak. Acad Emerg Med 13:1228–1231CrossRef Schull MJ, Stukel TA, Vermeulen MJ, Guttmann A, Zwarenstein M (2006) Surge capacity associated with restrictions on nonurgent hospital utilization and expected admissions during an influenza pandemic: lessons from the Toronto severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak. Acad Emerg Med 13:1228–1231CrossRef
21.
Zurück zum Zitat Brailsford SC, Hilton NA (2001) A comparison of discrete event simulation and system dynamics for modelling health care systems Brailsford SC, Hilton NA (2001) A comparison of discrete event simulation and system dynamics for modelling health care systems
22.
Zurück zum Zitat Brailsford, SC, Hilton NA, (2001) A comparison of discrete event simulation and system dynamics for modelling health care systems. In, Riley J, (ed.) Planning for the Future: Health Service Quality and Emergency Accessibility. Operational Research Applied to Health Services (ORAHS), Glasgow Caledonian University. Brailsford, SC, Hilton NA, (2001) A comparison of discrete event simulation and system dynamics for modelling health care systems. In, Riley J, (ed.) Planning for the Future: Health Service Quality and Emergency Accessibility. Operational Research Applied to Health Services (ORAHS), Glasgow Caledonian University.
23.
Zurück zum Zitat Samuelson DA, Macal CM (2006) Agent-based simulation comes of age. OR/MS Today 33. Samuelson DA, Macal CM (2006) Agent-based simulation comes of age. OR/MS Today 33.
24.
Zurück zum Zitat Larson RC (2007) Simple models of influenza progression within a heterogeneous population. Oper Res 55:399–412CrossRef Larson RC (2007) Simple models of influenza progression within a heterogeneous population. Oper Res 55:399–412CrossRef
25.
Zurück zum Zitat Nigmatulina KR, Larson RC. Stopping pandemic flu: government and community interventions in a multi-community model; 2007. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineering Systems Division Working Paper Series, No. ESD-WP-2007-28. Nigmatulina KR, Larson RC. Stopping pandemic flu: government and community interventions in a multi-community model; 2007. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineering Systems Division Working Paper Series, No. ESD-WP-2007-28.
26.
Zurück zum Zitat Lee VJ, Chen MI (2007) Effectiveness of neuraminidase inhibitors for preventing staff absenteeism during pandemic influenza. Emerg Infect Dis 13:449–457CrossRef Lee VJ, Chen MI (2007) Effectiveness of neuraminidase inhibitors for preventing staff absenteeism during pandemic influenza. Emerg Infect Dis 13:449–457CrossRef
27.
Zurück zum Zitat Khazeni N, Hutton DW, Garber AM, Hupert N, Owens DK (2009) Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccination against pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009. Ann Intern Med 151:829–839 Khazeni N, Hutton DW, Garber AM, Hupert N, Owens DK (2009) Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccination against pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009. Ann Intern Med 151:829–839
30.
Zurück zum Zitat Khazeni N, Hutton DW, Garber AM, Owens DK (2009) Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of expanded antiviral prophylaxis and adjuvanted vaccination strategies for an influenza A (H5N1) pandemic. Ann Intern Med 151:840–853 Khazeni N, Hutton DW, Garber AM, Owens DK (2009) Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of expanded antiviral prophylaxis and adjuvanted vaccination strategies for an influenza A (H5N1) pandemic. Ann Intern Med 151:840–853
31.
Zurück zum Zitat Lugner AK, Postma MJ (2009) Investment decisions in influenza pandemic contingency planning: cost-effectiveness of stockpiling antiviral drugs. Eur J Public Health 19:516–520CrossRef Lugner AK, Postma MJ (2009) Investment decisions in influenza pandemic contingency planning: cost-effectiveness of stockpiling antiviral drugs. Eur J Public Health 19:516–520CrossRef
32.
Zurück zum Zitat Medlock J, Galvani AP (2009) Optimizing influenza vaccine distribution. Science 325:1705–1708CrossRef Medlock J, Galvani AP (2009) Optimizing influenza vaccine distribution. Science 325:1705–1708CrossRef
33.
Zurück zum Zitat Brandeau ML, Zaric GS, Richter A (2003) Resource allocation for control of infectious diseases in multiple independent populations: beyond cost-effectiveness analysis. J Health Econ 22:575–598CrossRef Brandeau ML, Zaric GS, Richter A (2003) Resource allocation for control of infectious diseases in multiple independent populations: beyond cost-effectiveness analysis. J Health Econ 22:575–598CrossRef
34.
Zurück zum Zitat Aaby K, Herrmann JW, Jordan CS, Treadwell M, Wood K (2006) Montgomery Countys Public Health Service uses operations research to plan emergency mass dispensing and vaccination clinics. Interfaces 36:569–579CrossRef Aaby K, Herrmann JW, Jordan CS, Treadwell M, Wood K (2006) Montgomery Countys Public Health Service uses operations research to plan emergency mass dispensing and vaccination clinics. Interfaces 36:569–579CrossRef
35.
Zurück zum Zitat Aaby K, Abbey RL, Herrmann JW, Treadwell M, Jordan CS, Wood K (2006) Embracing computer modeling to address pandemic influenza in the 21st century. J Public Health Manag Pract 12:365 Aaby K, Abbey RL, Herrmann JW, Treadwell M, Jordan CS, Wood K (2006) Embracing computer modeling to address pandemic influenza in the 21st century. J Public Health Manag Pract 12:365
36.
Zurück zum Zitat Lee EK, Maheshwary S, Mason J, Glisson W (2006) Decision support system for mass dispensing of medications for infectious disease outbreaks and bioterrorist attacks. Ann Oper Res 148:25–53CrossRef Lee EK, Maheshwary S, Mason J, Glisson W (2006) Decision support system for mass dispensing of medications for infectious disease outbreaks and bioterrorist attacks. Ann Oper Res 148:25–53CrossRef
37.
Zurück zum Zitat Zaric GS, Bravata DM, Holty JEC, McDonald KM, Owens DK, Brandeau ML (2008) Modeling the logistics of response to anthrax bioterrorism. Med Decis Making 28:332–350CrossRef Zaric GS, Bravata DM, Holty JEC, McDonald KM, Owens DK, Brandeau ML (2008) Modeling the logistics of response to anthrax bioterrorism. Med Decis Making 28:332–350CrossRef
38.
Zurück zum Zitat Bravata D, Zaric G, Holty J, Brandeau M, Wilhelm E, McDonald K, Owens D (2006) Reducing mortality from anthrax bioterrorism: strategies for stockpiling and dispensing medical and pharmaceutical supplies. Biosecur Bioterror 4:244–262CrossRef Bravata D, Zaric G, Holty J, Brandeau M, Wilhelm E, McDonald K, Owens D (2006) Reducing mortality from anthrax bioterrorism: strategies for stockpiling and dispensing medical and pharmaceutical supplies. Biosecur Bioterror 4:244–262CrossRef
39.
Zurück zum Zitat Ferguson NM, Cummings DA, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Riley S, Meeyai A, Iamsirithaworn S, Burke DS (2005) Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature 437:209–214CrossRef Ferguson NM, Cummings DA, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Riley S, Meeyai A, Iamsirithaworn S, Burke DS (2005) Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature 437:209–214CrossRef
40.
Zurück zum Zitat Ferguson NM, Cummings DA, Fraser C, Cajka JC, Cooley PC, Burke DS (2006) Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic. Nature 442:448–452CrossRef Ferguson NM, Cummings DA, Fraser C, Cajka JC, Cooley PC, Burke DS (2006) Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic. Nature 442:448–452CrossRef
41.
Zurück zum Zitat Longini IM, Jr, Halloran ME, Nizam A, Yang Y (2004) Containing pandemic influenza with antiviral agents. Am J Epidemiol 159:623–633CrossRef Longini IM, Jr, Halloran ME, Nizam A, Yang Y (2004) Containing pandemic influenza with antiviral agents. Am J Epidemiol 159:623–633CrossRef
42.
Zurück zum Zitat Longini IM, Nizam A, Xu SF, Ungchusak K, Hanshaoworakul W, Cummings DAT, Halloran ME (2005) Containing pandemic influenza at the source. Science 309:1083–1087CrossRef Longini IM, Nizam A, Xu SF, Ungchusak K, Hanshaoworakul W, Cummings DAT, Halloran ME (2005) Containing pandemic influenza at the source. Science 309:1083–1087CrossRef
43.
Zurück zum Zitat Patel R, Longini IM, Halloran ME (2005) Finding optimal vaccination strategies for pandemic influenza using genetic algorithms. J Theor Biol 234:201–212CrossRef Patel R, Longini IM, Halloran ME (2005) Finding optimal vaccination strategies for pandemic influenza using genetic algorithms. J Theor Biol 234:201–212CrossRef
44.
Zurück zum Zitat Germann TC, Kadau K, Longini IM, Macken CA (2006) Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 103:5935–5940CrossRef Germann TC, Kadau K, Longini IM, Macken CA (2006) Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 103:5935–5940CrossRef
45.
Zurück zum Zitat Sander B, Nizam A, Garrison LP, Postma MJ, Halloran ME, Longini IM (2009) Economic evaluation of influenza pandemic mitigation strategies in the United States using a stochastic microsimulation transmission model. Value Health 12:226–233CrossRef Sander B, Nizam A, Garrison LP, Postma MJ, Halloran ME, Longini IM (2009) Economic evaluation of influenza pandemic mitigation strategies in the United States using a stochastic microsimulation transmission model. Value Health 12:226–233CrossRef
46.
Zurück zum Zitat Glass RJ, Min HJ, Beyeler WE, Glass LM, 2007, “Design of Community Containment for Pandemic Influenza with Loki-Infect,” SAND Number 2007–1184P. Sandia National Laboratories: Albuquerque, NM. Glass RJ, Min HJ, Beyeler WE, Glass LM, 2007, “Design of Community Containment for Pandemic Influenza with Loki-Infect,” SAND Number 2007–1184P. Sandia National Laboratories: Albuquerque, NM.
47.
Zurück zum Zitat Perlroth DJ, Glass RJ, Davey VJ, Cannon D, Garber AM, Owens DK (2010) Health outcomes and costs of community mitigation strategies for an influenza pandemic in the United States. Clin Infect Dis 50:165–174CrossRef Perlroth DJ, Glass RJ, Davey VJ, Cannon D, Garber AM, Owens DK (2010) Health outcomes and costs of community mitigation strategies for an influenza pandemic in the United States. Clin Infect Dis 50:165–174CrossRef
48.
Zurück zum Zitat Kornish LJ, Keeney RL (2008) Repeated commit-or-defer decisions with a deadline: the influenza vaccine composition. Oper Res 56:527–541CrossRef Kornish LJ, Keeney RL (2008) Repeated commit-or-defer decisions with a deadline: the influenza vaccine composition. Oper Res 56:527–541CrossRef
49.
Zurück zum Zitat Wu JT, Wein LM, Perelson AS (2005) Optimization of influenza vaccine selection. Oper Res 53:456–476CrossRef Wu JT, Wein LM, Perelson AS (2005) Optimization of influenza vaccine selection. Oper Res 53:456–476CrossRef
50.
Zurück zum Zitat Balicer RD, Huerta M, Davidovitch N, Grotto I (2005) Cost-benefit of stockpiling drugs for influenza pandemic. Emerg Infect Dis 11:1280–1282CrossRef Balicer RD, Huerta M, Davidovitch N, Grotto I (2005) Cost-benefit of stockpiling drugs for influenza pandemic. Emerg Infect Dis 11:1280–1282CrossRef
51.
Zurück zum Zitat Lee VJ, Phua KH, Chen MI, Chow A, Ma S, Goh KT, Leo YS (2006) Economics of neuraminidase inhibitor stock piling for pandemic influenza, Singapore. Emerg Infect Dis 12:95–102CrossRef Lee VJ, Phua KH, Chen MI, Chow A, Ma S, Goh KT, Leo YS (2006) Economics of neuraminidase inhibitor stock piling for pandemic influenza, Singapore. Emerg Infect Dis 12:95–102CrossRef
52.
Zurück zum Zitat Siddiqui MR, Edmunds WJ (2008) Cost-effectiveness of antiviral stockpiling and near-patient testing for potential influenza pandemic. Emerg Infect Dis 14:267–274CrossRef Siddiqui MR, Edmunds WJ (2008) Cost-effectiveness of antiviral stockpiling and near-patient testing for potential influenza pandemic. Emerg Infect Dis 14:267–274CrossRef
53.
Zurück zum Zitat Chick SE, Mamani H, Simchi-Levi D (2008) Supply chain coordination and influenza vaccination. Oper Res 56:1493–1506CrossRef Chick SE, Mamani H, Simchi-Levi D (2008) Supply chain coordination and influenza vaccination. Oper Res 56:1493–1506CrossRef
54.
Zurück zum Zitat Sun P, Yang L, de Vericourt F (2009) Selfish drug allocation for containing an international influenza pandemic at the onset. Oper Res 57:1320–1332CrossRef Sun P, Yang L, de Vericourt F (2009) Selfish drug allocation for containing an international influenza pandemic at the onset. Oper Res 57:1320–1332CrossRef
55.
Zurück zum Zitat DeLaurentis P-C, Adida E, Lawley M (2008) A game theoretical approach for hospital stockpile in preparation for pandemics. Proceedings of the 2008 industrial engineering research conference 1772–1777. Vancouver, BC DeLaurentis P-C, Adida E, Lawley M (2008) A game theoretical approach for hospital stockpile in preparation for pandemics. Proceedings of the 2008 industrial engineering research conference 1772–1777. Vancouver, BC
56.
Zurück zum Zitat DeLaurentis PC, Adida E, Lawley M (2009) Hospital stockpiling for influenza pandemics with pre-determined response levels. IEEE/INFORMS international conference on service operations, logistics and informatics, Chicago, IL, pp 37–42 DeLaurentis PC, Adida E, Lawley M (2009) Hospital stockpiling for influenza pandemics with pre-determined response levels. IEEE/INFORMS international conference on service operations, logistics and informatics, Chicago, IL, pp 37–42
57.
Zurück zum Zitat Ekici A, Keskinocak P, Swann JL (2008) Pandemic influenza response. Proceedings of the 2008 winter simulation conference 1592–1600, Miami, FL Ekici A, Keskinocak P, Swann JL (2008) Pandemic influenza response. Proceedings of the 2008 winter simulation conference 1592–1600, Miami, FL
58.
Zurück zum Zitat Longini IM, Jr, Halloran ME (2005) Strategy for distribution of influenza vaccine to high-risk groups and children. Am J Epidemiol 161:303–306CrossRef Longini IM, Jr, Halloran ME (2005) Strategy for distribution of influenza vaccine to high-risk groups and children. Am J Epidemiol 161:303–306CrossRef
Metadaten
Titel
Review of Operations Research Tools and Techniques Used for Influenza Pandemic Planning
verfasst von
David W. Hutton
Copyright-Jahr
2013
Verlag
Springer New York
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-6507-2_11