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2018 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

20. Risk Assessment Using Group Elicitation: Case Study on Start-up of a New Logistics System

verfasst von : Markus Porthin, Tony Rosqvist, Susanna Kunttu

Erschienen in: Elicitation

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

This chapter presents a risk assessment for the start-up of a new logistics system within the pulp and paper manufacturer Stora Enso. The risk assessment was realised as a structured expert elicitation workshop using a computerised group support system. Experts representing different parts of the logistics system were invited to a one-day workshop to assess risks concerning the system start-up. The main topics of the workshop were hazard identification, risk estimation and risk control. Each identified risk scenario was assessed with regard to its likelihood and three consequence types related to logistics: timeliness, product quality and information quality. The top priority risks were identified and risk controls were outlined.
The computerised group support system made the workshop more efficient due to the possibility of simultaneous inputs from all participants to a shared environment, versatile processing possibilities of the inputs, voting features with instant results and automated documentation. An essential factor for the success of the workshop was thorough preparation in cooperation between the analysts and the problem owner. Each step of the workshop process was specified and special attention was given to ensure the elicitation questions were clear and unambiguous.
The risk assessment resulted in a prioritised list of realistic risk scenarios for the start-up of the logistics system and control ideas for the most important risks. The results helped the company structure their work to ensure a problem free start-up. In addition, the workshop participants found it valuable to meet representatives from other parts of the logistics chain.

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Fußnoten
1
Here the term likelihood is used instead of probability, because the elicitation was done using a 1–5 scale whereas probability per definition is a number between 0 and 1. However, probabilities were used in the definition of the likelihood scale (Table 20.1).
 
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Metadaten
Titel
Risk Assessment Using Group Elicitation: Case Study on Start-up of a New Logistics System
verfasst von
Markus Porthin
Tony Rosqvist
Susanna Kunttu
Copyright-Jahr
2018
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65052-4_20