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2018 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

19. Risks and Logical Fallacies

verfasst von : Mats Larsson

Erschienen in: Circular Business Models

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

This chapter summarizes some of the conclusions. Despite a widespread belief that development will continue along the same path as in the past, the society is vulnerable. There is a high risk that oil production soon will start to decline, with shortfalls in one of the economy’s most important resources as the main consequence. Shortages are likely to cause economic disruptions. Experts and decision makers have failed to recognize the scale and the systemic aspects of the transformation. Due to the pressing timeframe, it is highly unlikely that the market automatically will allocate resources to the transformation activities that need to be prioritized. It is important to start preparations, but at present, little attention is paid to some of the most important issues.

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Fußnoten
2
A large number of books propagate the idea of self-sufficiency and the interest in gardening seems to have grown. There are both books that discuss this as a way of transitioning to a less resource-dependent society and those that are handbooks in self-sufficiency gardening, permaculture, and other themes related to growing vegetables and other skills that are important for people who want to increase self-sufficiency.
 
3
Kenneth Deffeyes—Beyond Oil, pp. xi–xii.
 
4
The first oil well, the Drake Well, was opened up for production in 1859.
 
5
Professor Kjell Aleklett, one of the experts who coined the term Peak Oil, mentioned this in a blob posting in December of 2016.
 
6
Aleklett, Kjell—Peeking at Peak Oil, p. 18.
 
7
Richard Heinberg—Snake Oil, pp. 62–68.
 
9
Daniel Kahneman—Thinking, Fast and Slow, p. 8.
 
10
Ibid., pp. 97–105.
 
11
Ibid., pp. 109–118.
 
12
Ibid., pp. 119–128.
 
13
Ibid., pp. 129–136.
 
14
Smil, Vaclav—Power Density p. 227.
 
Literatur
Zurück zum Zitat Aleklett, K. (2012). Peeking at Peak Oil. New York: Springer. Aleklett, K. (2012). Peeking at Peak Oil. New York: Springer.
Zurück zum Zitat Darley, J. (2006). High Noon for Natural Gas. White River Junction: Chelsea Green. Darley, J. (2006). High Noon for Natural Gas. White River Junction: Chelsea Green.
Zurück zum Zitat Kahneman, D. (2012). Thinking, Fast and Slow. London: Penguin Books. Kahneman, D. (2012). Thinking, Fast and Slow. London: Penguin Books.
Zurück zum Zitat Smil, V. (2015). Power Density. Cambridge: MIT Press. Smil, V. (2015). Power Density. Cambridge: MIT Press.
Zurück zum Zitat Tertzakian, P. A. (2007). Thousand Barrels a Second. New York: McGraw Hill. Tertzakian, P. A. (2007). Thousand Barrels a Second. New York: McGraw Hill.
Metadaten
Titel
Risks and Logical Fallacies
verfasst von
Mats Larsson
Copyright-Jahr
2018
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-71791-3_19