ROUTING OF NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTIONS THROUGH A RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL

The applicability of medium range quantitative precipitation forecasts is explored in a flood forecasting system for a medium-size mountainous basin. The results were obtained within the project of the 5

th

Framework Programme of the European Commission called “European Flood Forecasting System” (EFFS). As a pilot region for the Slovak part of the project, the upper Hron River basin with a drainage area of 1,766 km

2

was chosen. The basin is located in Central Slovakia and was considered to be representative for mountainous regions where flood generation from cyclonic rainfall and snowmelt processes plays an important role. Meteorological forecasts provided by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF deterministic model and ensemble forecasts), the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI – HIRLAM model), the German Weather Service (DWD LM and GME models), and the ALADIN model were used to drive a hydrological model. A conceptual semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model developed at the Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava was used for modelling runoff. The model was calibrated and verified using data from the period of 1991-2000. Hindcasted flows for the floods, which occurred in the upper Hron river basin in July