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This book describes a systematic approach to risk assessment for complex socio-technical systems like industrial processes, especially innovative ones. It provides an overview of applications of system dynamics theory and methodologies on industrial systems in order to demonstrate the relevance of such an approach in helping to assess risks in such complex systems.

An important feature of this approach is that it takes into account the dynamic of the interactions of the components (technical, human and organizational ones) in order to study and simulate the behavior of the system. This methodology helps to define the failures and/or accident scenarios and to implement and test the prevention and protection barriers.

This book is of particular interest to students and teachers at university level (Master and Doctorate) and to engineers interested in risk analysis and management.



Chapter 1. The Systemic Approach: Concepts, Method and Tools

The advent of the systemic approach heralded a turning point in the history of science and its application to the organization, and to production. The approach, which considers phenomena and problems as systems, only really began to distinguish itself from the classical analytical approach in the mid-twentieth century, but its origins are much older. The systemic approach, as it is currently called, can be considered as a general scientific paradigm, such as the Matter of Life or Society. It offers a generic way to construct and present valid, relevant and rational representations of the most diverse, changing situations. The general system theory, which was conceived by von Bertalanffy (General system theory. Foundations, development, applications. Georges Braziller, New York, 1968), encapsulates these ideas and entails a theoretical and practical method: modelling.
Emmanuel Garbolino, Jean-Pierre Chéry, Franck Guarnieri

Chapter 2. Systems Dynamics Applied to the Analysis of Risk at an Industrial Installation

This chapter presents a framework for the implementation of the dynamic modelling of systems to support risk management at an industrial facility. This approach, implemented using the STELLA® software package, provides the decision maker with a way to model a system and simulate its behaviour over time. It takes a dynamic approach to the analysis of industrial risks, based on four complementary stages that facilitate detailed analyses and the continuous improvement of risk management (Fig. 2.1):
  • Design of the dynamic model and simulation of system behaviour: This stage involves: identifying the variables that describe the state of continuously interacting system components; defining hypotheses that establish the interactions with a view to formalizing the proposed system; developing a model of causal relationships between variables; formulating these relationships as differential equations; and implementing them in software (Forrester 1961; Donnadieu and Karsky 2002).
  • Comprehensive failure analysis: This stage uses a classical risk analysis method, HAZOP (Andrews and Moss 2002). This method is used to try to identify all potential failures. Using the dynamic model, potential changes in the system’s behaviour can be analysed.
  • Comprehensive simulation of the consequences of failures: This stage uses the PHAST® software package (see the DNV website) to simulate hazardous phenomena (toxic emissions, overpressure, thermal flows, etc.) and assess their potential consequences.
  • Testing of prevention and protection methods: This stage consists of assessing the effectiveness of prevention, protection and backup measures. It makes it possible to define new measures, if necessary. The model can then be re-developed based on the assumption that the identified prevention and protection measures have been implemented (Garbolino et al. 2009).
Emmanuel Garbolino, Jean-Pierre Chéry, Franck Guarnieri

Chapter 3. System Dynamics Applied to the Human, Technical and Organizational Factors of Industrial Safety

In this chapter, system dynamics is applied to a socio-technical system in the chemical industry. The objective is to develop a dynamic model of the industrial system, which formalizes the causal interdependencies between the factors that define the safety conditions for that system. A systemic approach is applied to the case study of an chemical storage facility. The implementation, which is supported by Vensim® software, makes it possible to include the human, technical and organizational factors that all contribute to safety management (Bouloiz et al. 2013).
Hafida Bouloiz, Emmanuel Garbolino

Chapter 4. Modelling and Dynamic Analysis of Safety Behaviour

This chapter presents a dynamic analysis of the safety behaviour of operators and the organizational environment in which they work. This environment contains a set of factors (variables) that affect human behaviour in the context of industrial safety. These behavioural factors are identified from an initial analysis of the principal factors that influence how operators behave safely. The focus of this chapter is the explanatory factors that underlie safe behaviour and the causal relationships that link these factors, from a combined perspective of system dynamics and fuzzy logic. System dynamics is used to accurately define the causal interactions between this set of explanatory factors and represent them from a systemic and dynamic viewpoint. Fuzzy logic is subsequently used to take into account the qualitative and inexact nature of the variables involved. Taken together, system dynamics and fuzzy logic is used to develop a model that more accurately describes the safe behaviour of operators.
Hafida Bouloiz, Emmanuel Garbolino

Chapter 5. Stamp and the Systemic Approach

The desire to overcome the limitations of traditional accident models to take into account all of the interactions that are found in modern socio-technical systems, has led to the development of models that can represent all systemic changes. These models are founded on the idea that accidents are the result of inadequate controls that lead the system toward an accidental state.
Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Chapter 6. Using Stamp in the Risk Analysis of a Contaminated Sediment Treatment Process

Processes for remediation (removal of pollution or contaminants) of contaminated sediments have become very efficient. These technologies, which are particularly complex, call for a comprehensive approach to risk analysis which characterizes all threats (to humans, equipment, local residents, the environment etc.). The STAMP accident model (Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes) is an example of such a comprehensive approach, and it has been chosen to characterize the risks associated with Novosol®, an innovative remediation process. Risk analysis is carried out through the application of STPA (STamP-based Analysis).
Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Chapter 7. Contribution of the Stamp Model to Accident Analysis: Offloading Operations on a Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO)

The System Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP) is a new approach developed at MIT (Leveson N: Engineering a safer world: systems thinking applied to safety. https://​mitpress.​mit.​edu/​sites/​default/​files/​titles/​free_​download/​9780262016629_​Engineering_​a_​Safer_​World.​pdf, 2011) to analyse risks and prevent accidents in industries. STAMP draws upon theories that were developed in the mid-twentieth century in the fields of systems engineering and cybernetics. The approach provides the steps to follow to evaluate industrial system and to identify or design at the operational level the work tasks performed by its controlling systems (automated, or semi-automated with a human supervisor). The accident analyses approach proposed,in this article, differs from the paradigm normally used in the oil and gas installations in that it provides a comprehensive review of the industrial system. The analyses aims to inspect technical, human and organizational factors involved in an accident. In this chapter, the STAMP model is used to analyse the accident that happened on a Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) unit in the Gulf of Guinea.
Dahlia Oueidat, Thibaut Eude, Franck Guarnieri

Chapter 8. Systemic Risk Management Approach for CTSC Projects

Capture, Transport and Storage of CO2 (CTSC) is a technology contributing to industrial CO2 emissions and climate change mitigation. CTSC consists of a chain of processes to collect or capture a CO2 gas stream, transport the CO2 to a storage location and inject it into that location. The most significant source of CO2 emissions is the combustion of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas in power plants, automobiles and industrial facilities. A number of specialized industrial production processes and product uses such as mineral production (cement, lime, etc.), metal production (iron and steel, aluminum, etc.) and the use of petroleum-based products can also lead to CO2 emissions (US-EPA: Human-related sources and sinks of carbon dioxide, United States Environmental Protection Agency. Accessed August 2010 http://​www.​epa.​gov/​climatechange/​emissions/​co2_​human.​html#industrial, 2010).
Jaleh Samadi, Emmanuel Garbolino


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