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Erschienen in: Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering 8/2018

11.08.2017 | Original Paper

Safety Monitoring of High Arch Dams in Initial Operation Period Using Vector Error Correction Model

verfasst von: Guohe Liang, Yu Hu, Qingbin Li

Erschienen in: Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering | Ausgabe 8/2018

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Abstract

Conventional statistical models for dam safety monitoring often require long-term, continuous and stationary monitoring time series, which are difficult to fulfill in the initial operation period of the dams. In this study, special attention was given to the nonstationarity and lack of monitoring time series, and a vector error correction model was proposed for the safety monitoring of arch dams in their initial operation period. Principal component analysis was used in the data preprocessing stage to extract uncorrelated representative temperature trends of the dam body from hundreds of multisensor temperature records to reduce variable dimensions. Then, the vector error correction model was proposed, to take into account the cointegration between the structural responses and the environmental variables. The model was further extended in order to take into account the autocorrelation and cross-correlation among multiple structural responses. The established model performed better in terms of fitting and prediction accuracy compared with existing models and provided better forecast even when limited observations were available. The proposed method was successfully implemented to analyze the deformation of the Xiluodu arch dam in southwest China.

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Metadaten
Titel
Safety Monitoring of High Arch Dams in Initial Operation Period Using Vector Error Correction Model
verfasst von
Guohe Liang
Yu Hu
Qingbin Li
Publikationsdatum
11.08.2017
Verlag
Springer Vienna
Erschienen in
Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering / Ausgabe 8/2018
Print ISSN: 0723-2632
Elektronische ISSN: 1434-453X
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00603-017-1287-y

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