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Erschienen in:
2013 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel
3. Scenario Analyses of China’s Vehicle Ownership and Vehicle Traffic Services
verfasst von : Wang Hewu, Hao Han, Ouyang Minggao
Erschienen in: Sustainable Automotive Energy System in China
Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
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Abstract
A hybrid vehicle ownership model, which comprises three sub-models (private passenger vehicle population model, public traffic vehicle population model, and other vehicle population model), was established to simulate the growth of China’s vehicle population.
The passenger vehicle population model links the vehicle population and residents’ income distribution to forecast the growth of the private passenger vehicle population. The public traffic vehicle population model links the vehicle population, human population, and urbanization rate to forecast the growth of the vehicle population of urban public buses and taxis. The other vehicle population model links vehicle population growth and GDP growth to forecast the population of all other vehicles, including passenger vehicles for public affairs, other buses, and trucks. Passenger and freight traffic volume were projected based on the forecast results for the vehicle population.
The vehicle population and traffic volume were projected under two scenarios of reference scenario and comprehensive policy scenario. The reference scenarios and comprehensive policy scenarios employed in this section are the same as those in Chap. 12 for the vehicle energy development scenario. Chapter 12 presents the scenario definitions in detail, and the present section describes only the content related to vehicle population and vehicle traffic volume.