10. Scenario Planning for Sustainable Food Supply Chains

Regional impact scenarios of climate change show a high risk of supply deadlocks in respect to food security. Moreover, the impact of climate system on food security is induced by consumption systems due to shifting demand patterns within fast urbanization processes. Therefore, the transformational management of food supply chains shows an urgent demand for “integrated” and system-related solutions, considering related effects of resource scarcity (e.g., mineral fertilizers, water, constraints on energy use, and land use) as well as demographic change and interlinked resource consumption. Thus, the development of strategies for human wellbeing, national income generation, ecological stability, and social integrity have to be also considered while developing various scenarios for future food systems. Sustainable supply chain management (SSCM) could fertilize the trendsetting concept of the sustainable and innovative food supply chains by analyzing climate change impacts, adjustments in operational action fields, proactive countermeasures, as well as policy improvements being focused on the resilience of the food supply chains, meanwhile allocating the resources efficiently and meeting population demands.

With respect to food security, an integration beyond the primary/agricultural sectors should be carried out especially for water and/or energy intensive parts of the supply chain. The concept of the resource nexus combined with eco-innovations for supply chains within various scenarios is discussed in the given chapter. Based on scenario development and evaluation, new integrated methodological strategies for supply and value chain alternatives with higher climate change resilience are developed and suggested for efficient policy recommendations. Thus, the main aim of the given chapter is to discuss transition pathways for resilience-oriented natural resource use in food supply chains. Moreover, innovative strategies for making the food supply chains sustainable toward future climate change impacts as well as the influences of changing consumer behaviors are discussed. For this, all the relevant factors influencing food supply chains are combined into future possible scenarios. Such integrated scenarios determine transformational socioeconomic frameworks, while favoring the establishment of innovative business and value chains in terms of infrastructure development, business models, operations, cooperation, and service management.