Security Dynamics in the Black Sea Region

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1. Frontmatter

2. Introduction

   Kornely Kakachia, Stephan Malerius, Stefan Meister

   Abstract

   With Russia's large-scale invasion into Ukraine the Black Sea has become a key region, where the new European security order will be negotiated. For littoral states this has fundamental consequences as well as for the neighboring regions like the South Caucasus and Eastern Europe. With a comprehensive security approach this book researches the key security trends in the region.

3. Analytical Overview: A Comprehensive Approach to Black Sea Security

   Kornely Kakachia, Stephan Malerius, Stefan Meister

   Abstract

   This chapter provides a comprehensive examination of the evolving security landscape in the Black Sea region following Russia’s unprovoked military aggression against Ukraine in 2022. It explores the implications of this conflict on regional security paradigms and the shifting geopolitical landscape in the wider Black Sea area, South Caucasus, and Central Asia. Emphasizing the need for a new European security order, the chapter underscores the vital role of the EU, NATO, and Western allies in addressing the security challenges posed by Russia's aggressive actions. Drawing on the concept of comprehensive security, the chapter highlights the Black Sea region's strategic significance as a geopolitical hotspot. Furthermore, it sets a scene for detailed case-studies of all the relevant actors in the region included in this book and advocates for a multidimensional approach to security analysis to navigate the complex challenges and opportunities in the evolving regional landscape.

4. The EU, Comprehensive Security and the Changing Geopolitics of the Black Sea

   Sinikukka Saari

   Abstract

   The chapter studies the EU’s evolving approach to comprehensive security in the wider Black Sea region from 2007 up until today. The key argument is that the regional developments in the Black Sea have challenged European security narratives and self-perception, and these events have led not only to the transformation of the EU’s Black Sea policies but also to the EU’s self-perception as an actor. In other words, Russia’s policies in the Black Sea region have changed the EU’s “ontological security”. The changes in the EU’s external security ontology are a legitimate and prudent response to Russia’s use of military force and revisionism in the Black Sea region. However, cooperative security frameworks prevail as an internal European strategy, but their credibility depends on the EU’s and NATO’s ability to maintain credible deterrence in the region against Russia. Hence, cooperative and realist security frameworks are both integral and valuable parts of the European security landscape.

5. The US Approach to Security in the Black Sea Region

   Robert Hamilton

   Abstract

   Although the Black Sea Region (BSR) has risen in importance for the US since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, sustained US focus on the region is not guaranteed. Within Europe, the BSR has historically been a sideshow. Successive US administrations focused on defending NATO allies in Central and Eastern Europe, even as Russia was invading Georgia in 2008 and intervening in Ukraine since 2014. Globally, the BSR and Europe as a whole will compete with Asia for US attention and resources. Since the first Obama Administration, the US has been trying to shift its diplomatic, military and economic focus toward Asia, where it sees a rising China as a potential threat and growing economies as an opportunity. Ironically, Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and Georgia, and its destabilisation of other European states, has kept the US firmly anchored in Europe, despite its desire to rebalance toward Asia. Keeping the BSR a US priority will require sustained attention from Congress. Legislation recently passed by Congress provides reason for cautious optimism because it requires the White House to produce a long-term, inter-agency strategy for the BSR. Such strategies, especially those that lay out clear objectives and dedicate specific resources to an issue, are key to sustaining policy momentum as US presidential administrations change.

6. NATO and Black Sea Security

   S. Neil MacFarlane

   Abstract

   During the Cold War, NATO was not a significant player in the Black Sea region. After 1991, NATO broadened its mission, reducing its emphasis on defence and deterrence and focusing on non-traditional security challenges. Eastward enlargement brought in two new Black Sea members. Russia’s attacks on Georgia (2008) and Ukraine (2014) began a return of NATO strategy to its traditional hard-security mission. Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine accelerated this trend, with new command structures and force complements committed to the Black Sea littoral, along with substantial member-state financial and military support to Ukraine. NATO has become a major institutional actor in the Black Sea region, providing forces in being as well as coordination of member state postures. Whether this can be sustained depends on a number of factors, notably the domestic politics of member states, the strength of the near consensus on the need to deter and defend against Russian aggression, the evolution of Russian policy, and the reconstruction of European NATO forces and the defence industrial base.

7. China as a Black Sea Actor: An Alternate Route

   Niklas Swanstrom

   Abstract

   China's international role has expanded rapidly in the last decades, and the Greater Central Asian region, Europe and the Middle East, to which the Black Sea region (BSR) connects, are no exceptions. That said, the region is only a part of a much larger scheme connecting China to Europe and the Middle East through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Following the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the BSR has become a hub for transit trade to and from China. Still, the region has yet to be a priority for China despite some significant investments. The Chinese leadership has attempted to diversify the routes for transit trade from Europe and the Middle East without replacing Russia as its main route, ensuring that China relies on more than one actor for overland transit. This trend became particularly essential with the expansion of the BRI, the congestion of maritime routes and Russia's Northern Route, and, most recently, the isolation of Russia from Europe after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This chapter analyses how China has engaged the Black Sea region, traditionally seen as Russia’s backyard or even a part of Russia by Beijing. The focus is on how it is slowly becoming more crucial in China's attempts to reach Europe and the Middle East, regions of more commercial and geopolitical interest, and to balance the U.S. and, to a lesser degree, the EU. It also attempts to give recommendations on what Europe should do to counter a primarily negative Chinese presence in the region and engage where it is beneficial.

8. Russia and the Black Sea Region: Governance, Geopolitics, Securitisation

   Andrey Makarychev

   Abstract

   This chapter distinguishes between three logics constitutive for Russian policies in the Black Sea region: (a) governance that prevailed in the 1990s and was a core component in Russia’s search for much-needed international socialisation, (b) an alternative logic of practical geopolitics that approached the BSR as one of the spaces where Russia asserts itself as a regional hegemon and as a great power and (c) the security logic with the ensuing securitisation of other states’ policies in the BSR as an alleged challenge and threat to Russian interests, followed by Russia’s force projection in the region. The author argues that Russia’s policies were vacillating between governance with its emphasis on managerial and administrative technicalities, geopolitics of “big spaces” and military force-based security. Russia has ultimately moved away from the governance paradigm that implied Russia’s readiness to play by the established and mutually beneficial normative rules toward Russia’s self-assertion of its exceptional role and status in the BSR, ultimately conducive to the military intervention against Ukraine.

9. The UK and the Black Sea Region: Moving from the Periphery to Centre-Stage

   Tracey German

   Abstract

   The UK has long-running strategic interests in the Black Sea region, connected to its wider international interests. However, until 2022, the region was not central to either UK interests or its views on international security and stability; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine clarified the criticality of the region for both UK and global stability, encompassing a wide range of risks and threats, from military attacks to great power competition, human rights, climate change and economic fragility. This chapter examines the UK’s changing approach to the region, which has become a key area of UK policy interest. It argues that the UK’s approach remains too reactive, responding to events in the short term rather than pursuing a well-thought-through, long-term strategy.

10. Turkey’s Black Sea Policies (1991–2023) and Changing Regional Security Since the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

    Mustafa Aydın

    Abstract

    This chapter deals with the historical context and evolving dynamics of Turkey’s security policies in the Black Sea region. It discusses Turkey’s efforts to promote regional cooperation as a tool to contain Russia and preserve the regional balance of power, as well as its responses to challenges, including Russia’s recent aggression and further Western involvement. The chapter also addresses the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 on Turkey’s Black Sea policies, arguing that Turkey aims to balance its relationships with Russia and other regional actors while seeking to maintain stability and security in the Black Sea region.

11. Black Sea as a Battlefield: Ukraine’s Perspectives and Strategies in the Region

    Maryna Vorotnyuk

    Abstract

    The area encompassing the Black and Azov Seas holds immense strategic importance for Ukraine’s national interests. Since 2014, it has been a site of conflict for Ukraine due to Russia’s occupation and militarisation of Crimea, creeping occupation of the Sea of Azov and denial strategy in the Black Sea. This area has become an actual battlefield with Russia’s reinvasion in 2022. Ukraine has effectively employed asymmetric tactics in response to Russia’s offensive in the Black Sea. This strategy has compelled the Russian Navy to withdraw to the eastern part of the Black Sea, enabling Ukraine to thwart Russia’s maritime blockade and resume seaborne exports via its own transportation corridor. This chapter discusses Ukraine’s perspective on the Azov and Black Seas as a strategic space for its political, economic, security and energy interests. Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and 2022 full-scale invasion have transformed the Black Sea from a zone of opportunities to a source of military threat and insecurity. Russia’s control of the Sea of Azov and dominance in the Black Sea hinder Ukraine’s ability to advance its broad interests in the region.

12. Russia’s War Against Ukraine: Its Impact on Romania’s Black Sea Policy

    Iulia-Sabina Joja

    Abstract

    Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has, for the first time, catapulted the Black Sea region to the forefront of international security. For the foreign policy community in Bucharest, however, the Black Sea region has been the number one security concern for decades. This chapter explores Romania’s Black Sea policy’s development prior to and in the context of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Since becoming a member of NATO and the EU, Bucharest’s bipartisan number one strategic aim for the region has been to “Westernise” the Black Sea. With this aim in mind, Romania has lobbied its most important strategic partner, the US and its European allies, for greater investment in Black Sea security. Romania has been a staunch supporter of Moldova’s integration into the EU and Ukraine’s and Georgia’s accession to both the EU and NATO. Despite the fact that there have been a number of laudable initiatives and proposals on deepening Black Sea security, we still lack an integrated, fully aligned and compelling vision and strategy. Russian aggression has drawn our attention. No matter how the ongoing Ukraine war ends, Russian foreign policy is seen from the region as a threat that is likely to persist in the years ahead.

13. Bulgaria Adapted to the Black Sea Security Challenges

    Valeri Ratchev

    Abstract

    Bulgaria had started to recover from a decade-long political downfall characterised by a deepening democratic deficit, strategic corruption and blatant national populism. Russian propaganda and local proxies exploited the country’s vulnerability, strengthening the Kremlin’s geopolitical influence. The war in Ukraine revealed a hazardous scenario of hybrid threats. The situation has shown improvement after the prompt actions taken by the Kiril Petkov and Nikolai Denkov governments. Bulgaria provides Ukraine with substantial weapons and ammunition and strengthens the national and allied capabilities. The government holds the potential to reinstate Bulgaria’s position in the Euroatlantic mainstream and contribute to removing the Russian war threat.

14. Moldova Develops a Black Sea Focus

    Vlad Lupan

    Abstract

    The Republic of Moldova has paid limited attention to the Black Sea region for decades. After Russia’s reinvasion of Ukraine in 2022, the country focused its attention on that region, long after the aggression began in 2014. This chapter delves into Moldova’s historical, economic, political and international manoeuvring related to the Black Sea region. This analysis draws from new and old government documents, polls, expert studies and reporting from credible media outlets. Moldova’s lack of focus on certain issues can be attributed to factors such as its inward focus, sluggish economic development, corruption, ineffective governance, lack of civil service training, Russian pressures and limited debate about critical security and trade matters. The war in Ukraine and support from external partners encouraged Moldova to re-evaluate its approach to the Black Sea region in 2023 and address some policy shortcomings. It was granted EU candidate status in 2022 and its port with access to the Black Sea at Giurgiulești became indispensable for Ukrainian export and import flows.

15. Navigating Uncertainty: Georgia’s Black Sea Strategy in a New Environment

    Kornely Kakachia

    Abstract

    Situated between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea, Georgia holds strategic significance as a natural bridge between Europe and Asia. Recent events, notably Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have added complexity to the security landscape in the Black Sea region, adding both compromise and promise to the regional order. This chapter analyses how the ongoing war has affected Georgia’s security and its role as a regional connectivity hub. It critically examines Georgia’s strategies in the Black Sea and its intricate relationship with Russia and the West. It delves into Georgian and regional scenarios, emphasising the need for heightened Western engagement to foster peace and stability.

16. Comprehensive Security in the Wider Black Sea Region: The Connection with the South Caucasus and the Caspian Sea

    Stefan Meister

    Abstract

    With the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020 and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the regional security order in the wider Black Sea region is shifting. While Russia is losing its role as the regional hegemon, its interests toward the region are changing with regard to increasing trade and transit. Additionally, we observe growing competition among Turkey, Azerbaijan, Iran, Russia and the EU about the future of regional security order. Since there is no longer a regional hegemon, transactionalism and the “power of the strong” create a more unstable environment. That will undermine the very idea of “security through connectivity”, augmenting disorder and disruption in the wider Black Sea region.

17. Conclusions

    Kornely Kakachia, Stephan Malerius, Stefan Meister

    Abstract

    Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is redefining the regional order in the Black Sea region, altering its geopolitical identity and producing profound implications for global and especially European security dynamics. The conflict is reshaping relations between the states within the wider Black Sea area, significantly transforming European and post-Soviet connections.