Skip to main content
Erschienen in: Mathematics and Financial Economics 3/2022

13.04.2022

Semi-analytical solution for consumption and investment problem under quadratic security market model with inflation risk

verfasst von: Bolorsuvd Batbold, Kentaro Kikuchi, Koji Kusuda

Erschienen in: Mathematics and Financial Economics | Ausgabe 3/2022

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

There exists strong empirical evidence that all inflation rates, interest rates, market price of risk, and return volatilities of assets are stochastic, which is now a stylized fact. However, to the best of our knowledge, existing models providing solutions to consumption–investment problems do not consider all of the aforementioned stochastic processes. We consider a consumption–investment problem for a long-term investor with constant relative risk aversion utility under a quadratic security market model in which all of the processes are stochastic. We solve a nonhomogeneous linear partial differential equation for the indirect utility function and derive a semi-analytical solution. This study obtains an optimal portfolio decomposed into myopic demand, intertemporal hedging demand, and “inflation hedging demand,” and presents that all three types of demand are nonlinear functions of the state vector. Our numerical analysis presents the nonlinearity and significance of the market timing effect. The cause of this result lies mainly with inflation hedging demand in addition to myopic demand. This result highlights the importance of the market timing effect and inflation hedging demand.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Anhänge
Nur mit Berechtigung zugänglich
Fußnoten
1
It is evident that inflation rates and interest rates are stochastic and mean-reverting. Campbell and Shiller [16], Fama and French [22], and Poterba and Summers [33] present that risk premiums of stocks are stochastic and mean-reverting, and Bollerslev, Chou, and Kroner [7] and Campbell, Lo, and MacKinlay [15] show that return volatilities of stocks are stochastic and mean-reverting.
 
2
Only when the coefficient of relative risk aversion is one, the nonhomogeneous term vanishes and an analytical solution can be derived. However, the results of the empirical analysis show that the coefficient of relative risk aversion exceeds one.
 
3
Note that inflation hedging demand does not appear in their optimal portfolio choice, because the volatility of inflation is assumed to be zero in their model.
 
4
Such a canonical form is proposed by Dai and Singleton [21] in affine models and adopted by Leippold and Wu [28] and Ahn et al. [1] in quadratic models.
 
5
Defaultable bonds can also be included into our security market model. In that case, we would include defaultable bond prices based on the quadratic modeling of intensity by Chen, Filipović, and Poor [20] to retain the consistency with our model. However, we exclude defaultable bonds from our investment portfolio to avoid complexity.
 
6
Condition (4) ensures that the instantaneous nominal risk-free rate is non-negative.
 
7
Condition (10) ensures that the dividend rate is non-negative.
 
8
Eq. (29) is a Riccati algebraic equation since \( \mathscr {R} - \varDelta _j \) is positive semidefinite. Kikuchi [26] gives a sufficient condition for the existence and uniqueness of the solution to this equation.
 
9
Batbold, Kikuchi, and Kusuda [5, 6] work on the consumption–investment problem under Epstein-Zin utility and homothetic robust utility, respectively, and derive such nonlinear PDEs.
 
10
These spot rate data are available on the FRB website. They are computed based on the estimation method by Gürkaynak, Sack, and Wright [23].
 
11
These TIPS real spot rate data are available on the FRB website. They are computed based on the estimation method by Gürkaynak, Sack, and Wright [24].
 
12
This data is available on Yahoo! Finance.
 
13
See the proof for Theorem 5.2 in Arimoto [3].
 
Literatur
1.
Zurück zum Zitat Ahn, D.-H., Dittmar, R.F., Gallant, A.R.: Quadratic term structure models: theory and evidence. Rev. Financ. Stud. 15, 243–288 (2002)CrossRef Ahn, D.-H., Dittmar, R.F., Gallant, A.R.: Quadratic term structure models: theory and evidence. Rev. Financ. Stud. 15, 243–288 (2002)CrossRef
2.
Zurück zum Zitat Ang, A., Bekaert, G.: International asset allocation with regime shifts. Rev. Financ. Stud. 15, 1137–1187 (2002)CrossRef Ang, A., Bekaert, G.: International asset allocation with regime shifts. Rev. Financ. Stud. 15, 1137–1187 (2002)CrossRef
3.
Zurück zum Zitat Arimoto, S.: Mathematical Science of System and Control (in Japanese). Iwanami Shoten, Tokyo (1993) Arimoto, S.: Mathematical Science of System and Control (in Japanese). Iwanami Shoten, Tokyo (1993)
4.
Zurück zum Zitat Batbold, B., Kikuchi, K., Kusuda, K.: A semi-analytical solution to finite-time optimization problem of long-term security investment for consumer with CRRA utility (in Japanese). JARIP J. 11, 1–23 (2019a) Batbold, B., Kikuchi, K., Kusuda, K.: A semi-analytical solution to finite-time optimization problem of long-term security investment for consumer with CRRA utility (in Japanese). JARIP J. 11, 1–23 (2019a)
5.
Zurück zum Zitat Batbold, B., Kikuchi, K., Kusuda, K.: Approximate analytical solution to consumption and long-term security investment optimization problem with Epstein-Zin utility (in Japanese). Trans. Oper. Res. Soc. Jpn. 62, 23–53 (2019b)CrossRef Batbold, B., Kikuchi, K., Kusuda, K.: Approximate analytical solution to consumption and long-term security investment optimization problem with Epstein-Zin utility (in Japanese). Trans. Oper. Res. Soc. Jpn. 62, 23–53 (2019b)CrossRef
6.
Zurück zum Zitat Batbold, B., Kikuchi, K., Kusuda, K.: Approximate analytical solution to consumption and long-term security investment optimization problem with homothetic robust utility (in Japanese). Trans. Oper. Res. Soc. Jpn. 62, 71–89 (2019c)CrossRef Batbold, B., Kikuchi, K., Kusuda, K.: Approximate analytical solution to consumption and long-term security investment optimization problem with homothetic robust utility (in Japanese). Trans. Oper. Res. Soc. Jpn. 62, 71–89 (2019c)CrossRef
7.
Zurück zum Zitat Bollerslev, T., Chou, R.Y., Kroner, K.F.: ARCH modeling in finance: a review of the theory and empirical evidence. J. Econ. 52, 5–59 (1992)CrossRef Bollerslev, T., Chou, R.Y., Kroner, K.F.: ARCH modeling in finance: a review of the theory and empirical evidence. J. Econ. 52, 5–59 (1992)CrossRef
8.
Zurück zum Zitat Brandt, M.W.: Estimating portfolio and consumption choice: a conditional Euler equations approach. J. Financ. 54, 1609–1645 (1999)CrossRef Brandt, M.W.: Estimating portfolio and consumption choice: a conditional Euler equations approach. J. Financ. 54, 1609–1645 (1999)CrossRef
9.
Zurück zum Zitat Brennan, M.J.: The role of learning in dynamic portfolio decisions. Rev. Financ. 1, 295–306 (1998)CrossRef Brennan, M.J.: The role of learning in dynamic portfolio decisions. Rev. Financ. 1, 295–306 (1998)CrossRef
10.
Zurück zum Zitat Brennan, M.J., Schwartz, E.S., Lagnado, R.: Strategic asset allocation. J. Econ. Dyn. Control 21, 1377–1403 (1997)MathSciNetCrossRef Brennan, M.J., Schwartz, E.S., Lagnado, R.: Strategic asset allocation. J. Econ. Dyn. Control 21, 1377–1403 (1997)MathSciNetCrossRef
11.
Zurück zum Zitat Brennan, M.J., Xia, Y.: Stochastic interest rates and the bond-stock mix. Rev. Financ. 4, 197–210 (2000)CrossRef Brennan, M.J., Xia, Y.: Stochastic interest rates and the bond-stock mix. Rev. Financ. 4, 197–210 (2000)CrossRef
12.
Zurück zum Zitat Brennan, M.J., Xia, Y.: Assessing asset pricing anomalies. Rev. Financ. Stud. 14, 905–942 (2001)CrossRef Brennan, M.J., Xia, Y.: Assessing asset pricing anomalies. Rev. Financ. Stud. 14, 905–942 (2001)CrossRef
13.
Zurück zum Zitat Brennan, M.J., Xia, Y.: Dynamic asset allocation under inflation. J. Financ. 57, 1201–1238 (2002)CrossRef Brennan, M.J., Xia, Y.: Dynamic asset allocation under inflation. J. Financ. 57, 1201–1238 (2002)CrossRef
14.
Zurück zum Zitat Brinson, G.P., Hood, L.R., Beebower, G.L.: Determinants of portfolio performance. Financ. Anal. J. 42, 39–44 (1986)CrossRef Brinson, G.P., Hood, L.R., Beebower, G.L.: Determinants of portfolio performance. Financ. Anal. J. 42, 39–44 (1986)CrossRef
15.
Zurück zum Zitat Campbell, J.Y., Lo, A.W., MacKinlay, A.C.: The Econometrics of Financial Markets. Princeton University Press, Princeton (1997)CrossRef Campbell, J.Y., Lo, A.W., MacKinlay, A.C.: The Econometrics of Financial Markets. Princeton University Press, Princeton (1997)CrossRef
16.
Zurück zum Zitat Campbell, J.Y., Shiller, R.J.: The dividend-price ratio and expectations of future dividends and discount factors. Rev. Financ. Stud. 1, 195–228 (1988)CrossRef Campbell, J.Y., Shiller, R.J.: The dividend-price ratio and expectations of future dividends and discount factors. Rev. Financ. Stud. 1, 195–228 (1988)CrossRef
17.
Zurück zum Zitat Campbell, J.Y., Viceira, L.M.: Consumption and portfolio decisions when expected returns are time varying. Q. J. Econ. 114, 433–495 (1999)CrossRef Campbell, J.Y., Viceira, L.M.: Consumption and portfolio decisions when expected returns are time varying. Q. J. Econ. 114, 433–495 (1999)CrossRef
18.
Zurück zum Zitat Campbell, J.Y., Viceira, L.M.: Who should buy long-term bonds? Am. Econ. Rev. 91, 99–127 (2001)CrossRef Campbell, J.Y., Viceira, L.M.: Who should buy long-term bonds? Am. Econ. Rev. 91, 99–127 (2001)CrossRef
19.
Zurück zum Zitat Campbell, J.Y., Viceira, L.M.: Strategic Asset Allocation. Oxford University Press, New York (2002)CrossRef Campbell, J.Y., Viceira, L.M.: Strategic Asset Allocation. Oxford University Press, New York (2002)CrossRef
20.
Zurück zum Zitat Chen, L., Filipović, D., Poor, V.H.: Quadratic term structure models for risk-free and defaultable rates. Math. Financ. 14, 515–536 (2004)MathSciNetCrossRef Chen, L., Filipović, D., Poor, V.H.: Quadratic term structure models for risk-free and defaultable rates. Math. Financ. 14, 515–536 (2004)MathSciNetCrossRef
21.
Zurück zum Zitat Dai, Q., Singleton, K.J.: Specification analysis of affine term structure models. J. Financ. 55, 1943–1978 (2000)CrossRef Dai, Q., Singleton, K.J.: Specification analysis of affine term structure models. J. Financ. 55, 1943–1978 (2000)CrossRef
22.
Zurück zum Zitat Fama, E.F., French, K.R.: Permanent and temporary components of stock prices. J. Polit. Econ. 96, 246–273 (1988)CrossRef Fama, E.F., French, K.R.: Permanent and temporary components of stock prices. J. Polit. Econ. 96, 246–273 (1988)CrossRef
23.
Zurück zum Zitat Gürkaynak, R.S., Sack, B., Wright, J.H.: The U.S. treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present. J. Monetary Econ. 54, 2291–2304 (2007)CrossRef Gürkaynak, R.S., Sack, B., Wright, J.H.: The U.S. treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present. J. Monetary Econ. 54, 2291–2304 (2007)CrossRef
24.
Zurück zum Zitat Gürkaynak, R.S., Sack, B., Wright, J.H.: The TIPS yield curve and inflation compensation. Amer. Econ. J.: Macroecon. 2, 70–92 (2010) Gürkaynak, R.S., Sack, B., Wright, J.H.: The TIPS yield curve and inflation compensation. Amer. Econ. J.: Macroecon. 2, 70–92 (2010)
25.
Zurück zum Zitat Julier, S.J., Uhlmann, J.K., Durrant-Whyte, H.F.: A new method for the nonlinear transformation of means and covariances in filters and estimators. IEEE Trans. Automat. Control 45, 477–482 (2000)MathSciNetCrossRef Julier, S.J., Uhlmann, J.K., Durrant-Whyte, H.F.: A new method for the nonlinear transformation of means and covariances in filters and estimators. IEEE Trans. Automat. Control 45, 477–482 (2000)MathSciNetCrossRef
26.
Zurück zum Zitat Kikuchi, K.: A global joint pricing model of stocks and bonds based on the quadratic Gaussian approach. CRR Discussion paper B-18, Shiga University (2019) Kikuchi, K.: A global joint pricing model of stocks and bonds based on the quadratic Gaussian approach. CRR Discussion paper B-18, Shiga University (2019)
27.
Zurück zum Zitat Kim, T.S., Omberg, E.: Dynamic nonmyopic portfolio behavior. Rev. Financ. Stud. 9, 141–161 (1996)CrossRef Kim, T.S., Omberg, E.: Dynamic nonmyopic portfolio behavior. Rev. Financ. Stud. 9, 141–161 (1996)CrossRef
28.
Zurück zum Zitat Leippold, M., Wu, L.: Asset pricing under the quadratic class. J. Financ. Quant. Anal. 37, 271–295 (2002)CrossRef Leippold, M., Wu, L.: Asset pricing under the quadratic class. J. Financ. Quant. Anal. 37, 271–295 (2002)CrossRef
29.
Zurück zum Zitat Liu, J.: Portfolio selection in stochastic environments. Rev. Financ. Stud. 20, 1–39 (2007)CrossRef Liu, J.: Portfolio selection in stochastic environments. Rev. Financ. Stud. 20, 1–39 (2007)CrossRef
30.
Zurück zum Zitat Maenhout, P.J.: Robust portfolio rules and asset pricing. Rev Financ. Stud. 17, 951–983 (2004)CrossRef Maenhout, P.J.: Robust portfolio rules and asset pricing. Rev Financ. Stud. 17, 951–983 (2004)CrossRef
31.
Zurück zum Zitat Merton, R.C.: Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model. J. Econ. Theory 3, 373–413 (1971)MathSciNetCrossRef Merton, R.C.: Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model. J. Econ. Theory 3, 373–413 (1971)MathSciNetCrossRef
32.
Zurück zum Zitat Munk, C.: Portfolio and consumption choice with stochastic investment opportunities and habit formation in preferences. J. Econ. Dynam. Control 32, 3560–3589 (2008)MathSciNetCrossRef Munk, C.: Portfolio and consumption choice with stochastic investment opportunities and habit formation in preferences. J. Econ. Dynam. Control 32, 3560–3589 (2008)MathSciNetCrossRef
33.
Zurück zum Zitat Poterba, J.M., Summers, L.H.: Mean reversion in stock returns: evidence and implications. J. Financ. Econ. 22, 27–59 (1988)CrossRef Poterba, J.M., Summers, L.H.: Mean reversion in stock returns: evidence and implications. J. Financ. Econ. 22, 27–59 (1988)CrossRef
34.
Zurück zum Zitat Ristic, B., Arulampalam, S., Gordon, N.: Beyond the Kalman Filter - Particle Filters for Tracking Applications. Arteck House, Boston (2004)MATH Ristic, B., Arulampalam, S., Gordon, N.: Beyond the Kalman Filter - Particle Filters for Tracking Applications. Arteck House, Boston (2004)MATH
35.
Zurück zum Zitat Sangvinatsos, A., Wachter, J.A.: Does the failure of the expectations hypothesis matter for long-term investors? J. Financ. 60, 179–230 (2005)CrossRef Sangvinatsos, A., Wachter, J.A.: Does the failure of the expectations hypothesis matter for long-term investors? J. Financ. 60, 179–230 (2005)CrossRef
36.
Metadaten
Titel
Semi-analytical solution for consumption and investment problem under quadratic security market model with inflation risk
verfasst von
Bolorsuvd Batbold
Kentaro Kikuchi
Koji Kusuda
Publikationsdatum
13.04.2022
Verlag
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Erschienen in
Mathematics and Financial Economics / Ausgabe 3/2022
Print ISSN: 1862-9679
Elektronische ISSN: 1862-9660
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11579-022-00316-6

Weitere Artikel der Ausgabe 3/2022

Mathematics and Financial Economics 3/2022 Zur Ausgabe