Shale Gas: Ecology, Politics, Economy

The idea of shale gas production has appeared nearly two centuries ago. But only in the recent decades, the technologies of the shale gas extraction were developed which permit the commercial scale of shale gas production; thus, it became possible to speak about the “shale revolution.” The pioneer in this field was the USA which achieved considerable success here. At the same time, other countries that launched the shale gas production project have not been as successful as the USA so far. Regardless of this fact, the shale gas production affected significantly the arrangement of forces in the global gas market forcing many countries to take into consideration this factor in evolving their energy strategies.

The history of shale gas production goes back more than two centuries. The production of this hydrocarbon resource was pioneered by the USA that accumulated considerable experience in development of the shale gas plays. The shale gas play development pushed further the development of new technologies that ensured considerable increase of this hydrocarbon resource production, thus, affecting the situation in the global gas market.

At present there are no accurate estimates of the shale gas reserves in the world as we have no so far reliable techniques to determine the size of shales entrapping shale gas. In the recent decades, some additional geological surveys were conducted which provided new data about shale gas reserves in different world regions. However, all available forecasts may be treated as tentative as they give only potential volumes of shale gas that could be extracted by applying available technologies.

The interest to assessing the shale gas resources in the USA has increased at the turn of the twentieth to twenty-first centuries. The success of the US oil and gas companies in commercial scale production spurred the efforts on verification of the data about the available shale gas resources. The shale gas production has created a surge in development of production base and evolvement of new technologies, making the USA the leader in the gas industry. With considerable shale gas reserves, the USA may claim to secure the leading positions and to influence significantly the formation of the world gas market.

The history of the commercial shale gas production in Europe is not long. But still the issue of shale gas production is in the focus of attention in many European countries. On the one hand, this is connected with the tougher competition among the countries exporting natural gas and, on the other hand, with the endeavors of many gas-importing countries to diversify the sources of hydrocarbons and at the same time to purchase them at a lower price.

The European countries started focusing more attention on the shale gas in the late twenty-first century when the first data on shale gas production came from the USA. Initially, many European countries found that they had no accurate data about the shale gas reserves and lacked adequate infrastructure, professional personnel, and technologies. In many European countries, the prospects of shale gas production raised serious concerns, especially among ecologists, due to its negative impact on the natural environment.

The problem of the use of available reserves of shale gas in Germany is linked, above all, with the domestic gas prices and, significantly, with the security of energy supply. According to the experts of Wintershall, the leading gas supplier to the domestic market, natural gas has a crucial significance for energy supply of Germany and Europe. Company’s CEO Rainer Seele said in April 2013 that the German industry was facing hard times and that it had itself created this problem (Nikiforov, Battle for gas. NG-Energia, 2013). It is connected with the rising energy prices, which is caused by the country’s energy policy reform. Nevertheless, the prices are falling throughout the world both in the relative and absolute indicators. Gas prices in the USA are currently three times lower than in Germany. The Wintershall head believes that the fact that energy prices also affect competitiveness is too often neglected.

Germany’s concern is caused, first of all, by the situation in the sphere of gas supply to the country’s industry. Germany’s energy strategy provides for a nuclear phase-out and a quick transition to renewable energy sources. This political decision was brought to the forefront after the accident at Japan’s Fukushima nuclear power plant in 2011 and supported by the majority of the voting public in Germany. Gas, as the most environmentally friendly of non-renewable energy resources, should play an important role during the transitional period, that is, before the use of alternative energy sources becomes predominant.

One of the first countries in Europe that focused attention on the shale gas production is Poland that, according to preliminary estimates, possesses considerable shale gas reserves. The interest to assessing the shale gas reserves in this country has grown after commercial production of this hydrocarbon in the USA. The interest of Poland to development of shale plays was still greater if to take into consideration that this country was seeking to alleviate its dependence on the Russian gas.

Recoverable amount of the already discovered and even prospective unconventional hydrocarbons in Hungary supposedly exceeds 1,500 million tons of oil equivalent, but according to modest estimates, the 30-year perspective of the recoverable amount can reach only 100 million tons by current available technology. The unconventional hydrocarbon extraction is mostly the production of tight gas, but there is a great chance of unconventional shale gas and shale oil exploration and extraction as well. Nevertheless, in Hungary the hydraulic fracturing is a precondition for the exploitation of unconventional hydrocarbon resources.

The environmental consideration of hydraulic fracturing is contradictory; therefore, its regulation and official licensing are sources of conflicts not only in Hungary but all over in Europe. We show a case study of successfully fractured tight sand exploitation in Derecske Trough (E Hungary) in order to emphasise the importance of the analyses of local circumstances and the regulatory steps determined based on those. The study focuses on the two most significant risks specific to fracturing, namely, the effect of hydraulic fracturing on groundwater and the risk of induced earthquake based on a 3D geological model of the area interpreting the real geological conditions. The main conclusions are that (1) the spatial extension of induced fractures is extremely small in the prevailing continuously subsiding geodynamic conditions; and (2) it is almost excluded that a fracturing operation would release so much energy that would cause the development of a new, significant permeable fault (or the reactivation of an existing one). (3) There is at least 2,000 m mostly impermeable and ductile sedimentary succession between the uppermost fractured zone and the bottom of the deepest thermal aquifer. It concludes that (4) the risk of a possible pollution spreading along the communication between formations does not exist and (5) the dissipation capability of young sedimentary formations is able to absorb the energy released by induced seismicity, which in case of the most disadvantageous technical and tectonic circumstances can trigger most likely earthquakes with a magnitude of ~1.8 in Hungary. Such an activity practically cannot be perceived by humans on the surface.

Romania has a quite large inventory of unconventional continuous plays in the Paleozoic, Mesozoic, and Cenozoic periods mainly in the foreland and back-arc basins. The assessing of units evaluated so far, following the EIA and USGS methodology is underway but first results indicate technically recoverable resources of 1,000 billion m³ of gas and 500 million bbl of oil. They show a tangible potential for investors once a specific legal framework is in place. The geological challenges for evaluating this category of resources are rather important because of the lack of novel information resulting from modern exploration and the classification regime of older one. The political hurdles are related to incomplete regulations, absence of community co-involvement, and the lack of any policy promoting the development of unconventional resources. The environmental debate has been very present in Romania and shall hopefully be solved with an unceasing consultation with the public society once new, transparent rules are set up.

On the base of comprehensive analyses of geological structure and sedimentary basins of Bulgaria, six organic-enrich dark-shale-dominated intervals have been identified. Besides Silurian and Etropole shales (earlier determined), another four newly defined shale intervals are Lower Carboniferous, Lower Jurassic, Oligocene and Oligocene–Middle Miocene. The optimum area for each of them is outlined. The shale gas estimate is made by up-to-date methodology with consideration of the determined critical parameters. From the estimated six targets, only the Lower Carboniferous shales (in the pointed western zone) and both Jurassic shaly intervals may present moderate shale gas interest.

No doubts that the next decade of international political processes will be influenced by the questions of energy resources. Together with climate changes, water, and oil prices, the issue of energy security, diversification, and the further development of new forms of its production will dictate the agenda of the most of the countries in the world. That’s why more information, more public awareness on this topic will be helpful to understand not only the trends but can engage in broader discussions.

If these questions will remain an exclusive topic for business community and the government, without the broader implications of interested people, there is a growing risk of misunderstanding, disinformation, and manipulation. The appearance of more articles, books, and various materials on alternative fuels will help this dialog and public debate.

The shale gas is a subject very little known in Eastern Europe. Except for a limited modest number of articles, there is no information about it. Having in mind the growing importance of energy subjects for the political agenda of Russia-EU relations, the transit infrastructure in Eastern Europe, the EU Energy Treaty, this publication can be an additional helpful tool to understand the evolving trends related to energy security and the role of the shale gas in this context.

The article analyzes the role of shale gas in the context of energy policy and security of Ukraine at the present stage. The author emphasizes general trends of the global natural gas market, as well as the prospects for shale gas production in Ukraine. Foreign policy dilemmas, challenges, achievements, and prospects in the gas production industry in Ukraine are characterized. Particular attention is paid to the political, diplomatic, and international factors of the issue researched, as well as to the environmental factor that both contributes and prevents the extraction of shale gas in present conditions on the territory of Ukraine.

The interest to the shale gas in Russia has grown after the USA increased significantly the production of this hydrocarbon. However, this interest does not go beyond discussions at the expert level, and mention of this issue in some documents and declarations of politicians. No haste to organize the industrial shale gas production can be attributed to the lack of accurate data on the shale gas reserves in the territory of Russia, high production costs, and high environmental risks. And one more factor – lack of technologies.

The article considers the primary evaluation of the shale gas resource potential in Kazakhstan and outlines the most problematic issues for the large-scale shale gas production across the state. The authors pay special attention to the national strategy of the Kazakhstan government in the sphere of the unconventional energy production and define the likely technological and environmental problems for the shale gas extraction. It is also stressed in this chapter that application of the fracking technologies could cause both positive and negative effects on the economy of Kazakhstan. Therefore, further steps in this direction should be based on the meaningful and comprehensive geological data regarding the shale gas potential.

The shale gas production in the USA was not missed in China for which the issues of hydrocarbon export and development of own resources are always in the focus of attention of its leadership. Preliminary investigations conducted in China have revealed considerable reserves of shale gas. The great attention to this hydrocarbon resource was supported by the special decision of the Chinese authorities that in 2011 officially referred the shale gas to individual mineral resources. In 2011–2015, energetic efforts were made in China to organize the shale gas production in commercial scales, thus, to reduce its dependence on gas import from Central Asia and other world regions.

The rapid increase of the shale gas production in the USA has influenced significantly the global energy market. Primarily, this is connected with a sharp decrease of natural gas import by the USA. Moreover, the scenarios of the US shale gas supply to the European market that turned out to be under strong impact of the “shale revolution” have been discussed actively. Other world countries possessing shale gas reserves are also planning to increase its production. Although the first results of export of the “shale revolution” have shown that quite unlikely the US experience of this area will be repeated in the next decade, but, still, with regard to the volumes of the shale gas production the global energy market is already altering notably.

The shale gas production in the USA has stirred environmental concerns in the face of the impacts arising in the course of the shale play development. Such enhanced interest of the public to this issue is connected with the opinions voiced by ecologists about the negative impacts of the shale gas production on the natural environment and human health. And the key negative factor is considered to be the hydraulic fracturing (fracking) technologies. It is thought that the hydraulic fracturing affects the geological structures, underground and surface waters, atmospheric air, soil, and land condition. Moreover, the preparatory works for construction of the required infrastructure and also the very process of shale gas production – drilling of horizontal and vertical wells, use of water resources, and storage of toxic wastes are also detrimental in this respect. All these factors have led to wider public movement against the shale gas production.

This book highlights the problems of the shale gas production that influenced greatly the situation in the global gas market. It brings into focus such issues as production technologies, environment protection, and impact of the consequences of the shale gas production on a man. The book also investigates the role of shale gas in development and implementation of foreign policy of many world countries that welcomed the possibility to organize production of this hydrocarbon in their own countries. Taking into consideration the information published by world energy research centers, the prospects of the shale gas production in different regions of the world are studied. This book seeks to integrate such issues as shale gas production, politics, technological development, and ecology. It will be of use for the specialists in the area of hydrocarbon production, international relations and foreign policy, world economics and technologies, and ecology and environment protection.