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Über dieses Buch

This book describes the development of a system dynamics-based model that can capture the future trajectories of housing energy and carbon emissions. It approaches energy and carbon emissions in the housing sector as a complex socio-technical problem involving the analysis of intrinsic interrelationships among dwellings, occupants and the environment. Based on an examination of the UK housing sector but with relevance worldwide, the book demonstrates how the systems dynamics simulation can be used as a learning laboratory regarding future trends in housing energy and carbon emissions. The authors employ a pragmatic research strategy, involving the collection of both qualitative and quantitative data to develop a model. The book enriches readers’ understanding of the complexity involved in housing energy and carbon emissions from a systems-thinking perspective. As such, it will be of interest to researchers in the fields of architectural engineering, housing studies and climate change, while also appealing to industry practitioners and policymakers specializing in housing energy.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Chapter 1. General Introduction

Abstract
This chapter of this research book provides the general introduction for the book by describing the background issues surrounding the modelling and simulation of energy consumption and carbon emissions, especially in the housing sector of the economy. The purpose and objectives of this research book are mainly to describe the use of the system dynamics method to model the housing energy and carbon emissions by focusing specifically on the UK housing stock. This chapter provides the structure of the research book, including its contributions and value.
Michael Gbolagade Oladokun, Clinton Ohis Aigbavboa

Chapter 2. Energy and Carbon Emissions in Housing

Abstract
In this chapter, issues relating to energy and carbon emissions in housing are discussed. The chapter starts by discussing issues of energy consumption in housing. This is followed by the energy policy and emissions targets issues. Following on, the chapter discusses the trends in housing energy and carbon emissions research with specific focus on the theoretical framework underpinning energy consumption and carbon emissions in housing. This includes some sociotechnical variables influencing energy and carbon emissions in housing. The chapter also reviews the literature relating to the method of modelling energy and carbon emissions in housing. This entails issues pertaining to the epistemic modelling approaches which are the top-down and bottom-up modelling techniques as well as their benefits and limitations. Additionally, the chapter reviews some notable models for energy and carbon emissions in the UK housing sector. A critique of these modelling approaches concludes the chapter.
Michael Gbolagade Oladokun, Clinton Ohis Aigbavboa

Chapter 3. The Sociotechnical Systems of Energy and Carbon Emissions in Housing

Abstract
This chapter identifies the most suitable modelling approach to conceptualise the complex sociotechnical systems of housing energy consumption and carbon emissions. Before the review of literature for modelling techniques of STS, the chapter reviews literature on the systems-based approach of scientific inquiry as the theoretical knowledge base underpinning the STS. This is mainly to give the philosophical background of STS. The chapter then conducts a literature search, and the review results reveal that the domain of application of STS has been mainly in the area of human–computer interaction studies, information technology, software engineering, engineering (general), business and management, medicine, and a host of others. This chapter of the research book also analyses the modelling techniques for STS. The chapter further probes the techniques for their capability in capturing the research problem under investigation in the book against a set of criteria.
Michael Gbolagade Oladokun, Clinton Ohis Aigbavboa

Chapter 4. The System Dynamics Modelling Method

Abstract
The system dynamics (SD) approach was used as both the methodology and tool for modelling and simulation in this book. This chapter first gives an historical overview of SD by describing how the SD approach came into being. Following on, the chapter discusses how the SD approach is grounded both in theory and philosophical foundations in terms of its epistemological and ontological underpinnings. The chapter further puts the SD in context as a multidisciplinary modelling approach and then describes the procedures for using it. Additionally, the chapter discusses the array of software under which the SD modelling and simulation can be implemented. The chapter is concluded by discussing the ways in which the SD algorithms can be developed.
Michael Gbolagade Oladokun, Clinton Ohis Aigbavboa

Chapter 5. System Dynamics Application to Housing Energy and Carbon Emissions in the UK

Abstract
The system dynamics approach has been previously used to model and simulate energy and carbon emission policy issues. As such, this chapter discusses the application of the system dynamics method to model housing energy and carbon emissions with particular reference to the UK housing sector. The chapter starts by giving details of those that participated in the model conceptualisation phase of model development. This is followed by discussing the main variables that are included in the model. Then, the chapter presents the reference modes of key variables based on historical data of those variables. In addition, the chapter presents the model structure in terms of the causal loop diagrams and stock and flow diagrams. A discussion of the variables excluded from the model concludes the chapter.
Michael Gbolagade Oladokun, Clinton Ohis Aigbavboa

Chapter 6. Simulation of Energy and Carbon Emissions in Housing

Abstract
This chapter presents the results of simulation performed for the model in this book. The simulation was based on the ‘baseline’ scenario as described in this chapter. The ‘baseline’ scenario conveys the way energy and carbon emission of the UK housing sector will evolve from the year 1970 to the year 2050. After the general assumptions about the ‘baseline’ scenario, the chapter presents the results of the key variables in the preceding modules to household energy consumption and carbon emission modules. These are key variables in the population/household module, dwelling internal heat module, occupants’ thermal comfort module, and climatic-economic-energy efficiency interaction module. Furthermore, the chapter presents and discusses the behaviour analysis of the household energy consumption module as well as that of household carbon emissions. The chapter concludes by explaining the model verification and validation conducted in order to build confidence in the outputs of the simulation.
Michael Gbolagade Oladokun, Clinton Ohis Aigbavboa

Chapter 7. Policy Analysis

Abstract
This chapter describes and discusses some policy scenarios formulated in order to illustrate the use of the model in this book. The illustrative scenarios developed demonstrate how the energy consumption and carbon emissions attributable to the UK housing stock would evolve over the years under different assumptions. The chapter explains the assumptions under the ‘efficiency’ scenario. The scenario generally considers the effects of improvements in energy efficiency measures on household energy consumption and ultimately on household carbon emissions. Also, the chapter describes the ‘behavioural change’ scenario that it tries to model the effects of occupants’ change of energy consumption behaviour on household energy consumption and carbon emissions profile. Further, the ‘economic’ scenario assumes a case of policy change by government favouring energy prices’ reduction, thereby reducing the energy bills payable by the householders and their consequences on household energy consumption and carbon emissions. Lastly, an ‘integrated’ scenario combines the assumptions in the first three scenarios and then analyses their effects on household energy consumption and carbon emissions. The discussion of the output of different scenarios for housing energy and carbon emissions concludes the chapter.
Michael Gbolagade Oladokun, Clinton Ohis Aigbavboa

Chapter 8. Conclusions and Reflections

Abstract
This chapter serves as the reflective summary of the research presented within this research book as it brings together the conclusions emanating from the insights generated by the simulation(s?) run in this book. The chapter demonstrates the value of the book for practice. This research effort has made some contributions to knowledge, and these are accordingly highlighted in this chapter. The snapshots of the research limitations and recommendations for further research conclude the chapter.
Michael Gbolagade Oladokun, Clinton Ohis Aigbavboa

Backmatter

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