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Dieses Kapitel befasst sich mit der Zukunft des multimodalen Verkehrsmanagements (MTM) in Europa bis 2050, wobei der Schwerpunkt auf Datenaustausch und Governance liegt. Es präsentiert drei gegensätzliche Szenarien, die die potenzielle Entwicklung von MTM untersuchen, jedes davon mit seinen eigenen Implikationen für die gemeinsame Nutzung von Daten, Governance und gesellschaftliche Auswirkungen. Das erste Szenario sieht ein nahtloses und optimiertes MTM-System mit verlässlicher Datenweitergabe und Einhaltung der DSGVO vor. Das zweite Szenario unterstreicht die Dominanz der Tech-Giganten bei der Bereitstellung von Daten und weckt Bedenken hinsichtlich der Privatsphäre und der Marktregulierung. Das dritte Szenario präsentiert ein nachhaltiges MTM-System, das ökologischem und sozialem Wohlergehen Priorität einräumt und Daten als Gemeinwohl verwaltet. Das Kapitel skizziert auch den Prozess der Szenarienbildung, der Literaturrezensionen, Workshops und Experteninterviews umfasste. Abschließend werden die Auswirkungen jedes einzelnen Szenarios und die laufenden Bewertungsarbeiten im Rahmen des ORCHESTRA-Projekts diskutiert.
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Diese Zusammenfassung des Fachinhalts wurde mit Hilfe von KI generiert.
Abstract
What would the advent of Multimodal Traffic Management (MTM) be like in Europe by 2050? This paper provides some answers by suggesting three contrasted sociocultural scenarios that refer to different key societal values.
Traffic management has been siloed so far with few or no communication between stakeholders (i.e. network and traffic managers, transport service providers, fleet operators, users, etc.). Yet better coordination based on Data sharing among traffic stakeholders could facilitate the future of more efficient transport from an economic and environmental point of view in line with the European policies. It would also make it easier to manage recurrent or exceptional disruptions.
Beyond the technological issues raised up by the sharing of traffic data, this paper’s main challenge is to consider the future societal contexts and values on which European society could be based in the next decades.
Based on a literature review, on practitioners’ and experts’ workshops and interviews, the paper provides three explorative scenarios addressing two questions:
How could/should data sharing and its governance be implemented?
What societal aspects and concerns should be considered when sharing data?
These explorative scenarios are thus designed to stimulate debate.
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 953618.
1 Introduction
Seamless, carbon-free and smart transport is the main objective that Europe has fixed by 2050 [3]. But the way to achieve this goal is not self-evident, given the potential lock-in features of the systems of all kinds. As an answer, the ORCHESTRA project suggests that Intelligent Transport Systems can help to reach this target by improving traffic management within each mode of transport and through their combinations. Typically, it could support door-to-door services as proposed by Mobility-as-a-Service or Physical Internet. In this context, the availability and the accessibility of traffic and transport data is a major challenge that particularly raises two questions:
How could/should data sharing and its governance be implemented?
What societal aspects and concerns should be considered when sharing data?
After outlining the founding concepts of ORCHESTRA, the paper describes the scenario-building process and presents three scenarios in a short story-telling form.
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2 Multimodal Traffic Management (MTM) Concepts
MTM is the original concept addressed by ORCHESTRA, as a meta-coordination of traffic management through different transport modes and areas. MTM relies on a multi-stakeholder and multilevel governance that define an ecosystem (MTME) made of transport, traffic and society stakeholders (Fig. 1). Among them, a Traffic Orchestrator (TO) performs optimal measures for traffic management within its Governance Area in normal situations as well as in case of disruptions. TO uses arbitration models to balance conflicts involving a trade-off between many performance criteria: transport efficiency, environment and social aspects, according to the Strategic Planning Manager’s decisions. Thus, data availability and accessibility are essential for the TOs’ performance which needs real-time data related to current and upcoming traffic, network conditions, transport operations plans, network users (vehicles, vessels, travellers, goods, etc.) with credentials confirming their user profiles. The Data Intermediary (DI), as defined in the Data governance act [5], plays a key role in the MTME even though it is not compulsory: whether international, national or local, it guarantees the respect of data confidentiality, commercial secrecy and data processing ethics.
Fig. 1.
The MTME stakeholders and the key role of Data intermediary [11]
The work carried out relies on the core assumption that the power relations between traffic stakeholders (private actors and public authorities) shape the data availability, accessibility and use. The transport system is characterised by a lot of stakeholders -Motorists, Network Managers, Transport Service Providers, individuals’ location data owners, etc., potentially gatekeepers to data. Indeed, in spite of the national and international incentives and regulatory measures, public and private structures are not always willing to share the data they hold because of ownership, security, integrity, traceability or privacy issues. So, beyond the technological issues raised up by the sharing of traffic data, data governance appears to be a main issue as well.
From the sociological perspective that founds the scenarios, data governance can be defined as “the power relations between all the actors affected by, or having an effect on, the way data is accessed, controlled, shared and used, the various sociotechnical arrangements set in place to generate value from data, and how such value is redistributed between actors” [5].
Yet, the development of explorative scenarios is a relevant way of depicting the contexts in which the MTME could occur by 2050, as they “respond to the question What can happen?” [2]. Thus, the design of the scenarios relies on different combinations of assumptions referring to different economic, political and societal contexts. These assumptions have been defined through a literature review, four workshops and several interviews, all involving various transport and data practitioners and experts. Figure 2 describes more precisely the scenarios’ building process followed step by step.
Fig. 2.
Method used to build the three exploratory sociocultural scenarios [10]
4 Three Contrasted Scenarios for the Future of MTME
The three designed explorative scenarios assume that by 2050 each mode of transport will have reached a sufficient level of digitalisation to enable an effective MTM, even if they currently do not start from the same level of development. In 2050, people, goods, vehicles and infrastructures have been completely immersed in digital data.
Given these prerequisites, the scenario 1 corresponds to a future where data sharing between stakeholders and its processing by the TOs is performed reliably and transparently at an optimum level in compliance with the RGPD, throughout Europe. The scenario 2 emphasises the strategic place that the Tech Giants could take in the MTME. The scenario 3 suggests an MTM implementation context in which the planet boundaries and the social equity issues justify all the TO’s decisions.
Scenario 1: MTM has Become Seamless and Optimised
In 2050 the European Union (EU) policies have been successful and MTM concepts have become true all over Europe. Economic growth, freedom and individual mobility have remained the society's core values. EU has built up its autonomy in terms of data storage and processing infrastructures. Data sharing has been fully compliant with the GDPR. DIs have operated as a decentralised network and have ensured the collection of data required by TOs. Compulsory certification of these DIs has trusting relationships between public and private traffic stakeholders. The proportion of protected data has been much higher than open access ones. Protected data has ensured greater territorial equity and has encouraged the provision of high-quality and resilient door-to-door transport services all over Europe.
Scenario 2: The Tech Giants have Become the Main Traffic Data Providers
In 2050 the basic trend of data technological progress observed since the early 2000s has been confirmed and amplified: The Tech Giants have owned the great majority of digital data storage and exchange infrastructures. Yet, they have been the main collectors and processors of traffic data, and DIs have guaranteed a small fraction of the data exchanged. The prevailing ideology of Big Tech companies has spread throughout Europe: a great ambition in digital technology associated with a libertarian vision of society which tends to emancipate itself from the state framework [1]. In this future, the market regulates itself and public authorities should intervene as little as possible.
Thus, the Tech Giants have become key providers of transport and traffic data as well as new services that can predict, influence and sometimes control mobility. These services have mainly been based on a continuous personal data collection from personal devices. Thus, MTM became part of the “surveillance capitalism” defined as a new form of capitalism that translates human experience into behavioural data in order to produce predictions that are then sold on the markets of future behaviour” [11].
In this context, most traffic and mobility data have remained private, only partially accessible to the public. Thus, the MTM stakeholders have had to negotiate with the Tech Giants for providing MTM with solutions, and the access to most traffic data has been subjected to a fee. So, only the richest cities have been able to develop MTM, thus reinforcing territorial inequalities. Furthermore, as data have been mainly stored outside the EU, they have not been bound by the GDPR requirements.
Scenario 3: Welcome to a Sustainable MTME
In 2050, public policies have been implemented within the framework of the political economy of frugality with reference to planetary limits [8] and social limits [6]. Thus, people’s well-being and shared prosperity have been ensured. [9]. As a result, wealth has no longer been based on the unlimited growth paradigm.
Then MTM has always been implemented in the light of Life-Cycle Analysis (LCA). DIs have collected and harmonised all the data supporting LCA and social assessments in terms of people's well-being. Particularly, TOs has operated MTM decisions that have fitted with environmental and social issues considering the costs of resources, materials, energy, space consumption, and negative externalities (Green House Gas and pollutant emissions). This is why MTM have been implemented only in places where the environmental and social assessment were positive. Furthermore, traffic and mobility data have been managed through the concept of Commons [6]: democratic values have made it possible to set up a particular governance of the DIs: the participation of stakeholders in their governance, including people from civil society, reinforces the confidence given to it as regards the security and reliability of the data and the use made of it. Yet, every citizen and company receive an annual mobility credit defined as part of a concerted process. Once the mobility credit is used up, users have to pay for all the external costs of their trips or shipments.
5 Conclusions
Of course, the future by 2050 cannot be predicted but alternative futures can. Building and studying different contrasting scenarios helps to act for or against some of them. Each of the three sociocultural scenarios depicts different MTM data governance contexts which encompass political, economic, ethical, legal and technical issues.
Scenario 1 reflects the ideal scenario from ORCHESTRA’s perspective: all the data required for an efficient MTM is actually securely exchanged via trusted third parties in compliance with the GDPR. This presupposes the full success of EU’s policies to promote Europe's digital independence, especially with regard to the Tech Giants.
Scenario 2 describes a future in which the Tech Giants have strengthened their supremacy, possessing the data infrastructures and knowledge, limiting the action of public authorities and weakening democracy. The laws of the market prevail with the risk of threatening freedom.
Scenario 3 depicts a European society that is fully aware of the planet's limits and concerned about social well-being. These values prevail over TO’s decisions that are always taken in a democratic way as data and mobility are common goods, and as everyone has been given an annual CO2-credit for mobility.
The authors assume that scenario 3 could be the only one able to help to achieve the ambitious objectives of the European Green Deal in accordance with the 2015 Paris agreements. But, the way in which these scenarios might be assessed depends on the sociocultural contexts themselves that give different weight respectively to social, environmental and economic issues. The evaluation work is continuing as part of the ORCHESTRA project, mainly in the economic and environmental fields.
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.
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