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2018 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Solar Radiation Probabilistic Forecasting

verfasst von : Mathieu David, Philippe Lauret

Erschienen in: Wind Field and Solar Radiation Characterization and Forecasting

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

In contrast to deterministic forecasts, probabilistic forecasts give additional information about the inherent uncertainty embodied in weather predictions. In the realm of solar forecasting, prediction intervals are especially important to assess risks in grid operations and to optimize the energy storages needed to ensure the supply–demand balance. Even if the development of probabilistic solar forecasts is relatively recent, the main available methods come from other fields of meteorology, particularly from the wind domain. This chapter reviews some of the methods used to generate probabilistic solar forecasts. A special emphasis is put on short term (from several hours to several days) and very short term (from several minutes to several hours) forecasts. As the verification of the quality of the probabilistic forecasts is of major interest, graphical tools like reliability diagram and rank histogram are depicted. These diagnostic tools are relevant for assessing the good calibration of the probabilistic forecasts. In addition, a quantitative score, the CRPS, is also proposed. The CRPS takes into account the different sources of uncertainties and as a proper score, the CRPS is useful to rank competing forecasting methods.

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Titel: Solar Radiation Probabilistic Forecasting
verfasst von: Mathieu David
Philippe Lauret
Verlag: Springer International Publishing
Buch: Wind Field and Solar Radiation Characterization and Forecasting
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-76875-5

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-76876-2

Copyright-Jahr: 2018
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-76876-2_9

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