Spatial Verification of Rainfall Forecasts During Tropical Cyclone ‘Phailin’

During October 2013 Bay of Bengal (BOB) tropical cyclone (TC) ‘Phailin’ hit east coast of India. This was the most intense cyclone that made landfall over India after the Odisha Super Cyclone (29 October 1999). This TC originated from a remnant cyclonic circulation from the South China Sea. It intensified into a cyclonic storm on the 9 October 2013 and moved northwestwards. It further intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm on 10 October 2013 over east central BOB. It crossed Odisha coast near Gopalpur around 2230 h IST of 12 October 2013 with a sustained maximum surface wind speed of 200–210 kmph gusting to 220 kmph. Some of its unique features included the rapid intensification of the system from 10 October to 11 October 2013 resulting in an increase of wind speed from 83 to 215 kmph. Also, at the time of landfall on 12 October, maximum sustained surface wind speed in association with the cyclone was about 215 kmph and estimated central pressure was 940 hPa with pressure drop of 66 hPa at the center compared to surroundings (RSMC, New Delhi, 2014).