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Erschienen in:

16.10.2021

Structural Change in the Investment Function

verfasst von: Russell E. Triplett, Nilufer Ozdemir, Paul M. Mason

Erschienen in: Journal of Economics and Finance | Ausgabe 1/2022

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Abstract

Investment is an important contributor to aggregate demand, and it is critical to fostering productivity and fueling innovation. Absent from the existing literature on business investment is the recognition that the determinants of investment have changed over time in fundamental ways. Using quarterly data from 1953–2016, we estimate an augmented accelerator function of U.S. business investment and present evidence of a structural change in the year 2000. Our findings suggest that while the accelerator and crowding-out effects have weakened over time, the sensitivity of investment growth to cost of capital, risk spread, cash flows, and economic policy uncertainty have increased in recent years. In light of these results, we highlight and evaluate several recent hypotheses regarding structural changes in the U.S. economy. In particular, we argue that our results are not consistent with the secular stagnation hypothesis, but are more closely connected to long-term trends in demographics, market concentration, financialization, and the inter-industry reconfiguration of firms away from traditional manufacturing.

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Fußnoten
1
The capital stock data is available only as an annual series. To construct quarterly values, we employed a linear extrapolation using the investment measure and data on annual depreciation rates.
 
2
As the main focus of this paper is the long-run equilibrium relationships among the variables, only the long-run elasticities corresponding to Eq. (8) are reported here.
 
3
We subsequently tested each subsample for additional breaks, but none reached conventional levels of statistical significance.
 
4
Although see Acemoglu and Restrepo (2017) for an opposing view.
 
5
This was the central theme of the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole meetings in 2018.
 
6
Although see Freund and Sidhu (2017) for an opposing view.
 
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Metadaten
Titel
Structural Change in the Investment Function
verfasst von
Russell E. Triplett
Nilufer Ozdemir
Paul M. Mason
Publikationsdatum
16.10.2021
Verlag
Springer US
Erschienen in
Journal of Economics and Finance / Ausgabe 1/2022
Print ISSN: 1055-0925
Elektronische ISSN: 1938-9744
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-021-09564-6

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