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2011 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

3. Structuring the Way

A New Approach on Multi-Criteria and Cost–Benefit Analysis to be Applied to Road Safety Measures

verfasst von : Klaas De Brucker, Cathy Macharis, Knut Veisten

Erschienen in: Infrastructure and Safety in a Collaborative World

Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg

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Abstract

This chapter briefly describes the basic principles of multi-criteria analysis (MCA) and cost–benefit analysis (CBA), in view of their application to the socio-economic evaluation of different scenarios for improving road safety. The specific scenarios for improving road safety by creating a more forgiving road (FOR) and self-explanatory road (SER) environment are, however, identified in subsequent chapters of this book. As regards MCA, the multi-actor MCA (or MAMCA), as well as the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), are discussed in more detail. As regard CBA, special attention is given to the definition of specific decision criteria. Special attention is also given to possible approaches to cope with lacking data on safety impacts. By the end of this chapter it should be very clear which are the different interpretations to be placed on the results of CBA and MCA, even in cases when these results are conflicting.

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Fußnoten
1
Some apply the term “social cost-benefit analysis (SCBA)”, to stress the difference with respect to financial cost-benefit analysis. However, SCBA may also be understood as a stepwise analysis, starting by a financial appraisal, then adjusting prices and/or including non-market goods to produce an economic appraisal and finally also including a social appraisal in the meaning of an assessment of distributional effects (Thirlwall 2003).
 
2
Sometimes a criterion called “profitability index” (PI) is used, defined as the ratio of NPV to implementation cost. The relationship between the PI and the BC ratio is very simple, since PI = BC ratio − 1. Also the relation between PI and NPV is very simple: when the NPV is greater than 0, then also the PI exceeds 0.
 
3
COWI is an international consultancy group based in Denmark. The abbreviation COWI stands for “Consultancy within Engineering, Environmental Science and Economics”.
 
4
It should be noted, however, that also in CBA the statement regarding the fundamental desirability of a project is a relative one, since CBA only makes it possible to compare the project with the doing-nothing alternative.
 
5
ADVISORS is the abbreviation for “Action for advanced Driver assistance and Vehicle control systems Implementation, Standardisation, Optimum use of the Road network and Safety”, an EC co-funded project of the fifth Research Framework.
 
6
In the event that the pairwise comparison matrix is completely consistent, then all eigenvalues are equal to 0, except 1, because all rows and columns of the matrix are linearly dependant (the rank of the matrix is equal to 1) in that case. The only eigenvalue different from 0 (λ max ) should then be equal to n (this is the number of rows and columns in the matrix), since the sum of all the eigenvalues in a square matrix is always equal to the “spur” of the matrix (this is the sum of the elements on its diagonal line). In case of a limited amount of inconsistency in the pairwise comparison matrix, λ max will slightly differ from n. Hence, this difference (λ max  − n) can be used as the basis for a measure of inconsistency.
 
7
A “cardinal value function” makes it possible to argue that a score of e.g. 2X is considered to be twice as good/bad as a score of X for each value of X (assuming that a natural zero point exists for this value scale). This may the case for a criterion or attribute such as “public expenditure”, for which cost estimates may be available e.g. from a CBA.
 
8
The relation between the attribute scale (z j ) and the cardinal value scale (v j ) is not necessarily a linear one. For instance, as regards income for a private person, it is generally accepted that the marginal utility of income is decreasing. A job that pays twice the salary of another job is not necessarily considered to be twice as good in terms of the criterion salary. In case the salary is low, the job with the double salary may be considered close to two times better than the other job. In case the salary is high, it may be considered e.g. only 1.5 times better.
 
9
Indeed, Forman and Selly (2001) quoting Einstein synthesize this idea very well in the following statement: “Not everything that counts can be counted and not everything that can be counted, counts”.
 
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Metadaten
Titel
Structuring the Way
verfasst von
Klaas De Brucker
Cathy Macharis
Knut Veisten
Copyright-Jahr
2011
Verlag
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-18372-0_3

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