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Über dieses Buch

This book includes an in-depth analysis of the environmental and energy security impacts of replacing the internal combustion engine vehicle with various forms of electric vehicles and replacing gasoline and diesel fuel with alternative fuels including electricity, hydrogen and biofuels. In addition to a detailed “well-to-wheels” analysis of local air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions and oil consumption for each alternative vehicle, the book estimates the market penetration potential of each fuel/vehicle combination to determine the most likely societal impact of each alternative vehicle pathway. To support the market penetration estimates, the book analyses the likely cost of each alternative vehicle in mass production and the cost of installing the necessary fuel infrastructure to support each option. The book provides sufficient detail to allow decision makers in governments and industry to choose among the alternative vehicle/fuel combinations that will lead to a truly sustainable transportation system.



Chapter 1. Introduction

Transportation dominates environmental and energy security threats to the world. Light-duty vehicles (LDVs—cars and trucks) accounted for 45.6 % of all the oil consumed by the USA in 2009 and 37.4 % of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Assuming that economic growth resumes after the 2008–2009 global recession, US vehicle sales and annual miles traveled per vehicle will most likely resume their historical upward trajectories (although probably not as steeply) which will lead to a steady increase in urban air pollution, GHG emissions, and oil consumption, unless we change the way we power our cars, trucks, buses, planes, trains, and ships. Our petroleum consumption and pollution from vehicles in the USA is exacerbated by long travel distances, minimal mass transit, and very low fuel taxes compared to the rest of the world.

C. E. (Sandy) Thomas

Chapter 2. Societal Requirements/Goals for a Sustainable Transportation System

This chapter defines our goals for a future transportation system in terms of the allowable greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, fossil fuel consumption, and local air pollution to create a sustainable transportation system.

C. E. (Sandy) Thomas

Chapter 3. Alternative Vehicle and Fuel Options

This chapter introduces the alternative vehicles and fuels analyzed in this book. We include five different electric vehicles and two conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) hybrid vehicles running on either natural gas or diesel fuel. We also analyze PHEVs running on cellulosic ethanol as a surrogate for other biofuels.

C. E. (Sandy) Thomas

Chapter 4. Alternative Vehicle Market Potential

Some alternative vehicles have limited market potential due to factors such as short range, long fueling times, vehicle size limitations, and, for all vehicles, cost which is discussed in Chap.



C. E. (Sandy) Thomas

Chapter 5. Alternative Vehicle Cost Estimates

Alternative vehicles should ideally cost no more than the conventional gasoline vehicles to speed market acceptance. While new technology vehicles will initially cost more, the goal should be to have equal or lower cost in the long term when these alternative vehicles are mass produced. This chapter summarizes a bottom-up assessment of alternative vehicle costs and also reviews two major studies of the likely mass production costs of alternative vehicles: one by Kromer and Heywood at MIT, and the other by the consulting firm McKinsey & Company.

C. E. (Sandy) Thomas

Chapter 6. Fuel Infrastructure Cost

All electric vehicles will need some type of fuel infrastructure other than the ubiquitous gasoline and diesel fuel stations. Many observers note the high cost of installing sufficient hydrogen stations to fuel FCEVs, but BEVs and PHEVs will also require new charging stations to replenish depleted batteries. While a hydrogen station may cost much more than a battery charging station, one hydrogen station may support hundreds or even thousands of FCEVs since each FCEV can be refueled in a few minutes, while one charging outlet can support at most one or two BEVs per day due to their long charging times. As a result, we show in this chapter that the


estimated cost of charging outlets per BEV is

5 times



cost estimate of hydrogen fueling cost per FCEV.

C. E. (Sandy) Thomas

Chapter 7. Computer Simulation Model Scenarios

A computer simulation model was written to analyze and compare the likely impacts on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and on fossil fuel consumption of converting from conventional gasoline-powered internal combustion engine vehicles (ICVs) to seven different alternative vehicle/fuel combinations including five electric vehicle combinations described in this chapter; these five scenarios will be used to estimate potential (GHG) and petroleum consumption in Chaps.




: (1) Hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) scenario; (2) Gasoline plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) scenario; (3) Biofuel PHEV scenario; (4) Battery electric vehicle (BEV) scenario; and (5) Fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) scenario. And two other non-conventional alternative fuel vehicles are analyzed in Chap.


: (1) Diesel fuel HEV scenario; and (2) Natural gas HEV scenario.

C. E. (Sandy) Thomas

Chapter 8. Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Alternative Vehicles

This chapter summarizes the key greenhouse gas (GHG) findings from this book. Our analysis shows that only the hydrogen-powered fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) can reach the goal of reducing GHGs by 80 % below 1990 levels. All other alternative vehicle options fall short of this goal.

C. E. (Sandy) Thomas

Chapter 9. Projected Oil Consumption for Alternative Vehicles


his chapter summarizes the alternative vehicle petroleum consumption findings from this book. We analyze the petroleum consumption for all US alternative vehicles and fuels for two time periods similar to the greenhouse gas periods covered in Chap.


: (1) A near-term “Business-as-usual” condition through 2020, and (2) A longer-term assessment over the twenty-first century. Our goal is to reduce oil consumption to a level that all oil imports can be supplied by non-OPEC nations and preferably by friendly nations from the Americas.

C. E. (Sandy) Thomas

Chapter 10. Local Air Pollution

This chapter summarizes the estimated local (urban) air pollution emissions for each of the alternative vehicles analyzed in this book. At the end of the twenty-first century in the USA, local air emissions were the main motivation for developing cleaner, alternative vehicles to reduce smog in major cities, driven primarily by the smog in Los Angeles. Urban air pollution is still a major issue in many urban cities around the world, although climate change and reliance on imported oil from unstable regions of the world are now the main drivers for developed nations to develop and deploy alternative fuels and vehicles.

C. E. (Sandy) Thomas

Chapter 11. Natural Gas and Diesel Hybrid Electric Vehicles

The main thesis of this book is that we must replace the venerable internal combustion engine with an electric motor if we are to build a truly sustainable transportation system. But, some analysts suggest that natural gas or diesel vehicles powering internal combustion engines could make a contribution to reduce GHG emissions, oil imports, and local air pollution. This chapter compares these two fossil fuels with the other EV options discussed earlier. In order to make the strongest case for diesel and natural gas fuels, we assume that both will be used in hybrid electric vehicles to maximize their efficiency and minimize their greenhouse gas emissions and petroleum consumption, even though no automobile company is known to be developing hybrid vehicles running on diesel fuel or natural gas.

C. E. (Sandy) Thomas

Chapter 12. State and International Alternative Vehicle Activities

We conclude from our detailed analysis of alternative vehicles described in previous chapters that hydrogen-powered fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) offer the best potential for a truly sustainable transportation system. In addition to Federal funding for hydrogen and FCEV developments, several US states have developed their own alternative vehicle programs. Several other nations have made significant commitments to develop robust FCEV programs, which should give the automobile companies sufficient hydrogen fueling opportunities to begin large-scale production and deployment of FCEVs.

C. E. (Sandy) Thomas

Chapter 13. Waste to Hydrogen

What if hydrogen could be made from waste products, without using any fossil fuels or creating any local air pollution, while simultaneously


net greenhouse gas emissions and eliminating all petroleum consumption from the transportation sector? Such a project is feasible today using the waste gases generated at landfills or waste water treatment plants. This chapter describes and analyzes the economics of such a waste-to-hydrogen project that is not only feasible today, but makes a 10-year internal rate of return on the project investment of 17.9 % in California, and up to 18.3 % in New York (Long Island) even though New York has not made the commitment to build a significant hydrogen refueling system similar to the California efforts, making this type of hydrogen station a profitable investment in the near term; the economic returns are attractive primarily by displacing electricity (and to a lesser degree heat) to run the wastewater treatment plant; hydrogen sales for fueling vehicles is a minor fraction of the positive cash flows for this system.

C. E. (Sandy) Thomas

Chapter 14. Automobile Companies on FCEVs

Most major automobile companies have been developing FCEVs over the last two decades. This chapter includes some quotations from various auto executives regarding the efficacy of FCEVs and BEVs.

C. E. (Sandy) Thomas

Chapter 15. Conclusions

We conclude that the hydrogen-powered fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) is the best and only option to simultaneously reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, local air pollution, and the consumption of fossil fuels such as petroleum and natural gas. The primary advantage of the FCEV is that it is the


alternative vehicle option that can achieve the societal goal of reducing GHG emissions by 80 % below 1990 levels. But the FCEV also produces the lowest cost urban air pollution, the lowest fueling infrastructure cost per vehicle, and will reach our goal of cutting petroleum consumption to the point where all of our oil could be provided by countries on the American continent (excluding Venezuela!) in an emergency nearly as soon as than any other option.

C. E. (Sandy) Thomas


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