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Über dieses Buch

This book covers the broad spectrum of system dynamics methodologies for the modelling and simulation of complex systems: systems thinking, causal diagrams, systems structure of stock and flow diagrams, parameter estimation and tests for confidence building in system dynamics models. It includes a comprehensive review of model validation and policy design and provides a practical presentation of system dynamics modelling. It also offers numerous worked-out examples and case studies in diverse fields using STELLA and VENSIM. The system dynamics methodologies presented here can be applied to nearly all areas of research and planning, and the simulations provided make the complicated issues more easily understandable. System Dynamics: Modelling and Simulation is an essential system dynamics and systems engineering textbook for undergraduate and graduate courses. It also offers an excellent reference guide for managers in industry and policy planners who wish to use modelling and simulation to manage complex systems more effectively, as well as researchers in the fields of modelling and simulation-based systems thinking.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Concepts, Methodology and Techniques

Frontmatter

1. Introduction

Abstract
This chapter introduces the complexity and change of the dynamic systems, systems thinking and system dynamics as a methodology of systems thinking. Feedback system concepts and mode of behaviour of dynamic systems are highlighted. Model and simulation are defined, systems thinking methodology outlined and usefulness of models are discussed.
Bilash Kanti Bala, Fatimah Mohamed Arshad, Kusairi Mohd Noh

2. Systems Thinking: System Dynamics

Abstract
The concept of systems thinking was introduced in Chap. 1 and this chapter presents systems thinking based on systems approach. Systems thinking methodology, participatory systems thinking and systems thinking in action are presented to demonstrate the potentiality of systems thinking to study complex and dynamic systems. Participatory systems thinking is highlighted.
Bilash Kanti Bala, Fatimah Mohamed Arshad, Kusairi Mohd Noh

3. Causal Loop Diagrams

Abstract
The concept of causal loop diagram was introduced in Chap. 2, and this chapter presents concepts, methodology and techniques of causal loop diagrams. The cause–effect relationships and reinforcing and balancing loops are highlighted with examples. Steps to construct causal loop diagrams are provided. A good number of worked out examples are included to illustrate the techniques of constructing causal loop diagrams for dynamic systems.
Bilash Kanti Bala, Fatimah Mohamed Arshad, Kusairi Mohd Noh

4. Stock and Flow Diagram

Abstract
The concept of stock–flow diagram was introduced in Chap. 2, and this chapter presents concepts, methodology and techniques of constructing stock–flow diagrams. The basic building blocks of the system structure, stock and flow, are explained. Delays and graphical functions are highlighted. Function with and without integrations is presented. A good number of examples are included to demonstrate the techniques of constructing the system structures in terms of stock–flow diagrams and simulation using the software STELLA.
Bilash Kanti Bala, Fatimah Mohamed Arshad, Kusairi Mohd Noh

5. Parameter Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis

Abstract
The computer model based on stock–flow diagram discussed in Chap. 4 needs estimation of parameters and sensitivity analysis of the parameters. This chapter presents parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis. Parameter estimation using aggregated and disaggregated data are discussed. Estimation of table function, conversion factor and normal fractional flow rate is highlighted with examples. Sensitivity analysis and size of solution interval have been explained, and some examples of sensitivity analysis have been presented.
Bilash Kanti Bala, Fatimah Mohamed Arshad, Kusairi Mohd Noh

6. Tests for Confidence Building

Abstract
The models developed based on the concepts, methodology and techniques of system dynamics discussed in the earlier chapters must be tested to build up confidence in the models. This chapter presents the tests for confidence building in the system dynamics models. These tests are discussed under the broad heading of tests for structure, tests for behaviour and tests for policy implications. The logical sequences of conducting these testes are also presented.
Bilash Kanti Bala, Fatimah Mohamed Arshad, Kusairi Mohd Noh

7. Scenario Planning and Modelling

Abstract
The models tested for building up confidence (as discussed in Chap. 6) should be used for scenario planning and modelling. This chapter presents scenario planning and modelling. Participatory system dynamics modelling and scenario planning are broadly discussed and the steps in scenario planning are highlighted. Also, policy planning for development strategy and implementation of development strategy and modelling are discussed. Some examples of scenario planning and modelling are presented.
Bilash Kanti Bala, Fatimah Mohamed Arshad, Kusairi Mohd Noh

Cases and Applications

Frontmatter

8. Modelling of Boom and Bust of Cocoa Production Systems in Malaysia

Abstract
In the previous chapters in Part I, the concepts, methodology and techniques of system dynamics modelling and simulation in the areas of agricultural, biological, environmental and socio-economic systems are presented. This chapter presents applications of system dynamics modelling in ecological systems of boom and bust of cocoa production systems in Malaysia to demonstrate how to construct a system dynamics model and simulate it for policy planning and design. The model presented is an illustration of modelling and simulation of practical problems, and such an experience is essential to face the challenge of modelling and simulation of dynamic systems. To achieve this goal, the model of this case study is organised as follows: (1) introduction, (2) dynamic hypothesis, (3) causal loop diagram, (4) stock–flow diagram, (5) model validation, (6) simulation and policy analysis and (7) conclusion. The simulated results indicate that the collapse of cocoa production systems can be avoided through biodiversity conservation and insect control resulting from sustainable production systems and implementation of such policy demands adequate subsidy to retain high biodiversity, control pest and disease and attain acceptable yields through extension services through farmer field schools.
Bilash Kanti Bala, Fatimah Mohamed Arshad, Kusairi Mohd Noh

9. Modelling of Hilsa Fish (Tenualosa ilisha) Population in Bangladesh

Abstract
In the previous chapter, the modelling and simulation of boom and bust of cocoa production systems in Malaysia have been presented. This chapter demonstrates how to construct a system dynamics model of hilsa fish and simulate the model for policy planning and design for sustainable development. The model presented in this chapter is organised as follows: (1) introduction, (2) dynamic hypothesis, (3) causal loop diagram, (4) stock–flow diagram, (5) model validation, (6) simulation and policy analysis and (7) conclusion to illustrate the system dynamics applications based on systems thinking. Such experiences are essential to face the challenge of modelling and simulation of dynamic systems. The model predicts the long-term trends in the hilsa population over several decades and assesses the impacts of harvesting the juveniles and spawning adults. Simulated results show that increased harvesting of the adults entering the rivers and the juveniles in the rivers cause gradual decline in hilsa fish population and even may cause this valuable resource to disappear within a short period of time. Also the optimal strategies for sustainable development of hilsa fish have been addressed.
Bilash Kanti Bala, Fatimah Mohamed Arshad, Kusairi Mohd Noh

10. Modelling of Food Security in Malaysia

Abstract
In the previous chapter, a case study on modelling and policy implication of hilsa fish population in Bangladesh has been presented. This chapter presents modelling of food security in Malaysia as a case study and application of system dynamics. The model is organised as (1) introduction, (2) dynamic hypothesis, (3) causal loop diagram, (4) stock–flow diagram, (5) model validation, (6) simulation and policy analysis and (7) conclusion. The findings suggest that gradual transition to bio-fertiliser, funding for R&D for development of high-yielding hybrid rice and increasing the cropping intensity hold big promise towards productivity enhancement. The promotion training and extension services using participatory approach of learning by doing or the farmer field schools are desirable to reduce the productivity gap.
Bilash Kanti Bala, Fatimah Mohamed Arshad, Kusairi Mohd Noh

11. Modelling of Supply Chain of Rice Milling Systems in Bangladesh

Abstract
In the previous chapters, case studies on system dynamics modelling of boom and bust of cocoa production systems in Malaysia, modelling of hilsa fish population in Bangladesh and modelling of food security in Malaysia have been presented. This chapter presents the application of system dynamics modelling to supply chain of rice milling systems to demonstrate how to construct system dynamics models and simulate these models for policy planning and design. The model presented is an illustration of modelling and simulation of practical problem to provide management scenarios and policy options, and such experiences are essential to face the challenge of modelling and simulation of dynamic systems in practice. To achieve these goals, the model of this case study is organised as follows: (1) introduction, (2) dynamic hypothesis, (3) causal loop diagram, (4) stock–flow diagram, (5) model validation, (6) simulation and policy analysis and (7) conclusion. The model is simulated to address supply chain management scenarios and design the policy options for efficient and sustainable supply chain management of rice milling systems in Bangladesh to ensure the availability of rice to the consumers in an economic manner under uncertainty. The model has the potential to identify and study the critical components of the overall supply chain, allowing for the creation of an efficient and sustainable network.
Bilash Kanti Bala, Fatimah Mohamed Arshad, Kusairi Mohd Noh

12. Modelling of Solid Waste Management Systems of Dhaka City in Bangladesh

Abstract
In the previous chapters of this part, case studies on system dynamics modelling and simulation of some practical problems have been presented. This chapter presents a case study of environmental management of solid waste management system of Dhaka City, Bangladesh. The model of this case study is organised as (1) introduction, (2) dynamic hypothesis, (3) causal loop diagram, (4) stock–flow diagram, (5) model validation, (6) simulation and policy analysis and (7) conclusion to illustrate the system dynamics applications in environmental management based on systems thinking. Population, uncleared waste, untreated waste, composite index and public concern are projected to increase with time for Dhaka City. Simulated composts, CO2 total, CH4 and BOD from energy, leachate production and BOD from leachate over a period of 30 years are also presented. Simulated results also show that increasing the budget for collection capacity alone does not improve environmental quality; rather an increased budget is required for both collection and treatment of solid wastes of Dhaka City. This model can be used as a tool to assess and design policy options of solid waste management.
Bilash Kanti Bala, Fatimah Mohamed Arshad, Kusairi Mohd Noh

Backmatter

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