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2020 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

3. Taxonomy of Country Risk

verfasst von : Norbert Gaillard

Erschienen in: Country Risk

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

This chapter investigates the numerous forms that country risk may take and also provides illustrations of them. Seven broad components of country risk are scrutinized in turn: international political risks; domestic political and institutional risks; jurisdiction risks; macroeconomic risks; microeconomic risks; sanitary, health, industrial, and environmental risks; and natural and climate risks. Each of these risks consists of various “subrisks” that have specific features. Their effects may be direct or indirect (or both) and may become manifest in the short, medium, or long term. These “subrisks” may be latent or constitute a shock that affects all or only some investors. For instance, environmental risks are much more likely to affect foreign bondholders of corporate debt, shareholders, and especially direct investors—corresponding to type-4, type-5, and type-6 country risks (CR4, CR5, and CR6)—than to affect exporters, importers, and foreign bondholders of sovereign debt, which correspond to type-1, type-2, and type-3 country risks (CR1, CR2, and CR3).

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Vorheriges Kapitel Two Centuries of Country Risk, 1816–2016
Nächstes Kapitel Sovereign Risk Indicators
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Fußnoten
1
As of 1 April 2017, the 30 companies listed on the DJIA were 3M Company (3M), American Express Company (American Express), Apple Inc. (Apple), The Boeing Company (Boeing), Caterpillar Inc. (Caterpillar), Chevron Corporation (Chevron), Cisco Systems, Inc. (Cisco), The Coca-Cola Company (Coca-Cola), The Walt Disney Company (Disney), E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (DuPont), Exxon Mobil Corporation (Exxon Mobil), General Electric Company (General Electric), The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (Goldman Sachs), The Home Depot, Inc. (Home Depot), International Business Machines Corporation (IBM), Intel Corporation (Intel), Johnson & Johnson (Johnson & Johnson), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPMorgan Chase), McDonald’s Corporation (McDonald’s), Merck & Co., Inc. (Merck), Microsoft Corporation (Microsoft), Nike, Inc. (Nike), Pfizer Inc. (Pfizer), The Procter & Gamble Company (Procter & Gamble), The Travelers Companies, Inc. (Travelers), United Technologies Corporation (United Technologies), UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UnitedHealth), Verizon Communications Inc. (Verizon), Visa Inc. (Visa), and Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (Walmart).
 
2
I examine “Item 1A. Risk Factors” of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Form 10-K as filed by the 30 DJIA companies for the fiscal year ended between April 2016 and March 2017.
 
3
R. H. Phillips, “Castro Rules Out Any Foreign Hand in Cuban Affairs,” New York Times, 4 July 1959.
 
4
J. Novitski, “Chile Restores Formal Ties with Cuba; End of Alignment with U.S. Policy Seen,” New York Times, 13 November 1970; “‘Back Off’ Says Venezuela in Light of Bad Economy,” Orlando Sentinel, 6 February 2000.
 
5
See J. de Onis, “Chile to Buy Bethlehem Mines in First Major Take-Over Pact,” New York Times, 27 March 1971.
 
6
See The Williams Companies, Inc. (2003, pp. 23–24; 2004, p. 22) and Hajzler and Rosborough’s (2016) database.
 
7
C. H. Farnsworth, “Belgium and the Congo,” New York Times, 7 January 1967.
 
8
P. Heffernan, “Bonds: Prices of Prime Securities Tend to Decline,” New York Times, 4 April 1961; see also Suter (1990, p. 283).
 
9
The trading range of this bond plummeted from 102–106 in 1958 to 23–37 in 1962 and then to 18–27 in 1969 (Moody’s 1963, p. a4; 1970, p. a3).
 
10
The two embargoes imposed by the United States on Cuba in October 1960 and February 1962 are not studied because they were announced after the wave of expropriations. For the chronology of events, see Peterson Institute for International Economics (2011).
 
13
D. Kneale, “Sullivan Urges Firms to Quit South Africa—Principles’ Author Calls for Broader Sanctions,” Wall Street Journal, 4 June 1987.
 
14
Ibid.
 
15
It is worth remarking that the countries included in this list considerably outnumber those that can be viewed as “rogue states.” For a thorough analysis of this latter concept and the countries it includes, see Saunders (2006).
 
16
The main objective of the Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act was to strengthen Iran sanctions laws for the purpose of compelling that country to abandon its pursuit of nuclear weapons and other threatening activities. See https://​www.​congress.​gov/​112/​plaws/​publ158/​PLAW-112publ158.​pdf.
 
17
The Trading with the Enemy Act of 1917 restricts trade with countries hostile to the United States. The International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 authorizes the President to regulate commerce after declaring a national emergency in response to any unusual and extraordinary threat to the United States that has a foreign source. See https://​definitions.​uslegal.​com/​t/​trading-with-the-enemy-act-twea and https://​definitions.​uslegal.​com/​i/​international-emergency-economic-powers-act.
 
18
Department of Justice, “BNP Paribas Sentenced for Conspiring to Violate the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and the Trading with the Enemy Act,” Office of Public Affairs, Press Release No. 15-549, 1 May 2015.
 
19
The three governments fought against (respectively) Afghanistan and Georgia; Argentina; and Afghanistan, Iraq, and Panama.
 
20
“Ethiopia Set to Privatize 120 State-Owned Enterprises in Next Three Years,” BBC Monitoring Africa—Economic, 24 April 1999.
 
21
C. Johnson, “Many Americans Trapped in Kuwait Escape Detection,” Wall Street Journal, 22 August 1990; D. Medina and C. Phillips, “Companies with Hostages in Persian Gulf Struggle to Help Stateside Families Cope,” Wall Street Journal, 26 September 1990.
 
22
J. P. Hicks, “Earnings Jump 35% at Texaco,” New York Times, 24 January 1991.
 
23
“Earnings/Energy—Exxon, Chevron Profits Surge; Gulf Crisis Cited,” Los Angeles Times, 25 January 1991.
 
24
Author’s calculations based on the Center for Systemic Peace database. An observation is an episode of international violence for a given country. For example, a country involved in a sustained ten-year international conflict will yield one observation.
 
25
About 45% of the countries were already in default when the conflict began; 45% remained solvent in the short to medium term.
 
26
Author’s estimations based on http://​www.​un.​org.
 
27
D. Rieff, “Che’s Second Coming?,” New York Times, 20 November 2005.
 
28
J. de Cordoba, “Bolivia Election Portends Foreign-Investor Clash; Outright Presidential Win Gives Morales Clout to Push for Gas Nationalization,” Wall Street Journal, 20 December 2005.
 
29
See Hajzler and Rosborough’s (2016) database.
 
30
S. Castle, “18 Months after Vote, Belgium Has Government,” New York Times, 2 December 2011.
 
31
“Demagogues Win as Europe’s Populist Tide Sweeps Italy,” New York Times, 6 March 2018.
 
32
“Tito Dies at 87; Last of Wartime Leaders,” New York Times, 5 May 1980.
 
33
Author’s classification based on Powell and Thyne’s (2011) updated database and the Center for Systemic Peace’s database; see www.​systemicpeace.​org.
 
34
J. M. Markham, “Foreign Businesses Are Casualties of Lebanon’s Strife,” New York Times, 17 October 1975.
 
35
D. E. Sanger, “In Manila Coup Effort, Economy Is Big Victim,” New York Times, 20 December 1989.
 
36
Although Seymour Whitaker was not speaking quantitatively, her analysis is corroborated by the decline—for Sub-Saharan Africa—in the ratio of foreign direct investment inflows to GDP: from 1% in 1975 to 0.5% in 1983. This ratio exceeded 2.5% in 2015 (World Development Indicators).
 
37
“10 U.S. Banks Agree to New Terms on $172 Million Bolivia Debt,” New York Times, 13 September 1980.
 
38
The reference period is the IFC fiscal year (i.e., July 1–June 30), so I checked whether a recipient country faced a coup the previous fiscal year. Author’s calculations are based on IFC (various reports) and Powell and Thyne’s (2011) updated database.
 
39
“Coup? What Coup? Thailand’s Bond Market Is Unruffled,” Euroweek, 29 September 2006; J. Maxwell Watts, “Thailand Investors Shrug Off Coup,” Wall Street Journal, 24 May 2014.
 
40
This definition is debatable because some revolutionary processes did not entail violence—for example, the “Velvet Revolution” in Czechoslovakia during 1989.
 
42
“Marriott Is First US Hotel Group to Eye Iran,” Press TV, Tehran, 7 December 2016.
 
43
Ibid.
 
44
E. Dou, J. W. Hsu, and T. K. Vu, “World News: Vietnam Unrest Shakes Foreign Firms,” Wall Street Journal, 17 May 2014; E. Dou and R. Paddock, “Firms Learn Business Risks in Vietnam,” Wall Street Journal, 19 June 2014.
 
45
“The Fun of Being a Multinational,” The Economist, 20 July 1996; “Indonesia: Mining Looks Good, Despite Violent Protests,” Oxford Analytica Daily Brief, 4 April 2006.
 
46
V. Le Billon, “Areva en terrain miné au Niger,” Les Echos, 13 June 2013.
 
47
Here, an observation is an episode of violence for a given country a given year. For example, a country in which a civil war lasts for ten years will yield ten observations.
 
49
M. V. Brauchli, “India’s Violence Fuels Doubt about Course of Economic Reform,” Wall Street Journal, 15 December 1992.
 
50
See K. Damsell, “Argosy Stops Work on Burundi Nickel Mine: Force Majeure Declared,” National Post, 5 May 2000; see also https://​minerals.​usgs.​gov/​minerals/​pubs/​country/​africa.​html.
 
51
Frynas (1998) argues that political instability may be conducive to business precisely when a foreign firm has developed privileged ties with top politicians and civil servants.
 
52
Author’s calculations based on Kobrin (1984).
 
53
Ibid.
 
54
See (respectively) P. L. Montgomery, “Peru Seizing All International Petroleum Assets,” New York Times, 7 February 1969; and “Nigerians Move to Take Over All of BP’s Interests,” Wall Street Journal, 1 August 1979.
 
55
For an overview of the different strategies followed by Latin American economies since the 1990s, see Hira and Gaillard (2011).
 
56
Author’s calculations based on Hajzler and Rosborough’s (2016) database.
 
57
See also D. Molinski, “Helmerich Warns Other Firms after Venezuela Seizes Oil Rigs,” Wall Street Journal, 7 July 2010.
 
58
This threat is part of protectionism risk; see Sect. 3.4.4.
 
59
“EU-Turkey Trade Relations: More Functional Customs Union without Barriers,” US Fed News Service, 15 July 2010.
 
60
R. Colitt, “Brazil Warned over Copyright Violations,” Financial Times, 22 September 2004.
 
61
K. Bradsher, “Looking beyond China, Some Companies Shift Personnel,” New York Times, 10 September 2014.
 
62
The Gulf Cooperation Council includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
 
63
Author’s calculations based on BHP Billiton (2012, p. 166; 2013, p. 193; 2014, p. 215; 2015, p. 203; 2016, p. 154).
 
64
L. Kramer, “The World’s Second-Oldest Profession,” Institutional Investor, September 1998, p. 49; S. Schubert and T. C. Miller, “Managing the Siemens Bribe Budget; Accountant Details Secret Life Distributing $50 Million a Year,” International Herald Tribune, 20 December 2008; T. Soniyi, “Bribe Scandal: Siemens Fined N7 Billion,” This Day, 23 November 2010; T. Pileggi, “Ex-Power Company Execs Charged in Massive Siemens Bribery Case,” The Times of Israel, 3 May 2016.
 
65
M. Esterl, “Corruption Probes Threaten Germany’s Image; Siemens, DaimlerChrysler Get Caught Up in Inquiries; A Backlog of Court Cases,” Wall Street Journal, 24 November 2006.
 
67
Since then, other governments have enacted similar laws (e.g., the Bribery Act in United Kingdom). See Sanyal and Samanta (2011).
 
68
Foreign investors have since developed foreign exchange hedging strategies to minimize currency risk.
 
69
Foreign currency depreciation is actually an opportunity for MNCs intending to purchase assets in the foreign country.
 
70
The world inflation rate dropped from 14% in 1980 to 5.6% in 1997 and 1.4% in 2015 (World Development Indicators).
 
71
World Development Indicators.
 
72
P. Sahu, “Delhi Taps IMF Veteran to Run Central Bank; Raghuram Rajan Is Viewed as a Reform-Minded Outsider in a Policy-Making Role Long Held by Indian Bureaucrats,” Wall Street Journal, 6 August 2013.
 
73
Systemic risk is the possibility that an event at the bank or company level could trigger the collapse of an economy.
 
74
Author’s classification based on Chinn and Ito’s (2006) updated database and the World Bank list of economies as of September 2016.
 
75
E. Hazou, “Call to Ease Restrictions to Stop Flight of Companies,” Cyprus Mail, 29 May 2013.
 
76
The total number of defaulting governments increased by 65% between 1979 and 1986.
 
77
Author’s classification based on Beers and de Leon-Manlagnit’s (2019) database.
 
78
The percentage reported here reflects the two main restructuring plans devised in 1987 and 1988 by, respectively, Argentina and Brazil.
 
79
See http://​www.​globaltradealert​.​org for an exhaustive list of the different protectionist measures; that list identifies not only the implementing governments but also the affected trading partners (countries as well as firms).
 
80
Author’s calculations based on http://​www.​globaltradealert​.​org (data retrieved 16 June 2017).
 
81
A. Schwarz, “Shoe Manufacturers Accused of Exploiting Labour – Running a Business,” Far Eastern Economic Review, 20 June 1991.
 
82
S. Len, “Long Strike at a Nestlé Plant in Korea Comes to an End,” New York Times, 29 November 2003. It is remarkable that Nestlé (2004, 2005) did not mention this exceptionally long strike in its 2003 and 2004 annual reports.
 
83
System failure and technological risk are here viewed as equivalents.
 
84
D. Barboza, “Danone Exits China Venture after Years of Legal Dispute,” New York Times, 30 September 2009.
 
85
Ransomware, cyberattacks, and hacking are idiosyncratic in that their origins are seldom known with certainty. Thus, they cannot constitute a systematic component of country risk.
 
86
S. Sicard, “North Korean Cyber Attack on Sony Poses Tough Security Questions,” National Defense, March 2015.
 
87
See “Excerpts from Agreement between States and Tobacco Industry,” New York Times, 25 June 1997.
 
89
J. Soble, “Takata, Unable to Overcome Airbag Crisis, Files for Bankruptcy Protection,” New York Times, 25 June 2017.
 
91
G. James, “Perrier Recalls Its Water in U.S. after Benzene Is Found in Bottles,” New York Times, 10 February 1990.
 
92
See also L. Craymer, “Fonterra Recall: New Zealand Dairy to Plead Guilty; Company Faces Maximum $425,000 Fine from Four Charges,” Wall Street Journal, 13 March 2014.
 
93
“Rising from the Rubble,” Sunday Times, 24 April 2016.
 
94
S. Warren, “Dow Chemical to Acquire Union Carbide—Deal, Valued at $8.89 Billion, Would Position Firm to Challenge DuPont,” Wall Street Journal, 5 August 1999.
 
95
N. Jayaraman, “Bhopal: Generations of Poison,” Special to CorpWatch, 2 December 2009, available at http://​www.​corpwatch.​org/​article.​php?​id=​15485.
 
96
M. Anane, “Ghana: Cyanide Spill Worst Disaster Ever in West African Nation,” Environment News Service, 24 October 2001, available at http://​www.​corpwatch.​org/​article.​php?​id=​744.
 
97
A catalyst for this changed assessment may well have been publication of the first report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 1990).
 
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Metadaten
Titel
Taxonomy of Country Risk
verfasst von
Norbert Gaillard
Copyright-Jahr
2020
Buch
Country Risk

Print ISBN: 978-3-030-45787-7

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-030-45788-4

Copyright-Jahr: 2020

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-45788-4_3