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Terrorist Risk in Urban Outdoor Built Environment

Measuring and Mitigating via Behavioural Design Approach

  • Open Access
  • 2025
  • Open Access
  • Buch
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Über dieses Buch

Dieses Open-Access-Buch skizziert die neuesten Ergebnisse bei der Analyse, Bewertung und Steuerung terroristischer Risiken im städtischen Außenbereich. Im Einzelnen beziehen sich die Inhalte auf die Freiflächen im Freien (wie Straßen, Plätze, städtische Parks und andere öffentliche Räume in unseren Städten), die solchen gewalttätigen Ereignissen ausgesetzt sind, wobei die physischen Elemente und Eigenschaften der bebauten Umgebung und der Nutzer berücksichtigt werden. PDie Merkmale der gebauten Umgebung, einschließlich Layout, Nutzung und Management, werden mit Problemen terroristischer Bedrohungen und dem Nutzerverhalten in Notsituationen kombiniert, um eine Reihe ergänzender Werkzeuge zur Risikominderung und Steigerung der Widerstandsfähigkeit in den Städten zu bestimmen. Die Inhalte bieten daher unterschiedliche Ebenen der Werkzeuganalyse, für die Definition von Risikoszenarien, Risikobewertung, Konzeption von Minderungsstrategien und Effektivitätsbewertung, wobei traditionelle Ansätze zu diesem Thema ebenso berücksichtigt werden wie simulationsbasierte Ansätze, die auf dem Verständnis und der Darstellung von Nutzerverhalten beruhen. Dieser "verhaltensorientierte Ansatz" bietet die Möglichkeit, das Risikoniveau für bestimmte reale urbane Fälle zu steuern, anstatt die normativen Beschränkungen in Europa zu überschreiten, die nur auf wenige Länder bezogen werden und sich manchmal mit der Verhinderung von Gewalttaten durch nachrichtendienstliche Aktivitäten als der einzigen Möglichkeit befassen, diesem Problem zu begegnen. Darüber hinaus nimmt der Fokus auf die Charakteristika kultureller und historischer Stätten und ihre Widerstandsfähigkeit durch die Einführung von Abmilderungsmaßnahmen und kompatiblen Lösungen zu, die ein ergänzendes Kapitel für die Gestaltung widerstandsfähiger Städte in all ihren Besonderheiten (Peripherien, konsolidierte und historische) darstellen. In diesem Sinne ist es einer der ersten organisierten Versuche, die wichtigsten Beschränkungen aktueller Lösungen in diesen offenen Außenbereichen zu analysieren und gleichzeitig die Bedeutung menschlichen Verhaltens und der verschiedenen Entscheidungen bei der Evakuierung im Notfall klar darzulegen, dank des vorgeschlagenen verhaltensbasierten Simulationsansatzes. Die Aufmerksamkeit richtet sich auf einen kritischen Aspekt für historische Räume, in denen morphologische Bedingungen feste Werte sind. Daher stellt dieses Buch eine Art Leitfaden zu diesen nutzerbezogenen Fragen während solcher gewalttätigen Ereignisse dar und ist sowohl für Fachleute als auch für Forscher in den Bereichen Sicherheit und städtische Verwaltung nützlich.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Open Access

Chapter 1. Introduction
Abstract
Terrorist phenomenon implies complex risks for the urban built environment (BE), due to the combination of perpetrator behaviour, user reaction to possible attacks, and the characterizing features of the BE itself. Among possible scenarios which can attract terrorist acts, outdoor Open Areas (OAs) surely represent critical conditions especially since they are ideal “soft targets”. On one side, OAs can be affected by (over)crowding, as well as can have a symbolic value due to the intended uses hosted outdoors and in the facing buildings. On the other side, OAs are also generally characterized by non-structured protection measures due to the possibility to host public, contrarily to “hard targets”, such as government buildings or critical infrastructures, where restricted access areas, control systems, and security strategies are widely implemented. This chapter traces the principles for understanding terroristic phenomenon in OAs, and provides basic insights to move from the phenomenology of terrorist acts to the definition of Risk Mitigation and Reduction Strategies according to guidelines and normative framework. The role of user behaviour in such sudden-onset emergencies is also discussed by underlining the connection between the terrorist act, the OAs features and the implemented solutions, since these events can also generally imply the activation of evacuation as one of the most effective protection measures to increase users’ safety levels.
Gabriele Bernardini, Elena Cantatore, Fabio Fatiguso, Enrico Quagliarini

Open Access

Chapter 2. Terrorist Risk in Urban Outdoor Built Environment: Influencing Factors and Mitigation Strategies
Abstract
Starting from the established and common principles of the terrorism threat in the cities, this chapter presents the results of the phenomenological analysis in Europe and reorganizes the main literature and international experiences in the prevention, mitigation, and management of the threat in the built environment in order to delineate the factors that influence the risk of outdoor Open Areas (OAs) as “soft targets”. In fact, if several previous experiences have already investigated the effects of events on people involved, the strategies used by perpetrators and tested mitigative strategies in detailed case studies following an “a posteriori” approach, a unique approach to describe and discuss the risk of OAs seems to be still unexplored. The aim is thus reached by merging two levels of details. I) The assessment of events during the last 20 years in Western Europe allows to understand how (the attack type) and why (which uses affect the likelihood of events) OAs are emergent “soft targets”. On the other hand, II) the critical categorization of Risk Mitigation and Reduction Strategies already experimented and regulated in the international panorama helps in highlighting how such soft targets can be physically improved towards resilient parts of the cities.
Gabriele Bernardini, Elena Cantatore, Fabio Fatiguso, Enrico Quagliarini

Open Access

Chapter 3. User Behaviour in Terrorist Acts to Model the Evacuation in Outdoor Open Areas
Abstract
The resilience of the urban built environment to terrorist acts depends on the interactions among the physical scenario, the attackers, the hosted users, and the mitigation solutions (both structural and non-structural), when implemented. Outdoor Open Areas mainly show a high level of complexity in these terms, and thus, expert risk assessment methods to be applied in such contexts should be also supported by simulation-based approaches, which can be able to manage and describe these interactions in a holistic manner. The behavioural design approach can be used to evaluate the impact of different input conditions on final risk levels depending on the users’ response to the terrorist act. In fact, this approach relies on the experimental-based modelling of user behaviours and individual vulnerability, and on the related simulation in emergency and evacuation scenarios. This Chapter hence traces bases for user behaviour modelling in terrorist acts.
Gabriele Bernardini, Elena Cantatore, Fabio Fatiguso, Enrico Quagliarini

Open Access

Chapter 4. Measuring and Improving the Resilience of Outdoor Open Areas Against Terrorist Acts: A Behavioural Design Approach
Abstract
The resilience of the urban outdoor built environment to terrorist acts depends on the interactions among the physical scenario, the attackers, the hosted users, and the mitigation solutions (both structural and non-structural), when implemented. Due to the complexity of the system, expert risk assessment methods should be also supported by simulation-based approaches. In this sense, this chapter first proposes a method to jointly consider hazard, vulnerability, and exposure in outdoor Open Areas (OAs) by then identifying possible emerging typologies and points of attack. Then, the behavioural design approach is used to evaluate the impact of different input conditions on final risk levels depending on the users’ response to the terrorist act. In this sense, the quantification of user exposure and individual vulnerability is provided, since these parameters can vary over time and space, offering a complete view of input scenarios in case of terrorist act in the OAs. Then, the simulation of user behaviours in such defined emergency and evacuation scenarios can be performed thanks to experimental-based models. Key performance indicators (KPIs) are proposed herein to organize simulation results and quantitatively derive the risk levels in the built environment. Finally, regulation-based mitigation and protective strategies are identified, by considering implementation issues, but their effectiveness could be assessed by using the proposed behavioural-design-based methods taking advantage of simulation about the emergency and evacuation process.
Gabriele Bernardini, Elena Cantatore, Fabio Fatiguso, Enrico Quagliarini

Open Access

Chapter 5. A Case Study Application: Vittorio Veneto Square in Matera, Italy
Abstract
The chapter applies the theories and methods for terrorist risk assessment and behavioural analysis presented in this book to the peculiar case study of Vittorio Veneto Square in Matera, a city in the Basilicata region located in the south of Italy. This outdoor Open Area (OA) is representative in view of the presence of several special buildings, defining a high potential level of attractiveness for terrorist acts. Moreover, the square is characterized by a high level of tourist attraction for the strategic position near the “Sassi”, the UNESCO site of Matera, and this condition increases the relevance as a soft target because of significant users’ exposure. Scenarios for risk assessment are first created, and then behavioural-based assessment is performed thanks to a validated simulation model, considering the current conditions of the square. Scenarios referring to the evacuation of the square (without interactions between the crowd and the perpetrators) are compared with those related to an armed assault with cold weapons, using behavioural-based key performance indicators. Then, selected mitigation strategies based on emergency planning, and thus compatible with the cultural and historical relevance of the place, have been considered and tested according to the same approach. Applying the proposed approach is expected to support decision-makers and, mainly, local administrations while evaluating the OAs resilience towards terrorist acts, thus boosting the risk assessment and mitigation planning.
Gabriele Bernardini, Elena Cantatore, Fabio Fatiguso, Enrico Quagliarini

Open Access

Chapter 6. Conclusions and Perspectives
Abstract
Risk assessment and mitigation again terrorist acts in outdoor Open Areas (OAs) should be based not only on the analysis of possible hazard, physical vulnerability, and perpetrator behaviours and “modus operandi”, but also on joint investigation of the user exposure, vulnerability, and behaviours in emergency conditions. A behavioural design approach relying on the analysis of emergency and evacuation via simulation tools could support these tasks, since it is able to represent complex interactions among these factors and to include users’ reaction and needs to the terrorist event. Indeed, this approach should be supported by quick methods for scenario creation, balancing efforts to manage reliable data and to determine critical phenomena in the OAs. This book offers the definition of a risk assessment and mitigation methodology according to such an approach, applying it to a relevant real-world OA to demonstrate its capabilities in supporting local authorities and their technicians in facing terrorist acts in (over)crowded situations. Different conditions in attack points, users’ exposure and vulnerability and implemented mitigation strategies are derived and tested through simulations, allowing to determine users’ risk levels in emergency and evacuation depending on the combination of such inputs. Nevertheless, the capabilities of the methodology and of its tools should be extended, thus needing further efforts related to both research and practice. This chapter first traces an overview of the main objectives and then suggests future directions for this approach development and application according to both researchers and decision-makers’ standpoints.
Gabriele Bernardini, Elena Cantatore, Fabio Fatiguso, Enrico Quagliarini
Titel
Terrorist Risk in Urban Outdoor Built Environment
Verfasst von
Gabriele Bernardini
Elena Cantatore
Fabio Fatiguso
Enrico Quagliarini
Copyright-Jahr
2025
Verlag
Springer Nature Singapore
Electronic ISBN
978-981-9769-65-0
Print ISBN
978-981-9769-64-3
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-97-6965-0

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