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2012 | Buch

The Business of Global Energy Transformation

Saving Billions through Sustainable Models

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Über dieses Buch

One of the first books to analyze business and financial aspects of sustainable transport and fuels systems and provides novel insights for researchers, managers, and politicians who work in energy and sustainability related areas.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

I Mean ‘Business!’

1. I Mean “Business!”
Abstract
Some believe that the development of new sustainable technologies will solve our present problems of climate change and energy security. The most crucial part of this will be the development not of the new technologies themselves, but of sustainable business concepts that allow firms to make a profit from the application of those technologies. The success of this endeavour will rest on our ability to build not only clean energy systems, but profitable businesses based on them. It may be technology that has taken humanity from the cave to today’s technological society, but it is business that has made it possible to invest in technology venture upon technology venture. Business and economics in combination have made it possible for us, as a society, to spend more money each time.
Mats R. Larsson

Emerging Transport and Energy Systems — A Foundation for Growth

Frontmatter
2. The Need for Large-Scale Energy Systems Transformation
Abstract
In my book “Global Energy Transformation — Four Necessary Steps to Make Clean Energy the Next Success Story” I concluded that the challenge of transforming global energy systems on a large scale is unlikely to be solved automatically by market forces as oil prices increase. Instead there will be a need for an analysis of transformation opportunities, large-scale programmes, planning, and managed programmes and projects. These are the “four necessary steps” referred to in the book’s sub-title. The market will not automatically solve global energy transformation because oil is used in huge quantities and the new technologies and fuel and vehicle systems that must be put in place are highly complex. The development and implementation of the renewable energy systems of the future will involve very large, long-term investments and transformation activities carried out by many different players.
Mats R. Larsson
3. Not Technology, but Orgware, Business, and Financing
Abstract
Over the past few years in society there has been an increased focus on energy issues. This has followed from an increasing awareness of the pressing demands of climate change, and an emerging awareness of the even more pressing demands of the global peak in oil production. This has triggered increasing investments in technology development financed by the EU, national governments, and other parties that finance research. Unfortunately, technological development alone is not likely to lead to the large-scale implementation of renewable energy systems.
Mats R. Larsson
4. What Will Happen if We Fail?
Abstract
The consequences of a reduced supply of fuel for transportation are relatively straightforward and can be understood by laymen as well as experts. On a global level, economic development may seem somewhat mysterious and influenced by a number of unpredictable forces that are hard to identify and describe. In order to handle the complexity of large-scale economic environments economists have developed the method of changing one parameter at a time, keeping the others constant. The term used to describe this method is “ceteris paribus,” a Latin expression which means that everything else is kept constant. In order to understand the consequences of decreasing fuel supplies we need to develop a framework for analysis in which other factors are kept constant. Once we have understood the impact of the global peak in oil production we can estimate how large other factors might have to be in order to balance the risks of a reduced supply of oil.
Mats R. Larsson
5. How to Identify Lack of Business Orgware
Abstract
In his book “The Logic of Scientific Discovery”1 the philosopher Karl Popper argues that it is impossible to verify scientifically that something does not exist. To illustrate his point he gave the example of a “black swan.” If someone has seen only white swans it may be tempting to conclude that there are no black swans. In a community of researchers in which none has seen a black swan, this conclusion may become treated as truth. But a researcher may at any time spot a black swan in a remote area that scientists have not previously searched. Instead of trying to verify a theory, Popper argues, scientists can only strengthen it by deriving hypotheses from it, which they then try to falsify. Any test that does not falsify a hypothesis strengthens it, but most hypotheses can only be strengthened, never verified.
Mats R. Larsson
6. The Contents of Business Orgware
Abstract
Having said that we need to develop a broad base of knowledge related to the business challenges of energy transformation, and build financial and market orgware based on this knowledge, we must then ask what this actually means in concrete terms. What knowledge is it, apart from the purely technical challenges of electric vehicle systems, renewable fuels, and other emerging energy-related technologies, that must be mastered by high-level decision-makers in the local, regional, national, and international arenas? What sort of competence is needed by the people who are going to drive strategic ventures and political campaigns in favour of renewable fuels systems forward day-by-day?
Mats R. Larsson
7. Four Categories of Orgware
Abstract
The first type of orgware that is developed in relation to a new technology is technical. In many countries there is already a strong orientation to support technology development in the early phases. National and regional “innovation systems” have been developed, mainly stimulated by the research into the phenomenon of “clusters” that was started by Porter and Olson.
Mats R. Larsson
8. Geographical Aspects of Orgware
Abstract
Until now most projects within areas of renewable fuels, electric vehicles and other emerging energy-related technology areas have been small and local. Projects have focused on building the competence and other resources to put in place “demonstrators” of new technologies, such as a biogas production plant in combination with a number of buses run on gas. In some cases projects have grown beyond the demonstrator stage, as in the case of biogas in Sweden, where regional governments have set a goal of converting their whole fleets of buses and other vehicles to biogas within the next few years.
Mats R. Larsson

Emerging Energy Systems — Sustainable Business Models

Frontmatter
9. Business Situations
Abstract
The most difficult phase in the life of a new technology or business venture is the growth phase from technical testing and small-scale systems introduction to large-scale viability. The decisions that are made during this early phase to a large extent determine the basis, or lack of it, for the long-term viability of these systems.
Mats R. Larsson
10. Business Situations, Technologies, and Emerging Business Models
Abstract
In this chapter we are going to look closely at a number of emerging challenges in the sustainable fuel and technology industries, and in other energy-related industries that are likely to have a substantial impact on the volumes and types of energy that we use.
Mats R. Larsson
11. Smart Grids and New and Visionary Materials Technologies
Abstract
The increased use of plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles will over time create a new area of demand for electricity, which will increase as the number of vehicles increases. The development of the electricity grid is in many ways a nexus for the whole process of global energy transformation, one that will have long-term implications and high levels of complexity. I will not go into this area in depth, but it is worth outlining some of its key features and the choices that are relevant to the reasoning in this book.
Mats R. Larsson
12. Development Opportunities for Well-Established Technologies
Abstract
District heating is already used on a large scale in several countries in Europe. The Brussels based organization Euroheat & Power has developed strategies for expanding the use of district heating across Europe and making existing systems more efficient. Euroheat & Power has categorized countries according to the nature of their challenges in district heating. This is the most advanced example of strategy development for large-scale energy systems transformation that I have been able to identify.
Mats R. Larsson

The Development of Knowledge and Orgware

Frontmatter
13. Development of a Visual Model and Decision-Making Method
Abstract
To facilitate the development of the knowledge, understanding, and orgware that will be necessary in order to drive energy transformation forward, a visual model that will be helpful for analysis, simulation, and decision-making will be needed. The model proposed below organizes knowledge about the various aspects of energy improvement and expresses it visually, to make it easily accessible for everyone who aspires to play a role in the development. At present nobody has a complete picture of what needs to be done, what it will cost in terms of investments or man-hours, or how companies or individuals must change their work practices or lifestyles to achieve the overall set of goals that governments and organizations have started to formulate.
Mats R. Larsson
14. The Role of Orgware in Energy Systems Transformation
Abstract
At this point it suffices to say that the primary orgware needs are different for different energy-using systems and sectors of the economy. Orgware development needs to focus on:
  • Resources for the development of overall strategies for systems integration, financing, and large-scale energy systems transformation.
  • Resources for supranational collaboration.
  • Financing and management of the development of technologies necessary to achieve the overall goals. Some of these, as indicated by the first report published by the American Energy Innovation Council, may not be developed at all if reliance is placed on market-driven transformation alone1.
  • Resources for business development and marketing of prioritized alternatives.
  • Increasing resources for the systems integration and implementation of the most promising alternatives, which includes reducing investments in technologies and systems solutions that are not prioritized.
  • Resources for managing programmes and projects towards ambitious goals.
Mats R. Larsson
15. Doing the Right Thing
Abstract
It is no exaggeration that politicians, business people, and the general public need to radically adapt their picture of the future and the way forward. The paradigm that still forms the basis of economic policies and business plans seems to be based on the assumption that the future can be tackled by laissez-faire policies and business strategies based on the idea of “business as usual.” Even if many individuals, organizations and companies argue that we need to transform energy systems on a large scale, and change many other aspects of society related to our use of energy, there is no sign of an approaching paradigm shift in the way we perceive the future and its opportunities. In the debate that is going on there are few signs that politicians or people expect us to experience a very large wave of investments in new energy systems or in new energy-saving technologies. Instead, most people seem to believe that the market will finance the entire energy systems transformation and that the investments will be relatively small. Compare the reply of the Swedish energy and IT minister to the question from MP Krister Örnfjäder, asserting that the Swedish government has determined that the country will be independent of fossil fuels by 2030, without any indication that this is going to require very large investments in the implementation of new transport systems.
Mats R. Larsson
16. Important Aspects of Change Management
Abstract
“I believe that this country should commit itself before this decade is out to landing a man on the Moon and returning him safely to the earth. No single space project in this period will be more impressive to mankind or more important for the long range exploration of space, and none will be so difficult or expensive to accomplish.”
Mats R. Larsson
17. Conclusion — Billions Can Be Saved, and the Probability of Success Can Be Increased
Abstract
At this point all the clues have been presented to the reader and it is possible to piece together an idea of the optimal strategy for large-scale energy systems transformation for a particular country. The reader may want to spend a few minutes pondering this challenge or continue immediately to a solution that seems to provide optimal energy and financial efficiency. First we look at the current approach and then one based on a number of high-profile technologies. Going a bit further, the third alternative seems to make the best use of our limited resources.
Mats R. Larsson
Backmatter
Metadaten
Titel
The Business of Global Energy Transformation
verfasst von
Mats R. Larsson
Copyright-Jahr
2012
Verlag
Palgrave Macmillan UK
Electronic ISBN
978-1-137-02449-7
Print ISBN
978-1-349-43854-9
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137024497