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Über dieses Buch

Both quantitative and qualitative analysis is used to review China's stock market in a book containing the latest research on China's IPO market, the 2006-07 market bubble, the development of institutional investors, the stock index futures market, stock sector performance, corporate governance of listed firms and China's growth enterprise market.



1. Analysis, Evaluation, and Prediction of China’s Stock Market

For the first decade of China’s stock market (1991–2001), I once gave a detailed analysis and evaluation (Cheng Siwei, 2003a; Cheng Siwei, 2009). In this chapter I shall give my analysis and evaluation for the second decade (2002–2013), and conclude with my prediction for its development prospects.

Siwei Cheng

2. The Emergence of China’s 2006–2007 Stock Market Bubble, and Its Burst

The past 10 years have witnessed a significant fluctuation in China’s stock market: It went through a severe recession from 2004 to 2005, while other stock markets (such as Hong Kong’s stock market and the US stock market, and so on) had already entered a bull market over the corresponding time period. Afterwards, China’s stock market enjoyed unforeseeable prosperity The growth rate of the Shanghai Composite Index reached a record high of 427 percent — far more volatile than other developed markets during the same period.

Ziran Li

3. Mechanisms and Performance of Chinese Bear Markets and Policy Suggestions

In the last chapter, which concerned the 2006–2007 bull market, we analyzed and discussed a number of features related to bull markets in China. Specifically, their formation mechanism, performance characteristics, relevant empirical observations related to index design, as well as their terminal signals. This chapter is structured as follows. In the first section, we will detect the bearish/bullish phases of Chinese stock markets and provide some background information and historical facts. In the second section, we will analyze the ‘risk-return’ trade-off relationships in Chinese stock markets with a focus on the differences of these relationship between bearish and bullish phases. In the third section, we will derive an asset pricing model based on information diffusion; and establish a tri-variate trade-off relationship in terms of amplitude, duration and volatility persistence.1 Finally, we will analyze some institutional problems of Chinese stock markets that have emerged during their adjustment phases.

Ziran Li, Jiajing Sun, Michael Cole

4. Corporate Governance Evaluation Research of China’s Listed Companies

Since over three decades ago, focus on the subject of global corporate governance research has expanded from major developed countries such as Britain, America, Japan and Germany to emerging market countries. Among these, the footprints of China’s corporate reform — the modern corporate system, the Corporate Law, corporate governance structures, corporate governance mechanisms, and so on- have become well-known reform marks. China’s corporate reform has gone through over three decades with corporate governance being the principle line, which is to say that corporate governance is the core of corporate reform. The general prerequisite of corporate reform is change to the economic system. Before 1978, China implemented a planned economy followed by a series of reforms, until the establishment of a market economy system. With the transformation of China’s economic system, corporate governance is also transforming from administrative governance to economic governance, which forms the principle line of China’s corporate governance reform. During the transformation process, China’s corporate governance is experiencing a sublimation process of ‘similarity in form’ to ‘similarity in spirit.’ Looking back on the development of the Chinese economy and its corporate sector over the last three decades or so, we can divide corporate governance practice across the decades into four phases: Concept introduction, structural reform, mechanism building and gradual improvement.

Li Weian, Hao Chen

5. Study on the Comprehensive Stock Market Quality Evaluation System

In the past two decades China’s stock market has achieved great progress, not only in market value but also in its system and operational mechanisms. In general, it has grown increasingly healthy. However, at present, when investors and stakeholders evaluate a stock market, they still tend to focus on the stock market index to measure the overall fluctuation of the market (for example the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and so on). This is problematic. First, such indices have certain faults in their calculation methods, which cannot effectively reflect the real situation of the market. Secondly, various sides only stress price indices, instead of observing and evaluating the comprehensive quality of a stock market. As the mainstream stock market indices have design faults and market observations are not multi-dimensional, there is a necessity to discuss the building of a comprehensive evaluation system for China’s stock market. This is the first topic of this chapter. The second is to design a reasonable and multidimensional evaluation system and choose reasonable variables to represent the needed indicators. The third topic is to analyze each indicator’s changes over a decade and discuss their reasonable interval values respectively. The fourth is to determine each indicator’s weight and therefore build a comprehensive evaluation system for China’s stock market. Lastly, this chapter discusses changes in the comprehensive quality of China’s stock market over the last decade and compares and contrasts China’s stock market with those in both developed and other BRIC countries.

Guo Kun


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