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Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

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15.08.2020 | Original article

The climate-induced alteration of future geographic distribution of aflatoxin in peanut crops and its adaptation options

verfasst von: Haerani Haerani, Armando Apan, Badri Basnet

Erschienen in: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change | Ausgabe 6/2020

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Abstract

Because of its negative effect on health, aflatoxin has become one of the most important mycotoxins in the world. As climate stress is one of the main triggers of aflatoxin incidence, climate change could affect its geographic distribution. The primary aim of this study was to examine the effect of climate change on the future distribution of aflatoxin in peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) crops in Australia. The projected distributions in 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100 were modelled by employing the CLIMEX (CLIMatic indEX) model using two global climate models (GCMs), i.e. CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H based on SRES A2 and SRES A1B climate scenarios. This study has successfully developed CLIMEX model parameters for aflatoxin and confirmed the climatic zone preference of aflatoxin incidence, as concluded by other studies. Therefore, the model parameters are applicable in all parts of the world. The projection results in Australia confirm that climate change affects the future distribution of aflatoxin, including the distribution in the current peanut-growing areas. Shifts in aflatoxin invasion areas from the tropical and subtropical climate zones of the eastern part of Australia to the temperate climate zones of the south-eastern and south-western parts of the country were projected by 2100. Thus, adaptation and mitigation measures are needed to overcome the negative impacts in the future. Options for these measures include relocation of planting areas, development of host-plant resistance, proper agricultural practices, and mitigation actions by using physical, chemical, and biological approaches.

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Titel: The climate-induced alteration of future geographic distribution of aflatoxin in peanut crops and its adaptation options
verfasst von: Haerani Haerani
Armando Apan
Badri Basnet
Publikationsdatum: 15.08.2020
Verlag: Springer Netherlands
Erschienen in: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change / Ausgabe 6/2020
Print ISSN: 1381-2386
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-1596
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-020-09927-0

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