The Collapse of North Korea

Challenges, Planning and Geopolitics of Unification

verfasst von: Dr. Tara O

Verlag: Palgrave Macmillan UK

Enthalten in: Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" , Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" , Springer Professional "Technik"

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Über dieses Buch

This book highlights the increasing risk of North Korea’s collapse and considers the necessary actions that would enable the neighboring powers to prepare for such an event. North Korea's deteriorating economic conditions, its reliance on external assistance, and the degree of information penetration all provide hints of its collapse. Whether the chance is high or low, the collapse of North Korea and subsequent Korean unification would drastically alter the geostrategic landscape and profoundly affect the national interests of the regional powers—South Korea, China, the United States, Japan, and Russia. The most desirable scenario for a post-unification Korean Peninsula is a successfully developed and integrated non-nuclear Korea acting as a responsible regional and world stakeholder. This work considers the major challenges expected after a North Korean collapse, including the control of nuclear weapons, disorder in the immediate aftermath of collapse, and economic and social integration. The author then outlines how regional powers need to prepare to handle these challenges in order to minimize suffering and to set the foundation for long-term development and regional stability.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Chapter 1. Introduction

Abstract

A collapsed North Korea would be a watershed event, unleashing dynamics that would redefine the geopolitical landscape and test the future of the region. The regional powers—South Korea, China, Japan, Russia, and the United States—are ill prepared to handle short-and long-term challenges to their vital national interests emerging from a collapsed North Korea. If Pyongyang collapses, the result could be mass migration, mass suffering due to political, institutional, and economic instability, and uncontrolled nuclear weapons. The regional powers should anticipate several possible scenarios and develop plans to mitigate negative consequences.

Tara O

Chapter 2. The Unification Scenarios and Cost

Abstract

A review of various unification scenarios provides a broader context for analysis. The three most common types of scenarios are peaceful and gradual unification, war leading to unification, and the collapse of North Korea and unification by default. Some scenarios such as war might be combined with the collapse case, which makes understanding the other scenarios pertinent. There are costs associated with these scenarios. And since these costs and the means to meet these expenses are major parts of unification planning, this chapter will also review various unification cost estimates.

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Chapter 3. Thinking About Collapse: Indicators and Triggers

Abstract

This chapter examines indicators and triggers of a collapse. Various indicators, such as the deteriorating economic conditions, external assistance, and information penetration, provide clues to a possible collapse in North Korea. These indicators, along with a triggering event such as another famine, leadership disaffection, or mass migration, should be monitored closely to assess whether and when North Korea might collapse so that preparations can be made by the international community to meet this contingency with appropriate responses.

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Chapter 4. Geopolitical Landscape and Regional Bilateral Issues

Abstract

A complex set of national interests of South Korea, North Korea, the United States, China, Japan, and Russia converge or clash on the Korean Peninsula, creating multifaceted international relations, including alliances, trade, investments, shared histories, and war. The collapse of North Korea and subsequent Korean unification would alter the geostrategic landscape and profoundly affect the national interests. Korea will need support from the international community in a collapse situation, especially from the regional powers, for stabilization and reconstruction. This chapter examines the national interests and concerns of each major player, ongoing bilateral issues, and areas for possible cooperation in the event of a North Korea’s collapse.

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Chapter 5. Preparing for and Responding to Collapse

Abstract

This chapter reviews numerous challenges posed by a collapse and explores potential responses to mitigate the problems. Immediate issues include nuclear weapons loss, disorder and chaos, rescuing political camp prisoners, provision of food and basic needs, and mass migration. Medium- to long-term issues include unemployment, elites, poor infrastructure, military integration, social integration, and economic development. How these challenges are handled, and by whom, would affect stability on the peninsula and international relations in the region. It will take concerted effort to manage the aftermath of collapse.

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Chapter 6. Summary

Abstract

The North Korean regime cannot execute one of the most important functions of a government—feeding its people—which damages its legitimacy. It is unlikely to implement substantive reform and open up its economy, because such actions could invite new ideas that would challenge the regime itself. This unsustainable posture could lead to a collapse. After reviewing various unification scenarios, the author identified indicators and triggers of collapse. A collapse would be a momentous event that could drastically change the geopolitical realities in a region where some of the world’s major powers’ interests converge. These powers need to cooperate and prepare for such an event, because the challenges would be too great to ignore.

Tara O

Correction to: The Collapse of North Korea

Tara O

Backmatter

Titel: The Collapse of North Korea
verfasst von: Dr. Tara O
Verlag: Palgrave Macmillan UK
Electronic ISBN: 978-1-137-59801-1
Print ISBN: 978-1-137-59800-4
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-59801-1