The Complexity of the Malthusian Trap and Potential Routes of Escape

One of the most challenging subjects in economic growth theory is the study of economic development ranging from Malthusian stagnation to the modern growth regime within a unified model. Recent work in this area includes Becker et al. (1999), Galor and Weil (1998), Goodfriend and McDermott (1995), Jones (1999) and Kremer (1993). While the Malthusian regime is characterised by low and non-growing per capita output and high mortality and fertility, constant growth rates of per capita output and low levels of fertility and mortality will prevail in the modern growth regime. Moreover, the relation between population growth and per capita income will be positive in the Malthusian regime and turn negative in the modern growth regime. “Demographic transition” is the theoretical concept that explains the change in the relation between per capita income and population growth.