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2012 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

4. The Conception of the International Global Monitoring Aerospace System (IGMASS)

verfasst von : Valery A. Menshikov, Anatoly N. Perminov, Yuri M. Urlichich

Erschienen in: Global Aerospace Monitoring and Disaster Management

Verlag: Springer Vienna

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Abstract

These original materials – the conception of the International Global Monitoring Aerospace System(IGMASS) as a system for forecasting destructive natural phenomena and man-made disasters in order to guarantee social, economic, seismic, environmental and geophysical safety, the prevention of other global space threats, as well as the development of information-navigation and telecommunication resources for the planet for the benefit of all humanity – were developed by an innovative team of specialists of the International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) and Russian Academy of Cosmonautics n.a. K.E. Tsiolkovsky (RAKTS). The proposal to create IGMASS was first openly expressed at the International Conference “Modern Space Technologies for the Prosperity of Humanity” (Dnepropetrovsk, Ukraine, 2007). Later it was reported at the International Scientific Forums “Space for Humanity” (Korolyov, Russia, 2008), “Advanced Space Systems and Applications” (Shanghai, China, 2008), at the Mediterranean Conference on Astronautics (Tunisia, 2008), and also at the Academic Day of the International Academy of Astronautics (Glasgow, Scotland, 2008). In 2009 a special international working group of experts (from the USA, France, Germany, Russia, Japan, Italy, India, China, Ukraine, Belarus, Bulgaria, and Tunisia) was formed within the IAA to study the possibility and prospects of the creation of IGMASS. The results of the work of this group were discussed and strongly supported by the heads of several national space institutions, the managers of leading enterprises of the rocket–space industry, outstanding scientists and administrators from more than two dozen countries during the First International Specialized Symposium on “Space and Global Security of Humanity,” which was held in November 2009 in Limassol (Cyprus).

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Vorheriges Kapitel Global Risks and Threats to Humanity from Outer Space: Prospects of Warning and Parrying

Nächstes Kapitel Space Exploration and Formation of the “Information Field of Global Security”: A New Paradigm of Sustainable Development

Monitoring is a process of systematic or continuous collection of information on the parameters of a complex object or process.

Thus, in 2008 alone there were 137 natural and 174 man-made disasters that had taken nearly a quarter of a million lives on the planet. According to international organizations from 1970 to 2000 the amount of damage, i.e., the cost to humanity of natural and technological disasters, was about one and a half trillion dollars.

The Sun is a magnetically active star with a strong electromagnetic field, the intensity and direction of which periodically varies. The Sun affects the Earth and in accordance with the rotation around its axis (27 days), the annual circulation of the Earth and its daily rotation. Variations of solar activity and the solar magnetic field exert an influence on the structure of the magnetosphere, the ionosphere, and the Earth's atmosphere, causing a variety of effects which altogether cause the Earth auroras and geomagnetic storms, disrupting the operation of communications, electricity, as well as having negative impacts on living organisms, including human beings. Solar and lunar gravitational effects on the Earth's crust are the “trigger” for the onset of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.

The influence of gravitation from our natural satellite pulls water on the surface of the Earth up to 0.5 m towards the Moon and causes tides.

An asteroid that approached the Earth and that was not detected by any telescope exploded on the 8th of October, 2009 in the atmosphere of the Earth at an altitude of about 15–20 km over the province of Southern Sulawesi (Indonesia). According to NASA, the destruction of this stone space object with a diameter of about 10 m and that entered the atmosphere at a speed of 20 km/s, caused an energy release equal to 50 thousand tons of TNT, i.e., three times the power of the explosion of the atomic bomb over Hiroshima and it was detected by the Western Ontario university observatory in Canada, which was 16 thousand km from the epicenter of the event.

The maximum range of detection by ground-based facilities of asteroids with a size no less than 1 km does not exceed 2–2.5 million km. This means that at an average closing rate of the asteroid with the Earth (20 km/s) a collision can occur in less than 1.5 days, which is insufficient for any effective security measures to be undertaken.

The number of such precursors is more than 300. However, statistics confirming the reliability of forecasting according to precursors – is absent, only individual events are described. Therefore, problems related to forecasting can only be effectively solved by registration of precursors in their totality in all environments.

There are also a number of international, regional, and national projects and programs (UN-SPIDER, “Global Earth Observation System of Systems” (GEOSS), “The European Global Monitoring of Environment and Security” (GMES), “The System of Monitoring Natural Disasters in Asia Pacific Region” (Sentinel Asia), “The International Charter on Space and Major Disasters” (Disaster Charter), “The monitoring system of natural and technological disasters” “Ionosat” (Ukraine), etc.), which focus more on providing mitigation of consequences than on their prevention, and still less – forecasting.

According to the current classification space vehicles with a mass of 100–1,000 kg belong to the category of small spacecraft (SSV), about 100 kg – microspacecraft.

In 2007–2008 the proportion of spacecraft for communication, broadcasting, navigation, and hydrometeorology exceeded 85% of the total number of all spacecraft launched by the world community into Earth orbit (92 of 113 spacecraft in 2007 and 87 of 97 spacecraft in 2008).

Presently, there are about a dozen meteorological satellites belonging to the U.S. (NOAA-K, DMSP5D-3), ESA (Metop-A), China (FY-1D, FY-3), and Russia (Meteor-M) in the subpolar geosynchronous orbit.

Spacecraft, created by the U.S. (GOES), the European Union (Meteosat, MGS), Japan (MTSAT-1R), India (Metsat-1, Insat-3A), China (FY-2 C, D, E), and Russia (Elektro-L in 2010) are placed in geostationary orbit.

At the same time in GEOSS it is expected that various ground-sensor equipment, weather stations, weather sensors, sonars and radars, a set of 60 satellites, including the navigation constellation “NAVSTAR,” a powerful package for modeling, simulation and forecasting, as well as facilities for early warning of the population in countries and regions at risk, will be integrated.

The program budget has been approved in the amount of 2.2 billion Euros.

In relation to the fact that in 2008 ESA initiated the deployment of the global space navigation system Galileo, it has its own space hydrometeorology systems (9 SV), communication and broadcasting (16 SV), and as a part of the constellation GMES in some periods can operate with over 70 satellite vehicles.

The architecture of the project is being developed with the possibility of receiving and processing imagery and textual information voluntarily submitted by Asia-Pacific countries from satellite remote sensing systems, including geostationary platforms.

Some dangerous man-made disasters occur as a result of the gradual merging and interaction of complex technical systems with the natural environment (geotechnical processes and systems).

Criteria for forecast requirements for IGMASS can be divided into four groups, which are long-term (years, decades), medium-term (1 year), short-term (up to 10 days), and operational (day-hour) types of forecast. Short-term and operational forecasts apply to dangerous meteo-phenomena, medium – to the prevention of meteoroid/asteroid dangers and natural disasters of geological origin, and long-term – global natural disasters of geological origin.

Today a number of anomalous phenomena in the atmosphere, ionosphere, and on the Earth's surface are known that can potentially be considered as signs of an upcoming seismic phenomenon. These include a sudden change in the concentration of electronic components and arising of large-scale irregularities in the F2 layer of the ionosphere, and ultra-high-and-low frequency electromagnetic waves, abnormal changes in the quasi-steady electric field and magnetic field; variations in the composition, concentration, flow rate, and temperature of the ionospheric plasma; intense glow of the atmosphere at frequencies corresponding to the vibrational spectra of atomic oxygen and hydroxyl; emissions of radon and metalized surface of aerosols in the atmosphere; raising the Earth’s surface temperature, forming of aerosol clouds above active faults, etc.

Space warning subsystem on the asteroid and meteoroid risk within IGMASS in conjunction with existing and pro-spective ground-based facilities should ensure high reliability of objects detection larger than 50 m at distances of at least 15 mln km.

One of the projects in deep space is expected to deploy three satellite-telescopes: two of which are placed in the orbit of revolution of the Earth around the Sun, providing the detection of large asteroids at distances of up to 10 million km, and the third – with a long-focus telescope (17 m), located in the Lagrangian libration point between the Earth and the Sun, providing accurate determination of motion parameters of identified objects threatening the world and forecasts of objects closing to dangerous proximity to the Earth (with a warning period of at least 3 days). See Chapter III of the book.

The management company or an International consortium legalized in a special agreement, a temporary association of independent business and government agencies for the realization of a major international project, co-location of industrial orders, conducting industrial large-scale credit, financial and marketing operations, and coordination of activities to obtain beneficial contracts and their joint performance.

The basis of the IGMASS Consortium consists of: suppliers of space products and services, corporate users, research institutes, universities and research labs, and interested government agencies of various countries. Consortium members send technical experts and representatives to attend its various groups: these groups will conduct major technical work for the Consortium – the result of their activities are technical reports on various aspects of creating and using the system, subprojects, software tools with open access to various monitoring products and services.

Meньшикoв B.A. и дp. Кoмплeкcнoe иcпoльзoвaниe кocмичecкиx cpeдcтв нaблюдeния зa пoвepxнocтью Зeмли, мeтeopoлoгичecкoгo и нaвигaциoннoгo oбecпeчeния в интepecax oпepaтивнoгo кoнтpoля пpиpoдныx pecуpcoв, cтaциoнapныx и пoдвижныx oбъeктoв. 57 Meждунapoдный кocмичecкий кoнгpecc. – Baлeнcия, Иcпaния, 2006. (Russian).

Maтepиaлы пo Глoбaльнoй cиcтeмe cиcтeм нaблюдeния Зeмли (GEOSS).www.epa.gov/GEOSS(Russian).

Maтepиaлы пo Cиcтeмe глoбaльнoгo мoнитopингa в интepecax oкpужaющeй cpeды и oбecпeчeния бeзoпacнocти (GMES). www.gmes.info/(Russian).

Maтepиaлы пo Cиcтeмe пpeдупpeждeния o кaтacтpoфax и cтиxийныx бeдcтвияx («Sentinel Asia»). www.asiasentinel.com/index.php(Russian).

Maтepиaлы пo Cиcтeмe мoнитopингa cтиxийныx бeдcтвий (DMS). www.pryroda.gov.ua/index.php.newsid.(Russian).

Maтepиaлы пo Пpoeкту « Meждунapoднaя xapтия « Кocмoc и кpупныe кaтacтpoфы». www.oosa.unvienna.org/pdf/reports/ac105_841R.pdf.(Russian).

MeньШиков, B.A., Пepминов, A.H., О.M. Уpличич Γлобальныe пpоблeмы чeловeчecтва и коcмоcа – M.: HИИ KC имeни A.A. Mакcимова, 2010. (Russian) – 570c.

Ranganath Navalgund, Valery Menshikov, Joseph Akinyede Space-Based disaster Managment: the Weed for international cooperation IAA, Bengalor-Paris, 2010, 80 p. (Heads of space Agencies Summit on November 17, 2010 in Washington)

Titel: The Conception of the International Global Monitoring Aerospace System (IGMASS)
verfasst von: Valery A. Menshikov
Anatoly N. Perminov
Yuri M. Urlichich
Verlag: Springer Vienna
Buch: Global Aerospace Monitoring and Disaster Management
Print ISBN: 978-3-7091-0809-3

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-7091-0810-9

Copyright-Jahr: 2012
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7091-0810-9_4

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