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Erschienen in:
2017 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel
4. The Consumption Models
verfasst von : John J. Heim
Erschienen in: An Econometric Model of the US Economy
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Abstract
Seven separate consumption models are developed and tested, including total consumption and consumption of only domestically produced goods and services. Key determinants were found to be disposable income, “crowd out” due to government deficits (which reduces consumer borrowing), interest rates, wealth, population growth, past savings, and access to borrowing. Other models developed and tested include consumption of imports, durable goods, nondurables, consumption of services, and one model describing what determines the level of consumer borrowing. Initial findings are tested exhaustively to ensure they hold up when testing other time periods or when other variables are included in the model. This is how the book ensures its results represent good science.