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1973 | Buch

The Economic Growth Controversy

herausgegeben von: Andrew Weintraub, Eli Schwartz, J. Richard Aronson

Verlag: Palgrave Macmillan UK

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Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter
1. Growth and antigrowth: what are the issues?
Abstract
The debate on the growth-antigrowth theme has become a fashionable pastime over the last five years. And since its continued enjoyment must depend to a large extent on its inconclusiveness, it would be boorish as well as presumptuous to propose that we try to reach a settled conclusion. Not that I think there is much danger of that happening, however. The reverse is rather to be feared: that the present enjoyment in witnessing the continual conflicts of opinion will become marred by a growing sense of frustration—not so much a frustration at being unable to reach a firm conclusion as a frustration arising from repeated failure to organize our thoughts on the subject and to acquire perspective.
E. J. Mishan
2. Is the end of the world at hand?
Abstract
I was having a hard time figuring out how to begin when I came across an excerpt from an interview with my MIT colleague Professor Jay Forrester, who is either the Christopher Columbus or the Dr. Strangelove of this business, depending on how you look at it. Forrester said he would like to see about a hundred people, the most gifted and best qualified in the world, brought together in a team to make a psychosocial analysis of the problem of world equilibrium. He thought it would take about ten years. When he was asked to define the composition of his problem-solving group, Forrester said: “Above all it shouldn’t be mostly made up of professors. One would include people who had been successful in their personal careers, whether in politics, business, or anywhere else. We should also need radical philosophers, but we should take care to keep out representatives of the social sciences. Such people always want to go to the bottom of a particular problem. What we want to look at are the problems caused by interactions.”
Robert M. Solow
3. Can technological progress continue to provide for the future?
Abstract
As an historian, I am obligated to point out that technology did not progress very rapidly for most of man’s history. Until the last two centuries, technology developed irregularly and at so slow a pace that, for most of human history, the mass of mankind lived in a world of scarcity and deprivation. The Industrial Revolution ushered in an era of rapid technological advance. In accelerating measure since then, technological developments have increased man’s control over his environment, ministered to his animal needs and creature comforts, rescued him from the ever-present fear of starvation, increased his mobility, lengthened his lifespan, and, in general, made work easier and life more comfortable for most of the population in the industrialized nations of the world.
Melvin Kranzberg
4. Energy supply as a factor in economic growth
Abstract
Growth in energy consumption is an essential concomitant of economic growth. The growth in energy consumption broadly reflects the rate of capital accumulation since capital accumulation in large measure consists of equipment designed to harness inanimate energy resources. Significant curtailment of the rate of growth of energy consumption cannot be accomplished, therefore, without curtailment of the rate of capital accumulation and of economic growth. This is not to say that improvements in the efficiency of energy use cannot or should not be sought to the fullest extent possible as a means of moderating the growth in energy consumption. However, these are likely to have only marginal effects on total energy requirements. One may debate whether economic growth itself is desirable, but such growth, to the extent it occurs, will require commensurate growth in energy consumption.
Abraham Gerber
5. Growth and environmental problems of noncapitalist nations
Abstract
Now that it is intellectually acceptable to devote a conference to what was until recently the indiscreet subject of zero economic growth (ZEG), a major question remains: If we decide we want it, how do we get it? For many the answer is clear—abolish capitalism.
Marshall I. Goldman
6. Social consequences of zero economic growth
Abstract
The social consequences of a zero-growth rate constitute a vast and complex subject. What I intend is to outline an analytical approach for consideration of the topic and follow this with some specific examples of the social consequences most likely to emanate from a condition of zero economic growth. I am not going to discuss how zero economic growth might be either brought about or retained;1 my focus here will be on the consequences.*
Lincoln H. Day
7. Zero economic growth and the distribution of income
Abstract
Earlier in these sessions, geological time was made comprehensible to our finite human minds by the statement that the 4 1/2 billion years of earth’s history was equivalent to once around the world in an SST. If I remember the numbers correctly, man got on eight miles before the end, and industrial man got on six feet before the end. The participants in this symposium all got on some fraction of a millimeter before the end, and today we are having a debate about the extent to which man ought to maximize the length of time that he is on that airplane.
Lester Thurow
8. Is there an optimum level of population?
Abstract
It may seem intuitively obvious that a country should have an optimum population level: i.e., the citizens of the country would be better off at this level of population than if the population, were less or if it were greater. But intuition can be misleading; therefore, a more careful analysis is needed.
S. Fred Singer
9. Discussion of the papers
Abstract
This section presents the formal reactions of selected discussants to certain of the papers already presented in this volume. Each discussant was chosen for his expertise in the field of inquiry covered by the respective papers. Jay Anderson and Joel Darmstadter discuss the papers by Kranzberg and Gerber. David Amidon and Simon Rottenberg comment on the contributions of Goldman and Day. Barry Chiswick and Richard Easterlin discuss the papers presented by Thurow and Singer.
Andrew Weintraub, Eli Schwartz, J. Richard Aronson
10. A dialogue on the issues
Abstract
The following dialogue is taken from the television program entitled “The Economic Growth Controversy,” produced in conjunction with the Lehigh Symposium by the Lehigh Valley Educational Television Corporation, WLVT-TV, an affiliate of the National Education Television Network.
Andrew Weintraub, Eli Schwartz, J. Richard Aronson
11. The club of rome model
Abstract
The mathematical modeling and computer analysis of economic and social systems, epitomized by the Club of Rome world model, has developed rapidly in the last decade. This activity, which has arisen because of the need to better understand the evolution of our complex, highly structured society, has become possible with the availability of powerful computers which provide solutions to large, complex mathematical models. However, until recently the quantitative analysis of economic and social systems has been essentially limited to studies of segments of society, such as the operations of a corporation, the growth and decay of an urban area, or the development of a particular industry. The Club of Rome model is the first attempt to analyze the evolution of the entire world system. The model provides longterm projections of such major factors as world population, pollution, per capita food supply, natural resource utilization, and capital investment. The model and its computer output have received widespread comment, both favorable and unfavorable. Much of the reaction has been based on an incomplete understanding of the model and how it generates numerical results.*
W. E. Schiesser
Metadaten
Titel
The Economic Growth Controversy
herausgegeben von
Andrew Weintraub
Eli Schwartz
J. Richard Aronson
Copyright-Jahr
1973
Verlag
Palgrave Macmillan UK
Electronic ISBN
978-1-349-02214-4
Print ISBN
978-1-349-02216-8
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-02214-4